Week 3: What I Learned From Sunday

We're three weeks in and we're starting to get an idea of how things will develop from here on out. This is also around the time where I learn how good my predictions were (or how horribly wrong I was). With that being said, here's what I learned from the third Sunday of the year.

1. There were more unexpected big scorers this week. Last week, I mentioned how there will always be the unexpected big scorer. While nobody broke 40 points this week, that isn't to say that there weren't any surprises. For that, I want to look at the wide receivers that scored in the top 5 this week. They were, in order, Anquan Boldin (32), Austin Collie (29), Lance Moore (26), Roy Williams (23), Brandon Lloyd (22), Brandon Marshall (22), and Mike Wallace (22). What do I take away from this? For starters, out of these seven players, only two are the #1 receivers on their team (Boldin and Marshall). Interestingly, they were both offseason acquisitions. Also, of those seven, only three have what I would call top tier QBs throwing them the ball, in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo. Say what you want about Romo but I view him as a top tier QB.
   
   Now, the biggest question on fantasy owners' minds is, "Which of these performances are for real and which are one time things?" Well, I want to label Boldin and Marshall as those most likely to repeat these types of games. They're the top receivers on their offenses. The players I would say not to bother with are Moore, Lloyd, and Williams. Not that they don't have the talent, but I just think that they are too low on the pecking order to string together any sort of fantasy consistency. Which brings me to my last point.
   
   I think that Collie and Wallace are for real and that their performances on Sunday are the most impressive of the bunch. Each are young players in their 2nd year and each have dynamic QBs throwing them the ball (even though Roethlisberger isn't back yet). And each have proven veterans lining up opposite them at the line (Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne, for those of you who didn't know). But which receiver will ultimately be more consistent out of Collie and Wallace? If I had to choose, I think I'd go with Collie. Wallace might end up with better numbers but that's because he's a deep threat. He was only targeted 4 times on Sunday (granted, he caught three of them for 100 and 2 TDs) but Collie was targeted 16 times! The only player with more targets this week was Brandon Marshall. So, in summary, both are for real. I'd probably start each one every week from here on out until they show otherwise.
   
   
2. What is up with the San Francisco 49ers? This is a team that I had at 13-3 in the preseason. Well, I'm not wrong yet. All they need to do is win out. But a week after putting up a great fight against the New Orleans Saints, they go to Kansas City and get embarrassed. If not for a meaningless last second TD, they would have lost 31-3. Which would have meant that in games against the Chiefs and Seahawks (who had a combined 9-23 last year), the 49ers would be outscored 62-9. It is most certainly time to panic in San Francisco.
   
   It's easy to call San Francisco the biggest disappointment so far this year. Who else has been disappointing? Another California team, the San Diego Chargers. They were beaten by Seattle 27-20, despite outgaining the Seahawks 518-271. Both of their losses have come against, guess who, the Chiefs and Seahawks. Is it time to panic in San Diego? Not quite, but I would keep my finger close to the button.
   
   
3. Alright, let's give some love to the big surprises of the year. I've already discussed them above but certainly the Chiefs and Seahawks top the list. I'm still not convinced by the Chiefs but this certainly helped them in my book. Cassel actually didn't look awful, for a change, and they are one of two 3-0 teams (the other being Pittsburgh). However, I want to see the Chiefs win a meaningful game on the road before I jump onboard.
   
   The Seahawks are a weird team this year. They look great against San Francisco, get thumped by Denver, and then play a great half against San Diego followed by an unimpressive half against San Diego. So which team are they? I say...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with the bad one. And this is why. As Philip Rivers and the Chargers got rolling in the second half yesterday, who bailed out the Seahawks? It wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. It wasn't Justin Forsett. It wasn't the defense. It wasn't even the coaching. It was Leon Washington's two kick return TDs. If you're relying on your kick returner to singlehandedly get you points, you won't win many games. Also, this was the first game that I saw the Seahawks give Forsett the carries he deserves. He's easily the best back they have but has been inexplicably forced to share carries with Julius Jones and Washington. But, today, he was given 17 of the team's 21 carries (Hasselbeck had 3, Washington had 1). I told you to hold onto him, fantasy owners.
   
   
4. Fantasy MVP...Kyle Orton? Yep, believe it or not, Orton has been electric so far this year. He went into this game as the 8th best QB and then threw for 476 yards. The worrying bit is that he only had 1 TD but I think that's more of a product of Denver's less than stellar receivers than Orton's inefficiencies. With bye weeks starting up next week, he's a more than capable fill in and could even turn out to be a solid fantasy starter. In fact, he's currently the 4th fantasy QB (granted, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have yet to play). Still, don't sleep on the Orton.
   
   
5. The fearsome Ravens defense versus Peyton Hillis. Advantage, Hillis. Yep, that's right. The same Ravens defense who rarely allows a 100 yard rusher gave up 144 yards and a TD to Hillis, who was filling in for injured starter Jerome Harrison. I think he made a pretty good case to get the starting job, don't you? Did you know that he's scored a rushing TD in three straight games? Do you know what other running backs have done that this year? That's right. None.
   
   
6. It was meant to be a shootout in Houston. Instead, it was just the Cowboys shooting. Tony Romo looked pretty good, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Matt Schaub...didn't, as he went for 241, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Expect Romo to continue to put up good numbers and, also, expect Schaub's stats to go up. This was an off day for just about everyone on the Texans.
   
   
7. I don't normally talk about kickers here but two kickers missed relatively easy game winners today. First, and ugliest, was New Orleans' Garrett Hartley. He's missed 3/7 on the year so far and even the ones that he's made haven't been pretty. And, after he missed a 29 yarder in overtime today, I'd be surprised if he has a job for much longer. The Saints have reportedly been looking at John Carney. So we'll see what happens there.
   
   In other news, we have Sebastian Janikowski, who is known for being scary looking and having a monster leg. Fun fact: he was also drafted in the 1st round back in 2000. Janikowski has now missed field goals in all three games this year, including a 3/6 effort today, culminating in a 32 yard miss that would've won the game. Instead, he pushed it left and the Cardinals escaped with a win. Sad for Raiders fans, yes, especially after he made a 54 yarder in the 1st quarter. But, as Oakland RB Darren McFadden said, "If he kicked that ball 100 times, he's going to make 99 of them. It just so happened that he missed that one." Basically, even if he has the talent, I wouldn't want to be relying on Janikowski as my fantasy kicker. Or Hartley, for that matter.
   
   
8. Nice performances by 3rd year QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who has been criticized for not performing well on the road, went into New Orleans and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs while throwing for 228 and 2 TDs. His numbers weren't spectacular but he didn't commit any turnovers which is a big help when you play a good team like the Saints. But, even with this performance, I'm not about ready to call Ryan a fantasy starter.
   
   Flacco, on the other hand, could be. A week after the worst performance of his career, Flacco got to play around with new target Anquan Boldin, going on to throw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with Boldin catching 142 of those yards and all of the TDs. Next, Flacco gets a tough Steelers defense. I'd be nervous about starting him for that game but you can do a whole lot worse. I have Flacco as a top 10 QB from this point onward.
   
   And, last but not least, Chad Henne. Last week, I said it was time to push the panic button and drop Henne. Not so fast, everybody! This was the Henne that we thought was going to be a sleeper fantasy QB. 363 and 2 TDs against a good Jets pass defense (okay, they were missing Revis) but he looked good. If you dropped him, sorry and try and pick him back up. If you're still holding onto him, well, you're smarter than me.

I'm in the situation on one of my teams where I have a heavy reliance on the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys, arguably the three most disappointing teams so far this year. I think that both the Cowboys and Chargers can right the ship. 49ers...I dunno. But, that's all for today. The Packers visit the Bears on Monday night in what looks to be a great divisional battle. Rodgers vs. Cutler. Can somebody say shootout?

