Week 13: Great Expectations

So, literally 20 minutes ago, Tim asked me a question about one of his lineups that initially seemed like a no-brainer but ended up being one of the tougher questions I've ever come across. His question:

Do I start Tom Brady or Sam Bradford?

Now, at the beginning of the year, if I was asked this, I probably would have answered with something resembling: "Are you serious? For future reference, you're meant to stop the Q-tip when you feel resistance!" Now, I'm not sure. Who would I pick?

For starters, you have to look at the matchups. Brady is at home against the Jets. Bradford is on the road at Arizona. Bradford obviously has the better matchup. Next, we'll look at the previous times that each player faced their opponent. For Brady, Week 2. He threw for 248 yards, 2 TDs, and had 3 turnovers. 11 fantasy points. For Bradford, Week 1. He had 253 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. 8 fantasy points. So now I need to make my decision. Who do I go with? both had terrible games the last times they played these opponents. Brady faces a top notch pass defense, Bradford faces a defense that can be gashed by either air or ground, so he may be handing the ball off to Steven Jackson a lot. But who do I pick?

I'd have to say Brady. He has been on fire lately and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. The only other time he has thrown an interception in a game, though? Week 2 against the Jets. Just be careful and, above all, don't get cute. Brady is the better fantasy quarterback here. He's who you want to go with. But ask me this same question again in a year or two, I'm saying Bradford.

So, from there, here's who I think Exceeds Expectations in Week 13.

Michael Vick (vs. Houston): Houston is 32nd against fantasy quarterbacks. The Eagles just lost a game in embarrassing fashion. They're gonna be angry and come out with every intention of destroying Houston. I don't know how else to say this other than GENTLEMEN, START! YOUR! EAGLES!

Kyle Orton (at Kansas City): Remember what he did last time these two teams played? Yeah, I'm liking Orton this week.

Matt Cassel (vs. Denver): But I don't think KC rolls over. Cassel is arguably the hottest QB right now and should be started by everyone. I think he finds Dwayne Bowe again. Start them both.

Josh Freeman (vs. Atlanta): Atlanta's secondary isn't that good, in all honesty. Freeman won't get you the huge numbers but if you want a consistent 15-20 points, he's your guy. He has only 2 INTs since Week 6 too. A sneaky play, if you want.

Sam Bradford (at Arizona): See above.

Darren McFadden (at San Diego): He's had two straight bad games, has missed two games, and is still the 11th overall running back! I think he bounces back this week. My reasoning? Gut call, tis all.

Matt Forte (at Detroit): He historically gashes the Lions. The Lions are starting Drew Stanton at QB. Drew Stanton is a bad QB. The Bears will get up big. The Bears will then run the ball. That's what Forte does (I would've said does best but he actually catches the ball better than he runs it). Start Forte.

Steven Jackson (at Arizona): Arizona is bad. Next!

Fred Jackson (at Minnesota): His fantasy scores the past three weeks: 26, 24, 21. Ride the hot streak!

Steve Johnson (at Minnesota): After he had the dropsies last week, I think he bounces back with a big one. He'll be fine.

Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (vs. Houston): See Michael Vick.

Terrell Owens (vs. New Orleans): Only 17 yards last week. He'll get more than that against the Saints.

Lance Moore (at Cincinnati): He's quietly put together a good fantasy season. Cincy is not a good team. I think he finds the endzone this week.

Johnny Knox (at Detroit): He's Jay Cutler's favorite target. And Detroit's secondary looked pitiful last week against the Patriots.

Malcom Floyd (vs. Oakland): No Nnamdi Asomugha. And no Vincent Jackson, most likely. Gates is hurt. Do you remember what Floyd did the last time he faced the Raiders? 8 catches, 213 yards, and a TD. To the starting lineup with you!

Tony Moeaki (at Denver): He scored last week after being held out of the previous game with a head injury. Denver's defense is not bad. Moeaki is having a pretty good rookie season. If you've been going with a tight end rotation this year, he could be a nice fill in.