Week 3: Predictions

It's been two weeks. The current standings are:

Tim: 17-15 (10-6)

Dan: 16-16 (8-8)

Our Week 3 Predictions:

San Francisco at Kansas City

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

Detroit at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

Tim: New England

Dan: New England

Atlanta at New Orleans

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: New Orleans

Tennessee at New York Giants

Tim: New York

Dan: Tennessee

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati at Carolina

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Cleveland at Baltimore

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Dallas at Houston

Tim: Dallas

Dan: Houston

Washington at St. Louis

Tim: Washington

Dan: Washington

Philadelphia at Jacksonville

Tim: Philadelphia *Tim edit

Dan: Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Denver

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Oakland at Arizona

Tim: Oakland

Dan: Arizona

San Diego at Seattle

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

New York Jets at Miami

Tim: Miami

Dan: New York

Green Bay at Chicago

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Green Bay

Well, the picks are looking a little different this week. We've got seven different picks this week out of sixteen games. Only a few days left until Sunday. Let's see what happens.

The Adam Swanson Quote of the Week #2

Here we go. The second installment of The Adam Swanson Quote of the Week.

After someone said, "Tastes great, less filling," in reference to the Miller Lite slogan.

"I love Hostess cupcakes."

Week 3: Great Expectations

That's two weeks in the books. And we had a couple of players break out last week. And two of them were both in the same game. Jahvid Best and LeSean McCoy had 40 and 30 points respectively and, for the most part, found themselves on the bench in many leagues. I, for one, said to bench Best because I was concerned about his ypc and the fact that he needed TDs to put up big fantasy numbers. Yes, I was dead wrong. But will these guys exceed expectations again? And, if they won't, who will?

Tony Romo (at Houston)

In the past two weeks, Houston has allowed 21 fantasy points (to Donovan McNabb) and 29 (to Peyton Manning). All that the Cowboys have done for the past two weeks is throw the ball. Do you really think they're going to stop throwing when they find a miserable pass defense? Start Romo with confidence.

Alex Smith (at Kansas City)

For those of you who watched last week's Monday Night game, you were probably impressed by Alex Smith's 2 minute drill to put the 49ers in a position to force OT. I thought that he looked very good throughout, with the exception of his first INT when he threw it behind Frank Gore, leading to a tipped ball. Now he gets KC who let Seneca Wallace throw for 229 and 1 TD. Smith is much better than Wallace and I expect him to do what he does best: get the ball to Frank Gore. If you're in need of a QB this week, Smith could be a nice fill-in.

Shaun Hill (at Minnesota)

Okay, this one could be a bit of a stretch, but hear me out. I'm not saying you should start Hill but I can see him exceeding expectations this week. Look at the facts. He's playing Minnesota, one of the best run defenses in the league. Last week, he threw for 335 and 2 TDs against Philadelphia, a pretty good pass defense. Yes, he had 3 turnovers, but he still had a 20 point fantasy day. If Detroit wants to have any shot in the world this week, they're going to need to throw. If he just drops back and chucks it up to Calvin Johnson, he could post a solid fantasy day.

Darren McFadden (at Arizona)

Now this is what the Raiders wanted when they drafted him. On the season, Run-DMC has 48 carries for 240 yards and 8 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD. Arizona is not good and DMC is basically the only weapon that the Raiders have. Expect him to get the ball. A lot. He should be in a for a good day.

LeSean McCoy (at Jacksonville) and Jahvid Best (at Minnesota)

Of course I had to put them in here! Did you see them last week?! Now, McCoy has a much more favorable matchup but for what Best doesn't get in rushing yards, expect him to get in receiving yards. Start each of them. Aren't they both currently top 3 RBs?

Pierre Thomas (vs. Atlanta)

Reggie Bush is out for at least 6 weeks which will make it all but certain that Thomas will get the carries. And the catches. Drew Brees spreads the ball around and Thomas grabbed 8 receptions last week. Atlanta has allowed rushing TDs each of the past two weeks and I expect Thomas to make it three in a row. Consider him a high #2 RB this week.

Hines Ward (at Tampa Bay)

I said it last week and I'll say it again. He's the security blanket for whoever is the QB for Pittsburgh. Last week, he didn't really get anything because the Steelers didn't need to throw. Their defense won it for them. Whether it's Batch or Leftwich under center, expect them to look to Ward. And often.

Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens (at Carolina)

Carolina has looked pretty bad against the pass, allowing Mike Williams to score a TD on a nice catch and run. Ochocinco and Owens are both better than Williams and I wouldn't be surprised if they both find the endzone this week.

Calvin Johnson (at Minnesota)

See Shaun Hill.

Okay, before I continue with my last WR, I'm going to show you two sets of numbers.

1. 7 catches, 91 yards

2. 3 catches, 44 yards

Now, neither of these stats are that impressive. But do you know who's stats they are? I'll give you a clue. Both are 2nd year WRs and both were taken in the first round of the draft. Figure it out? Player 1 is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Player 2 is Michael Crabtree.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (at Arizona)

Again, I'm not saying to start DHB. Just that I think he will exceed expectations. But he looked pretty good last week and he has the speed to beat any secondary in the game. Sure, he may not have the hands, but if he catches one long TD, he has a good day. And his numbers this year are better than Crabtree's. Was Al Davis on to something back when he drafted him??? Nah, probably not.

Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Detroit)

He's Favre's favorite target, no doubt. He's scored 13 and 8 points these past two weeks and he'll probably score again this week. Start him.

Is it Time to Push the Panic Button?

I've always believed that the first 2-3 weeks of the season are the hardest to predict, whether from a fantasy perspective or not. You really have no idea how the teams are going to perform (example for me: the 49ers, a team I had predicted would go 13-3 and is currently 0-2) and basically all players other than the superstars all start out as question marks. That means that, at this point, you are getting a much better idea of how your fantasy (or favorite) team will perform for the rest of the season. This also means you are in the midst of big waiver-wire pickups and are deciding which players to drop. Now, the current rankings for players are obviously not what they will be at the end of the season (if Jason Snelling finishes in the top 5 running backs, I'll drop out of school) but we are starting to get a bit more of an indication. Still, by week 4, the ratings will begin to solidify.

The purpose of this post is to try to help give you an idea of which player's slow starts will get better and which are for real. Basically, is it time to hit the panic button?

Chad Henne

Many people (myself included) were very high on Henne with the acquisition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. But it seems that the Dolphins are still a run-first team. I had Henne at 11th at the start of the season but I'm now thinking that 21 might be a better ranking. He has 7 and 8 points in his first two starts. I've seen QBs get more than 7 and 8 points on one throw. It's time to hit the panic button. Fantasy owners, I think it's time to abandon Operation Henne. Concern level: 100%.

Joe Flacco

Flacco is currently the 33rd ranked QB. Just a reminder: there are 32 teams in the league. Flacco was my 9th QB in the preseason and I'm not ready to abandon hope just yet. But I am worried. Against the Bengals, Flacco made bad decision after bad decision and didn't look comfortable in the pocket. However, these have been two very good pass defenses that he has faced in the first two games. It'll get better. Concern level: 30%.

Brett Favre

Last season's career year feels like a distant memory. This new Favre has only 1 TD and 5 turnovers through two games. He and his receivers seem to be on different pages and nothing has gone right for the Vikings. I wouldn't say cut him because it looks like the Vikes could trade for Vincent Jackson and get Sidney Rice back in a few weeks. But I'm not about to start him. Concern level: 75%.

Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner

These guys were all top 10 running backs before the season started. They are currently the 22nd, 27th, 30th, and 31st ranked running backs. Some names that are ahead of them: Jason Snelling (5th), Mike Tolbert (13th), and Peyton Hillis (15th). Now, I know as well as you do that you are not about to jettison your first round pick because of two lackluster games, but is there room for concern? I'll look at each player.

For Ray Rice, the only concern I have with him is that Willis McGahee is his usual touchdown-vulturing self. Other than that, the concern level is at 5%.

DeAngelo Williams, one half of the dynamic Carolina rushing duo is currently outperforming Jonathan Stewart 136 yards to 55. And, that's 36 touches to 13. I'm not worried about Williams, other than the fact that I did see Stewart get a key 4th down goal line carry (and did not convert it). Still, if there's a Carolina RB that you want, it's Williams. But the Carolina offense has looked pretty sad. If I can get rid of Williams, I think I would. Concern level: 40%.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a beast, no way around it. He is easily the best player on Jacksonville and was a fantasy stud last year. But he only had 13 touches this past week, the same amount as his backup, Rashad Jennings. The problem with this past game was that the Jags were playing from behind pretty much from the get-go and abandoned the run. Looking at their upcoming schedule, they get Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Tennessee in three of their next four games. If you could trade MJD for another first round talent, I might do it. Concern level: 25%.

Michael Turner was on his way to a great game (9 carries for 75 yards) before he got hurt. I, like many other Michael Turner owners, thought to myself Oh hell, not this again. However, coach Mike Smith said that Turner had been cleared to return and might have done so, had the game not been such a blowout. If this were a first time occurrence, I might give him a pass, but we saw this all of last year. When he's healthy, he's a top 10/top 5 back. When he isn't...concern level: 40%.

Justin Forsett

Forsett is easily the best back in the Seattle backfield but, for some reason, Pete Carroll keeps inexplicably using Julius Jones. Jones has three less carries than Forsett and 57 less yards! I'll give you a moment to let that sink in. If Seattle would just give Forsett the clear starting job and stop fooling around with Jones, he would be a starter. As it is right now, he won't get enough touches to be a viable starting option. I'm not starting him but I'm not dropping him just yet. Concern level: 50%.

Ryan Mathews

Mathews was a popular late 3rd/early 4th round pick in drafts but, so far, has only managed 7 points. Part of that was because he got hurt in his last game and left after only five carries for 26 yards and a fumble. But the fumble is the thing that concerns me. That's two fumbles lost in two games. Some are saying it's bad luck, others are saying it's a sign of things to come. I fall in the middle of the spectrum. I wouldn't worry about it because we have such a small sample size. But, if the numbers don't change by week 6, I would be worried. Hell, if he fumbles in week 3, I'm worried. He's supposed to play this week after his injury so he should be good to go for fantasy lineups. Concern level: 35%.

Ricky Williams

Williams is part of the two headed monster that is the Dolphins' backfield. But it is clear that he is the lesser of the two heads. In two games, Williams actually has two more carries than Ronnie Brown but Brown has outgained Williams by 53 yards. Williams is averaging a meager 3.3 ypc and has no TDs. If I have him, I'm looking to cut him for other options. But, if Brown were to get injured (which he inevitably will do), Williams' value goes up. Until then, my concern level is at 80%.

Marion Barber and Felix Jones

The Cowboys have all but abandoned the run and both Barber's and Jones' numbers have suffered because of that. Each have managed only 6 fantasy points on the year, or the equivalent of 1 TD. If I could have one, I would want Jones because I think he winds up being the starter. Of course, from what I've seen so far, Barber looks like the more consistent starter. However, in a perfect world, I wouldn't start either of them until the Cowboys can get something that resembles a running game going. My concern level for Barber is 65% and for Jones it is 70%.

Shonn Greene

So far during the season, LaDainian Tomlinson has outscored Greene 16-4 in fantasy points. Is this a sign for things to come? I think yes. Tomlinson has looked younger and faster, much better than he did last year and Green looks like he'll wind up being the change of pace back. Coach Rex Ryan says that he wants to split the carries 50-50 with each back getting 15 carries a game but I think they might wind up going with the hot hand. If I could sell Green, I would but don't be surprised if he picks his game up later on in the season. Concern level: 70%.

C.J. Spiller

Spiller has two fantasy points through 2 games and has 8 carries for 9 yards. He was one of the most talented rookie running backs in this past draft but he drew the short straw when he was drafted by Buffalo. There are holes all over that team and I'm not about to start anybody on it. I don't think that I would drop Spiller but I'm not starting him until he shows me something. Concern level: 80%.

Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker

There are four receivers who are currently tied for the 30th place rank in fantasy points. Can you guess who they are? If you said Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker, and Devin Hester because their names were right above this little trivia, I'd tell you to stop being a smart ass. But, yes, Randy Moss is 30th in wide receiver points, tied with Boldin, MSW, and Hester. Of the four of them, Moss is the one I'm least concerned about because, well, he's Randy Moss and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. His concern level is 0%.

Concerning Boldin, he was plagued by a poor performance from Joe Flacco on Sunday so, naturally, his numbers dropped. Give him time, he'll bounce back. Concern level: 10%.

Now, Mike Sims-Walker. He was horribly inconsistent last year and opened this season with a 0 point game before following it up with a 14 point effort. You see what I'm getting at? He'll have good games, he'll have bad ones. Is there a way to figure out when they'll be? Nope. I don't want him on my team, but that's not to say he won't put up good numbers. My concern level: 50%.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe has the potential to be a great receiver. However, I don't think Matt Cassel has the potential to be a starting quarterback. As long as Cassel is under center, Bowe will not have good numbers. Panic button, you have been pressed. Abandon the Dwayne Bowe ship. Concern level: 100%.

Robert Meachem

He has 5 targets through two games, and only has three catches for 33 yards. It's clear that he's the 5th/6th read in the New Orleans offense. That's not someone you want on your team. Press the button, the concern level is at 100%.

Lee Evans

Evans is the definition of a big play receiver. And Buffalo is the definition of an ailing franchise. Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Evans' numbers will still be bad, I can guarantee it. If you can get something for him, do it now. Otherwise, he serves no purpose. Concern level: 100%.

Michael Crabtree

I'm not too sure what Crabtree is doing in this offense. Last night, Crabtree had 3 targets to Josh Morgan's 8, Vernon Davis' 7 and Frank Gore's 9. Crabtree is certainly talented enough to put up good numbers but Alex Smith doesn't seem to be looking to him that much (and after that week 1 performance, I can certainly understand why). I'd put him on my bench but don't go and drop him just yet. He's a great talent and has immense potential. As it stands, concern level: 55%.

Brandon Marshall

Marshall is now on a run-first team but he is still a freak of nature. He'll get his numbers, but you might have to wait a bit. Remember that he only had 6 fantasy points through his first two weeks last year as he got used to new quarterback Kyle Orton. Then he scored 4 TDs in 3 games. Concern level: 5%.

If you need to make roster cuts this week, I hope this helps. Don't give up hope on everyone just yet. There's still plenty of season left.

Just a Clarification

Just wanted to clarify what I would view as a 'solid' performance fantasy-wise for each position. The numbers are as follows:

Quarterback: 200 yards and 2 TDs. Somewhere around 16-18 fantasy points

Running Back: 100 yards or 40 yards and a TD. Somewhere around 10 fantasy points

Wide Receiver: See running back.

Tight End: 60 yards or a TD. Somewhere around 6 points.

Defense: Somewhere around 8-10 fantasy points.

Kickers: At least 7 points.

So when I say a player will Exceed Expectations, this is my benchmark for what I'm hoping they wind up doing.

Week 2: What I Learned From Sunday

The second Sunday of the year has wrapped up. And, as with every week, there were plenty of surprises and disappointments. Here's what I took away from the Sunday #2.

1. I think one unexpected player will score 40+ points each week. Last week we had Arian Foster go for 41, this week it was Jahvid Best for 40. 3 TDs and 232 total yards normally makes for a good game. And if you look here in my Game By Game Breakdown, I said that I would sit Jahvid Best. Which I did in the leagues where I had him. Ummm, mulligan? I don't think he's still going to rely on TDs for points. He looked good against a good Eagles defense. I was wrong for that one. Actually, let's see how I did for the rest of those predictions.
   
   
2. Just how great were my Great Expecations? Let's see. I nailed Rivers, Ryan, and Vick. 3/3. As for the running backs, 2/3 had good but not great games. Barber and Jones let me down though. Wes Welker, Donald Driver, and Dez Bryant all scored TDs (the last one was a punt return though. I'll take it) but Hines Ward was the victim of a terrible passing performance by the Steelers, which was partly due to Dennis Dixon getting hurt. Still, I'll take 3/4. As for tight ends, Carlson had a decent game but nothing that really separated him from the pack. Cooley, on the other hand, had 64 yards and at TD. I'll call that 1/2. So, to recap, I was 9/12 on my Great Expecations. I'm pleased with that.
   
   
3. My Do Not Want list was a also pretty successful. Carson Palmer did not set the world on fire against Baltimore. That much I got right. Jay Cutler against Dallas? Okay, 277 yds and 3 TDs aren't that good. Fine, they are. 1/2. Forte didn't look that good on the ground but it was his receiving that set him apart. Got that one wrong. Forsett and Jones weren't spectacular in their games either. 8 for 44 and 22 for 83 respectively. I'd like to think I got those two right. And Benson only had 78 yards on 23 carries. I'll say 3/4 on RBs. Nicks only had 2 catches for 38 yards but one of them did go for a TD. But both of those catches were in garbage time. I'd say I got him right. And Moss only had 2 for 38 and a TD. Yes, that TD catch was pretty but I think I got that one right too. Naanee had 1 catch for 14 yards. Nailed it! And Wallace? He had 2 for 25 and actually led the team in receiving. Got that one too. Wow, I was 4/4 with receivers! And, of course, the tight end. Olsen made me look stupid with his 39 yard TD catch. But, I would like to point out that it wound up being his only catch. Just saying. I'll award myself half a point for that. So I finished 8.5/11. For an overall total of 17.5/23. 76% right. That's pretty solid, I'd say.
   
   
4. Damn those injuries. There were some big names getting hurt this week and they likely hurt your fantasy teams if you were unlucky enough to have them starting. I, for one, had both Michael Turner and Ryan Mathews starting in one of my leagues and I was very pleased to see them both getting off to good starts. And then...they're gone. Especially when you're playing against the likes of AP and Tim Hightower. Unfortunate, yes. But they weren't the only two names to go down. Jason Witten became the latest casualty of the concussion. He'll need to pass various tests before he is allowed to play again. Andre Johnson scared owners when he departed for around a whole quarter against the Redskins. But he went on to catch 12 for 158 and a TD. Much better than last week's 3 for 33. And Steeler's quarterback Dennis Dixon left in the 2nd quarter after throwing for 18 yards and a fumble. While most aren't starting Dixon but it will affect the fantasy stocks of Hines Ward and Mike Wallace.
   
   
5. Why are the top RBs consistently nobodies? Last week, it was Arian Foster, this week it was Jahvid Best. And Jason Snelling and Mike Tolbert were in the top 5 in running back points! Many of you remember Snelling from last year as "The Guy Who Was Not Michael Turner." And Mike Tolbert...I think he's a fullback. Wikipedia says so, at least. And he had 95 total yards and 2 TDs. Who will be the unexpected performer next week? I'm guessing John Kuhn in GB.
   
   
6. Joe Flacco cannot solve the Bengals. In three career starts versus Cincinnati, Flacco has 1 TD and 8 INTs. And I must say, I was disgusted to hear countless Ravens fans bitching and moaning after this week to the tunes of, "Flacco can't throw at all. Why is he our quarterback?" and "He's the second coming of Boller!" To those of you out there who fell into this crowd, give it a rest. What are you, Eagles fans? Also, the Ravens have yet to allow a TD this year, the only team to do so.
   
   
7. The battle of the Manning brothers wasn't much of a battle. Again. Peyton outperformed the younger Eli by going 20/26 for 255 yards and 3 TDs to Eli's 13/24 for 161 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 2 fumbles lost. Peyton looks like he'll be in the MVP running again. Eli...you be the judge.
   
   
8. The best looking team of the week was, in my opinion, the Bears. Jay Cutler looked like the quarterback the Bears wanted when they traded for him. And, most importantly, he did not commit a turnover. If he can keep up that performance, watch out. The Bears could be dangerous. But, if you're a Jay Cutler owner, now may be the time to sell high.
   
   
9. I think I may just bench any running back playing the Steelers. In the past two weeks, the Steelers defense has held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson, two of the best running backs in the game, to 19 carries for 42 yards and 16 carries for 32 yards and a fumble, respectively. Next week, they have Tampa Bay and Cadillac Williams. I know who I'm benching...

Okay, that's a wrap. The Saints visit the 49ers on Monday night. Gore owners are hoping for a big game out of him but Brees owners are hoping he can pick apart the 49ers secondary. I actually called San Francisco to win this one in the preseason. I thought long and hard about changing it but, in the end, I didn't. I actually had the same quandary with the Jets and Patriots game today. In the preseason, I called the Jets but changed it to the Pats this week. I'm not gonna do that again and just go with my instincts from the preseason. Alright, I'm out. Hope you all won your matchups (and if I caused you to lose them, then find peace in the fact that I also caused myself to lose mine).

Week 1: Power Rankings

Continuing a trend I started last season, I will be putting together a set of power rankings all season. This basically means that I assign seemingly arbitrary ranks (1-32) for each team, which don’t necessarily go by standings or actual records. It’s difficult to get much out of just having the stats from Week One, so don’t pay too much attention to wins/losses as we move out of the top 6 or so, 16 teams had to lose this week. Division standings are also somewhat deceptive, but were gained through the NFL’s website.

Sorry it’s up on gameday, this literally took about 15 hours of work to compose, with all the stat-compiling.

So, here’s the format:

Rank|Last Week’s Rank (LW)|Team Name|Record|Divisional Standing|Comments

Hopefully, by Week Five or so, I’ll be uploading a more interactive version of the power rankings, but until then, bear with me. Last note: there is no LW column this week. Here we go!

1 New Orleans Saints (1-0) 1^st NFCS

The Saints looked solid enough in their opener last Thursday. Their stats weren’t amazing, but Drew Brees looked on form, and the defense was able to prevent either QB Brett Favre or RB Adrian Peterson from getting much done.

Key Stat: 0-2 FG, Garrett Hartley missed both attempts (46, 32) and in close games like this, you have to be able to rely on your kicker, so expect Hartley to come back strong or else have an ad out in the newspaper.

2 New England Patriots (1-0) 2^nd AFCE

Wow. The Patriots of 2010 look like the Patriots of the early 2000s, and came to play hard with the Bengals. They made the former AFC North champs look like amateurs as Tom Brady gashed Cincy’s secondary for over 250 yards and 3 scores. However, New England’s defense surrendered the 3^rd-most yardage in the NFL.

Key Stat: Wes Welker’s 8 grabs for 64 yards and 2 TDs show that his knee is feeling great, which is terrific news for Tom Brady.

3 Green Bay Packers (1-0) 2^nd NFCN

Losing Ryan Grant for the season is going to hurt, but they have an incredible offense and backup Brandon Jackson could be a sleeper for a great year, fantasy owners. The stats don’t show the talent (17^th-overall offense, 18^th-overall defense), but the talent is present and overwhelming in opposing war rooms during planning sessions.

Key Stat: 5 Sacks, including 2.0 by Clay Matthews shows dedication to the pass-rush to help an injured defensive backfield.

4 Baltimore Ravens (1-0) 1^st AFCN

The Ravens were able to top the best defense from 2009 in a nail-biter 10-9 finish. They were unable to get the running game established, however, and Joe Flacco showed poor awareness early on. The defense did have a vintage appearance, giving young QB Mark Sanchez nothing to work with all game.

Key Stat: 60 PYA (best in the NFL), with many pundits attacking Baltimore’s secondary as the team’s weakest unit, they’ll get a real test versus Carson Palmer in Cincy on Sunday (Carson threw for 340 yards against the Pats, of which 212 were to T.O. and Ocho).

5 Houston Texans (1-0) 1^st AFCS

The Texans got an early lead and never looked back as Arian Foster carried the Texans to only their second victory over the Colts since their inception in 2002. Foster looked amazing, running for a Texans-record 231 yards and 3 TDs against a usually-stout Colts defense. Houston gained a huge advantage in the ultra-competitive AFC South with this win, but need more from their passing game to keep defenses honest.

Key Stat: 98 PYG (30^th in NFL), with teams soon to be game-planning to contain Foster, QB Matt Schaub needs to bring the passing game back to its recent form to avoid becoming one-dimensional.

6 Miami Dolphins (1-0) 1^st AFCE

Miami’s defense came out this week and held the Bills to 166 yards, which was the best total D in the league. With 3 sacks and a safety by Miami, the Bills were unable to slow down the Dolphins in the trenches. This gives Miami an easy lead in the AFC East, where they will be heavily challenged by the Patriots this season.

Key Stat: 0 Turnovers, when you have a young, inexperienced starting QB, ball security is extremely important, so it’s good to see a lack of foolish miscues.

7 Indianapolis Colts (0-1) 4^th AFCS

I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Colts as 4^th in the AFC South. Ever. This loss doesn’t show the Colts waning, but the Texans improving. The Colts are still elite as long as Peyton Manning is under center. He threw all over the Texans in Sunday’s loss, going 40/57 for 433 yards and three scores. Expect Manning to let the Giants have it in Week Two.

Key Stat: 44 RYG (31^st in the NFL) With Peyton having to do all the work on offense (57 attempts is a LOT), the Colts need to work on establishing the run.

8 Tennessee Titans (1-0) 2^nd AFCS

With a decisive victory over the Raiders, the Titans are out to show that last year’s 0-6 start is just a memory and that this year’s team is the real deal. There was nothing too fancy, just great running by Chris Johnson and successful game-management by Vince Young to get a solid victory.

Key Stat: 12 straight 100-yard games rushing by halftime for CJ2K, which shows that he means it when he says he’s not satisfied with having less than 2500 yards this year.

9 Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) 2^nd AFCN

The Steelers can win without Ben Roethlisberger, but not with a lot of breathing room. Dennis Dixon needs to get more in synch with his offense against the Titans next week, or the defense won’t be able to keep it close.

Key Stat: Mendenhall’s 22 carries for 122 yards, the Steelers can’t expect Dixon to replace Big Ben’s ability, so it is imperative for Mendenhall to produce until Week Five.

10 Seattle Seahawks (1-0) 1^st NFCW

What a way for Pete Carroll and Matt Hasselbeck to come out swinging against the NFC West favorite and get a leg up in the weakest division in the NFL. Holding the 49ers to little production on the ground was crucial and allowed the ‘Hawks to win with 31 unanswered points (21 of which were Hasselbeck TDs).

Key Stat: Hasselbeck went 18/23 for 170 yards and 2 TDs, plus another TD on the ground. Seattle can not win without him under center, and he looked good.

11 San Diego Chargers (0-1) 3^rd AFCW

You could look at Phillip Rivers’ face once to tell that he was missing holdouts Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. The Chargers outplayed the Chiefs 389-197 in offensive yards, but couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. Add in the poor special teams coverage, and the Chargers have some issues to analyze going into Week Two.

Key Stat: 4/15 on third down, that’s not efficiency you can afford to have when playing from behind, showing the impact of Jackson’s holdout.

12 Dallas Cowboys (0-1) 4^th NFCE

Penalties destroy good teams; just check out the ’09 Ravens. With an extremely foolish end-of-the-game penalty negating the winning TD, Wade Phillips is going to strictly direct practice with his offensive line. His OC will probably generate plenty of scrutiny if this loss damages their NFC East record with later losses.

Key Stat: Miles Austin had 10 catches for 146 yards and a score, proving that he earned his extension to be the #1 receiver in Dallas.

13 Washington Redskins (1-0) 1^st NFCE

This was a great way to start Mike Shanahan’s comeback. Holding off the Cowboys was good, but they only one on a penalty. Not to diminish the value of the win, but the defense needs to tighten up and finish games.

Key Stat: No offensive touchdowns, showing that the offense has some work to do, though it’s always positive to see playmakers on defense.

14 Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) 1^st AFCW

Toppling giants doesn’t always require a lot of offense, but the KC special teams showed up this week and rookie Dexter McCluster is proving to be a playmaker for the unit. Huge win in the AFC West for the Chiefs.

Key Stat: 10/22 (45.5%), 68 yards; Matt Cassel’s stats are unimpressive, and he posted a meager 68.0 passer rating, which has to improve for the Chiefs to balance their attack.

15 Chicago Bears (1-0) 1^st NFCN

Despite an early division victory, Coach Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and he can’t be too impressed by his team in their win over the Lions. I was pleased to see Jay Cutler keep his turnover ratio even, but he’s going to need to do better with a tough road game against Dallas (ranked 5^th in offense and 7^th in defense) coming up.

Key Stat: 20 RYA (1^st in NFL), the Lions are not a running threat, but this is good for their front seven, especially after acquiring free agent DE Julius Peppers this offseason.

16 Atlanta Falcons (0-1) 4^th NFCS

The Falcons are the third team ranking 4^th in their division in the top half of the league, and they played a hard defensive struggle against the Steelers. Without being able to generate much from their running game, Matt Ryan was unable to get into a good rhythm.

Key Stat: 58 RYG; Michael Turner hasn’t returned to his 2008 form yet and has to against the Cardinals this week, who ranked 17^th against the run last year.

17 New York Giants (1-0) 2^nd NFCE

The Giants won their first game in the New Meadowlands and laid a second-half beat-down on the Panthers. Eli Manning threw three interceptions, but the defense was able to limit the Panthers ability to capitalize too much on them.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 75 yards, 3TD; Hakeem Nicks gave Eli a solid target to rely on this week, with the receiving corps being heavily scrutinized this offseason.

18 Arizona Cardinals (1-0) 2^nd NFCW

Derek Anderson looked pretty good in his debut for Arizona, throwing for almost 300 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. He needs to continue building a rapport with his receivers with Atlanta looking to even out their record. It wouldn’t hurt to continue shutting the run out either, with Michael Turner struggling against Pittsburgh last week.

Key Stat: 378 yards total offense (7^th best), the main concern following Kurt Warner’s retirement was the ability of the offense to bounce back, and so far, so good.

19 Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) 3^rd AFCS

The Jaguars came out offensively against the Broncos and were able to score points, an issue in 2009 (24^th in the NFL in points per game). David Garrard posted his best passer rating since 2006 and pocket Hercules looked awesome in the running game.

Key Stat: 16/21, 175 yards, 3TD by David Garrard; Garrard has been criticized for his lack of TDs, with just 30 since 2008, so it was good to see the production early this season.

20 Denver Broncos (0-1) 2^nd AFCW

Good news: the offense looked good, and it seems that Brandon Marshall isn’t being missed too badly. Plus, the pass defense played alright, holding #1 WR Mike Sims-Walker to 0 catches. Bad news: the Broncos are 0-1.

Key Stat: 5 catches, 117 yards by Brandon Lloyd, it’s crucial that the Broncos maintain a strong passing game without Marshall, and Lloyd could step up into the role.

21 Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) 4^th AFCN

The offensive additions of rookies TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, as well as the veteran Terrell Owens have already paid dividends. Carson Palmer threw for 345 yards against New England, despite a good bit of garbage time yardage.

Key Stat: Zero sacks; when you’re ranked first in your division, you play the other division leaders in your conference the next year (Colts, Chargers, Patriots), and all three the Bengals play have amazing aerial attacks, which begin with powerful offensive lines. With no push up front, this will be a very long season.

22 Minnesota Vikings (0-1) 3^rd NFCN

It already looks like last year’s success for Brett Favre is not going to last for too long. Sidney Rice has been out, and now Percy Harvin isn’t looking healthy either. If the Vikings can trade for Chargers’ holdout Vincent Jackson, there could be a silver lining.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 76 yards, TD; TE Visanthe Shiancoe is still a scoring threat after having 11 TDs last season, and Favre badly needs it with WRs dropping left and right.

23 New York Jets (0-1) 3^rd AFCE

The Jets came into Week One huffing and puffing, but the Ravens blew the house down, deflating the high hopes the Jets carried. The defense was sloppy and was unable to match up against the Ravens multiple passing threats, though Darrelle Revis did look good keeping his side of the field barren.

Key Stat: 14 penalties for 125 yards; sloppy plays gashed the defense for critical yardage, especially a Roughing the Kicker call on 4^th down. That’s dumb.

24 Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) 3^rd NFCE

The heir to McNabb went down with a concussion, and Michael Vick looked like he was in old form, rushing and passing for over 100 yards apiece, the seventh time he’s done so in his career. The defense, on the other hand, definitely needs some work.

Key Stat: 16/24, 175 yards, TD, 11 attempts rushing, 103 yards, TD; Vick’s stat line looks awesome, and if he starts against Detroit, the Eagles will win. Mark it.

25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) 2^nd NFCS

Josh Freeman looked great for Tampa Bay, giving the fans something to cheer about. The defense generated turnovers, too, which always makes things easier on a young quarterback.

Key Stat: 17/28, 182 yards, 2TD, INT; Josh Freeman provides stability at QB for Tampa, and though his stats aren’t too flashy, he manages the game well and isn’t reckless.

26 San Francisco 49ers (0-1) 4^th NFCW

Big trouble in San Francisco is brewing after the poor play all over the offense against the Seahawks. Alex Smith is being criticized; Michael Crabtree is under fire… The defense looked unable to stop Matt Hasselbeck, though they did stuff the run well.

Key Stat: 17 attempts, 38 yards; RB Frank Gore is a huge piece of the offense, and if he continues to disappoint, Mike Singletary will look elsewhere to head the charge.

27 Detroit Lions (0-1) 4^th NFCN

Detroit could have won the game if the NFL Rulebook was written with common sense guiding the authors. Alas, Calvin Johnson didn’t get the game-winning TD credited. With a hard-fought division game under their belt, the Lions showed they are able to win games. Doing so without QB Matthew Stafford might be difficult though.

Key Stat: 4 sacks; I said before the season started that the Detroit front seven would be strong, and there you have it, including a sack by rookie Ndamukong Suh in his debut.

28 Oakland Raiders (0-1) 4^th AFCW

The Raiders were thoroughly outplayed by the Titans in Week One, posting the 22^nd-ranked offense and the 21^st-ranked defense. The defense allowed 5 TDs and the Titans went 3/3 in the red zone for 21 points.

Key Stat: 22/37, 180 yards, TD, INT; Jason Campbell looked way less than spectacular in his silver-and-black debut. He was brought in to turn the offense around, and must do so in order to avoid dropping to 0-2 against St. Louis.

29 St. Louis Rams (0-1) 3^rd NFCW

There wasn’t a victory to celebrate in St. Louis, but they do have some hope in rookie QB Sam Bradford, who performed admirably. Not many rookies would be able to keep a lot of poise behind that offensive line.

Key Stat: 32/55, 253 yards, TD, 3 INT; Sam Bradford threw a lot in his regular season debut. Building the running game up will help him both keep his picks down and allow adjustment to NFL-speed.

30 Buffalo Bills (0-1) 4^th AFCE

The Bills looked anemic against the Dolphins, with the only worthwhile play being Roscoe Parrish’s 31 yard TD. Chan Gailey has got a lot of work to do.

Key Stat: 6 three-and-outs; for the offense to score, they have got to be able to move the ball. John Madden couldn’t have said it better.

31 Carolina Panthers (0-1) 3^rd NFCS

The Carolina defense was poor at stopping the Giants at getting points off turnovers, which doesn’t help with a young quarterback. This team isn’t built for the long haul, and with Jimmy Clausen possibly starting in Week Two, let the growing pains begin.

Key Stat: 2 points scored in the 2^nd half; no way to come back from behind if you can’t score all game, and a safety isn’t going to cut it against a solid offense.

32 Cleveland Browns (0-1) 3^rd AFCN

The Browns are just bad. They lost starting QB Jake Delhomme and will play an excited Kansas City team. Expect losses from these guys.

Key Stat: 2 catches, 46 yards, TD; second-year pro Mohamed Massaquoi’s growth is critical to a weak passing game in Cleveland.

Week 2: Game By Game Fantasy Breakdown

So this is a new thing that I'm trying out this week. Basically what this will be is a game by game breakdown with one player that I would start for each game and one person I would sit.

Arizona at Atlanta

Atlanta is looking to bounce back after losing an ugly game against Pittsburgh last week. This was a game where Michael Turner couldn't find any running room and the entire offense looked out of sync. But I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders and, because of this, I'm thinking Matt Ryan has a great game. He's my start.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona's Steve Breaston had 7 catches for 132 yards last week on 7 targets. But I'm sitting him this week. I don't believe in Derek Anderson and I think that part of the reason he had all of those catches was because Anderson could not find Larry Fitzgerald who had 3 catches but 15 targets. I think Fitz's numbers get better and Breaston's go down. Sit Breaston.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Ray Rice could not find any running room last week against the Jets but let's be realistic. The Jets were committed to stopping Rice and put a lot of pressure on their secondary. I think Rice goes off this week and I'm starting him in every league that I have him in and want to trade for him in every league that I don't.

If you remember last year, Cincinnati swept the division. They look to continue their run this week but they're going to need a better game out of Carson Palmer. He is 8-3 in his career against the Ravens but, last week, did not look good against New England. His numbers were high but they were mostly garbage time. I want to see a good game out of Palmer before I consider starting him. So I'm sitting him this week.

Kansas City at Cleveland

Kansas City shocked everyone last week by beating San Diego in their season opener. And Cleveland shocked nobody by looking pretty bad in their game against Tampa Bay. KC has two of the best running backs in the league and I think they each have good games. Start Jamaal Charles and you can do a whole lot worse than Thomas Jones.

Watching last week's game against Tampa Bay showed me that, for some mystical reason, Eric Mangini loves it when Jake Delhomme throws the ball. And while he looked awful (as expected), I was surprised how he divided the carries. Peyton Hillis and Jerome Harrison each had 9 carries but Hillis added 4 catches and Harrison had 1. Harrison was drafted much higher than Hillis and, until Harrison proves himself this year, I don't have confidence starting him.

Chicago at Dallas

Dallas got beat in an ugly game last week against Washington but I expect an angry team to walk onto the field against Chicago. I like just about everyone on Dallas this week (except Roy Williams) but I have Dez Bryant as a solid #2 receiver this week. Start him.

On the other hand, I dislike just about everyone on Chicago this week. They didn't play that well against Detroit last week and Dallas is much better than Detroit. If I can, I'm benching every Bear. But, for the sake of this post, bench Jay Cutler.

Philadelphia at Detroit

Michael Vick gets the start this week and he's coming off a good performance against Green Bay. Green Bay is much better than Detroit. I think Vick finishes the week as a top 10 QB. Start him.

Sure, Jahvid Best had 2 TDs in his rookie debut (first running back to do that since LaDainian Tomlinson) but I'm a bit nervous about his 1.4 ypc. I'm positive that number will get better but I'm worried about starting a RB who makes his fantasy owners rely on touchdowns for any points. I'm sitting him this week.

Buffalo at Green Bay

Brandon Jackson is starting now that Ryan Grant is done for the year and was the biggest fantasy pickup of Week 1. Buffalo has one of the worst run defenses in the league. Expect big things. Start him.

It was a lackluster debut for C.J. Spiller. 7 carries for 6 yards and 4 catches for 8 yards. He didn't look capable of handling 20+ carries per game and, until he shows that, he will remain on my bench. As he should for you.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

I mentioned in my Great Expectations post that I like Hines Ward this week and don't like Mike Wallace. Go read that if you want the reasoning, I don't feel like writing it again.

Miami at Minnesota

Last week, Brett Favre didn't look that impressive. But that was New Orleans, not Miami. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't been tested yet (Trent Edwards? C'mon) but I expect them to get burned this week. I like Favre. Start him.

Minnesota has a great run defense, anchored by the Williams Wall, which means that I'm nervous about using Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Avoid both.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Ahhh, the battle of the bad. Actually, Josh Freeman looked pretty good last week. And the Panther's secondary looked mediocre at best. So I think he and Kellen Winslow have good games. Of course, I wouldn't start Williams but I would start Winslow. Go for it.

Last week, DeAngelo Williams had 16 carries to Jonathan Stewart's 5. Stewart's fantasy value is as a time share back right now but, if Williams gets hurt, Stewart's value skyrockets. But, until Stewart has a good day, I'm keeping him benched.

Seattle at Denver

These two teams both surprised me last week. I thought there was no way in hell that Seattle would beat San Francisco and thought that Denver would manhandle Jacksonville. I noticed that Denver did a poor job covering the tight end as Marcedes Lewis caught two TDs. So I'm starting John Carlson this week.

Seattle also managed to contain Frank Gore last week, who is one of the best backs in the league. Knowshon Moreno has not reached Frank Gore status. Is Seattle's defense great again? Who knows, it's been only one game! But does that make me nervous about Moreno? Yeppp.

St. Louis at Oakland

It's tough to find someone to like in this game. But, if I had to pick one, I'm going with Darren McFadden. He looked pretty good last week 18 carries for 95 yards and 6 catches for 55 yards and a TD. And St. Louis is not a good defense. If Michael Bush doesn't play, McFadden is a solid player to start.

Who wouldn't I start? Everyone. Next!

New England at New York Jets

The Patriots looked amazing last week and the Jets looked like the most overhyped thing since the beginning of time. But, despite the fact that the Jets looked terrible, I'm thinking that LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene each have good games. I think Tomlinson makes a good flex play this week.

Randy Moss has a spot reserved on Revis Island and, because of that little fact, I don't like him this week. Darrelle Revis has shut him down in weeks past and I don't think he bucks the trend. If I had to choose, I'm not starting Moss.

Jacksonville at San Diego

Rookie running back Ryan Mathews had an unimpressive debut but one thing that stood out to me was on the run where he fumbled. He reminded me of Adrian Peterson, fighting his hardest, breaking tackles, only to have a great run negated by a fumble. So I'm not worried about him. In fact, I have the utmost confidence in him. I think he's a must start.

I've never been a believer in Mike Sims-Walker and last week helped prove that for me. He's horribly inconsistent and you never know when he's going to do well. If you can trade him, do it. I don't want him on my fantasy team.

Houston at Washington

Clinton Portis went fairly late in most leagues I drafted. Surprising, considering he's one of the few running backs who plays on every down. I like him this week and think he's a good player to start every week as a flex play.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson both underperformed last week but that's because Arian Foster went crazy. Expect both Schaub and Johnson to return to their spots at the tops of their position rankings for the year. But, talking about former Houston studs, I'm still nervous about using Owen Daniels. When he's healthy, he's one of the league's best tight ends. Problem is, I don't think he's healthy yet. Avoid him.

New York Giants at Indianapolis

Of all Indianapolis receiver, it was Austin Collie who stole the show. Both Garcon and Wayne were targeted 10 times (Garcon had 3 catches and Wayne had 7) but Collie had 11 catches on 12 targets. I like Collie this week. Go ahead and start him if you're a bit weak at WR.

I don't like Hakeem Nicks this week, despite his 75 yards and 3 TDs. I think the Colts secondary follows him and he has a down week. He should finish as a top 25 WR but I don't like him this week.

New Orleans at San Francisco

There were questions about how New Orleans would divide carries amongst their running backs but it looks like Pierre Thomas wound up being the top choice. I think he's a must start now.

If there was a particular disappointment from the 49ers last week, it would be Michael Crabtree. He and Alex Smith did not look on the same page and I'm nervous about starting him until he shows me something. I feel like that's my philosophy with most of the players I don't want to start...

Week 2: Predictions

Well, Week 1 didn't quite go according to plan. Currently, the standings are:

Dan: 8-8

Tim: 7-9

Now here's Week 2:

Arizona at Atlanta

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: Atlanta

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Kansas City at Cleveland

Tim: Kansas City

Dan: Kansas City

Chicago at Dallas

Tim: Dallas

Dan: Dallas

Philadelphia at Detroit

Tim: Philadelphia * (Edit by Tim , I just heard Vick is getting the start)

Dan: Philadelphia

Buffalo at Green Bay

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

Miami at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Minnesota

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Tim: Carolina

Dan: Carolina

Seattle at Denver

Tim: Denver

Dan: Denver

St. Louis at Oakland

Tim: Oakland

Dan: St. Louis

New England at New York Jets

Tim: New England

Dan: New England

Jacksonville at San Diego

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Houston at Washington

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New York Giants at Indianapolis

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

New Orleans at San Francisco

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: San Francisco

Alright, so there are three games that we have predicted differently. Let's see what happens.

Vincent Jackson Update

NFL.com reported yesterday that San Diego Chargers holdout wide receiver Vincent Jackson would be able to have his suspension reduced if he were traded before next Wednesday. However, the Chargers have to accept the terms of the trade agreement for this to pan out. So far, there's been interest from the Seahawks, Vikings, Rams and Redskins for Jackson.

Of all these teams, I'd like to see the Vikings pull the trigger on a trade for the star wideout, as they've lacked a true number one receiver since the days of Randy Moss and Cris Carter. Sidney Rice looked like he was getting there last season, but his current standing on the Physically Unable to Perform list sidelines him until the seventh game of the season. Getting a contract extension worked out for Jackson would put the Vikings in good shape for a few seasons, with this likely being Favre's last season, and Tavaris Jackson needing a solid receiver to help his future growth.

The Chargers will likely make a statement this afternoon regarding their position on trading Jackson, and until then, we'll just have to speculate as to the next installment of this ongoing battle of wills.

Week 2: Do Not Want

Yesterday, I addressed those players that I feel very comfortable with starting this week. Today, I'm going to look at those who, if I have the option, I would consider benching. Basically, these are players who look to have a down week this week.

Carson Palmer (vs. Baltimore)

Yes, he did throw for 345 yards and 2 TDs last week but, if you watched the game, you realized that most of that came in garbage time and he did not look like a good quarterback for most of the game. New England's secondary had been decimated by injuries and they kept Palmer in check, despite the fact that Cincinnati has two very capable receivers. Baltimore's secondary looked pretty good against the Jets (okay, it was the Jets) but they still held their own. Plus, I expect this game to be a low scorer so, if I had other options, I would avoid using Palmer this week.

Jay Cutler (at Dallas)

Dallas is mad. I mean, really mad. They just lost a game thanks to a couple bonehead plays and their defense didn't even let up an offensive touchdown. They're gonna be out for blood. If there was one team in the league I wouldn't want to be this week, it would be the Bears. Cutler will throw his interceptions, no way getting around that. He had one last week and also fumbled once. And that was against Detroit. We're talking about the Dallas defense. This one could get ugly.

Matt Forte (at Dallas)

See above.

Justin Forsett (at Denver)

From what I saw of Forsett last week, he actually looked pretty good. The problem lies in the existence of Leon Washington and Julius Jones. Last week, Forsett had 10 touches for 60 yards, compared to Washington's 6 for 12, and Jones' 8 for 18. It's obvious that Forsett is the best one of the bunch but as long as the three-way timeshare exists, I'm not starting him. But I wouldn't drop him.

Thomas Jones (at Cleveland)

Make no mistake, it's the Jamaal Charles show in Kansas City. Sure, Jones technically got the start last week but they each split carries 50-50. The difference is, Jones' 11 carries went for 39 yards and Charles' went for 92 and a TD. It's obvious that Charles is the one you would prefer to have but, if Charles were to get hurt, Jones could be a great play. This is not the situation right now, however. Don't start Jones.

Cedric Benson (vs. Baltimore)

Okay, yes, I know Benson ran over Baltimore last year. But that was last year. Baltimore's defense looks much improved this year and Benson did not look that good against New England last year. Could Benson do well? Yes, of course. He's good enough, for sure. And, let me make this clear, I'm not saying to bench Benson immediately. But, if you have, for example, a must-start like AP and let's say someone like Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews (if you got those four RBs, congrats to you), I'd go ahead and bench Benson this week.

Hakeem Nicks (at Indianapolis)

Yes, he went off last week. And yes, everyone who had him on their bench last week is kicking themselves. But Indianapolis has watched the tape and saw Nicks. And they also noticed that he only had four catches. Everyone knows that Nicks won't maintain the 70 yards and 3 TD weekly production but I think that this ends up being one of the worst weeks of his year. I think only around 40 yards or so.

Randy Moss (at New York Jets)

Yep, Randy Moss. If I have the choice, I do not start Randy Moss this week. You read that correctly. The explanation? #24 on the Jets. He's pretty good. That's Darrelle Revis. And Moss has not done well against Revis in the past. In two meetings last year, he had four catches for 24 yards in one game and five catches for 34 and a TD in the other. Could Moss score this week? Absolutely. If anyone could score, it's Moss. But Revis is really good and has owned Moss in the past. And, if I have better options, Moss is on my bench this week.

Legedu Naanee (vs. Jacksonville)

Naanee had a great game against Jacksonville but, if there is a San Diego receiver that I want to own, it's still Malcom Floyd. Naanee's stat line for last week was five catches for 11o yards and a TD on eight targets. Floyd, on the other hand, only had three catches for 48 yards but was targeted 12 times (8th in the league amongst WRs and TEs). Naanee also has to compete with Antonio Gates (five catches for 76 yards and a TD on six targets) and looks to be the third option for Philip Rivers. Will he have good games? Yes. But will he have bad games? Also yes. And I'm thinking the bad will outnumber the good.

Mike Wallace (at Tennessee)

I mentioned Hines Ward in my Exceeds Expectations post and, basically, the reasoning for him being there is the exact same reasoning why Mike Wallace is here. Now, I love Mike Wallace this year and think that he does really well...once Ben Roethlisberger gets back. Until then, I just don't have the confidence in Dennis Dixon to get him the ball enough to put up good fantasy games.

Greg Olsen (at Dallas)

Greg Olsen has previously been Cutler's security blanket but, last week, it looked to be Matt Forte. That, combined with the fact that Mike Martz doesn't seem to use his tight ends, makes me want to avoid Olsen this year.

Tim's Offensive Players of the Week - Week One

With Week Two looming ahead, let's take a look at some great individual offensive performances that really stood out in Week One.

AFC Offensive Player of the Week

RB Arian Foster

#23 Houston Texans

33 carries, 231 yards, 7.0 ypc, 3 TD

1 reception, 7 yards

Foster put the Texans on his back and marched them to a crucial early-season divisional match-up against the Indianapolis Colts.

NFC Offensive Player of the Week

QB Michael Vick

#7 Philadelphia Eagles

16-24, 175 yards, TD, 101.9 QB rating

11 carries, 103 yards, 9.3 ypc

Stepping in for an injured Kevin Kolb, Vick performed admirably against a tough Green Bay defense. He led the NFC in individual rushing yards and yards per carry in Week One.

All images are (c) National Football League, available at http://www.NFL.com.

The Adam Swanson Quote of the Week #1

So, as a joke, Tim and I said we should get an Adam Swanson Quote of the Week for each week. Well, dreams are about to become reality as I just found our first one, courtesy Matt Wooten.

With regards to Ray Lewis before the New York Jets game:

"Ray Lewis is the greatest writer I've ever heard. If Shakespeare wrote like that, I would've paid attention in English."

Week 2: Great Expecations

Trouble in San Diego? What happened there, Chargers? A team that everyone, and I can't stress everyone enough, picked for AFC West Champs went down to Kansas City, who amassed a spectacular 62 yards passing and were outgained 389 yards to 197. Is there panic in San Diego? If there isn't there certainly is concern. As there was all across the board for the first week of the season.

It was an interesting Week 1. There were plenty of fantasy studs (*cough* Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice *cough*) who were barely in the boxscores while it was the middle round picks who excelled. Arian Foster looked ridiculous and is a must start going forward until he proves otherwise. Now, as mentioned before, players who make the Great Expectations list are players who I think will do well this week and, while not necessarily should be started if you have a stud as an alternative, could be a solid play. So, without any more waiting, here are my Great Expectations for Week 2.

Philip Rivers (vs. Jacksonville)

I admit, I was nervous about Rivers this year without Pro Bowlers Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson, both of whom are still holding out. But Rivers put those fears to rest with a very good showing in a loss to Kansas City on Monday Night. Rivers completed 22 passes on 39 attempts for 298 yards and 2 TDs (1 to Antonio Gates, 1 to Legedu Naanee). However, he did lose 2 fumbles. Still, Rivers still looked like a stud and I would start him with confidence from here on out. In the preseason, I ranked Rivers at 7th behind Romo. I'd bump him up to 6th now.

Matt Ryan (vs. Arizona)

While I'm not crazy about Ryan and actually feel that he has regressed, I would start him this week if I had questions at QB. He's playing Arizona, a team that let Sam Bradford throw for 253 yards last week. Sure, they had 3 INTs but one of those came on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. Ryan is a better NFL QB than Bradford at this point. And Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are a lot better than Mark Clayton and...who is the St. Louis TE? I expect the Atlanta offense to show up this week after being almost nonexistent last week.

Michael Vick (at Detroit)

Okay, this one is if you're really hurting at QB. But he plays Detroit. And, if you saw the Eagles play last week, you might have noticed something: Vick looked really good. He was throwing it well and looked like the Vick of old when he decided to use his feet. I think a week of practicing with the first team offense will allow him and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to get more comfortable with each other and have all three of them put up better numbers. So, if you're in a hole at QB or are in a Eh, what the hell? kind of mood, you could do a whole lot worse than Vick.

Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson(vs. New England)

This is a gut call. But if there's one thing the Jets can do, it's run the ball. Sure, they didn't show it last Monday. But that's because the only thing the Jets showed was that they lacked discipline. That, and that Mark Sanchez is not good (which Tim and I both said before the season). So, when you have a bad QB, what do you do? You run it. And when you play a team like the Patriots, who are bound to score, what do you do? You throw it! And who does Mark Sanchez throw to? I'll give you a clue: It wasn't really his receivers. Mark Sanchez likes to check it down and who will reel in those passes? Look up.

Brandon Jackson (vs. Buffalo)

Ryan Grant is done for the year which means that Jackson is now the feature back in Green Bay. Buffalo is bad. Aaron Rodgers is good. Green Bay is good. Green Bay will get up early. Green Bay will then run the ball. Do the math. If he's available in your league, go go go!

Marion Barber and Felix Jones (vs. Chicago)

If there was one thing I noticed from the Cowboys Redskins game, it was that Dallas actually looked really good running the ball. Both Barber and Jones looked to have a good first step and were running downhill the entire game. While they split carries evenly (Barber was 8 for 39 and Jones was 8 for 38), I expect that they find the endzone this week. That's right. I think both score TDs.

Hines Ward (at Tennessee)

God damn it, I don't want to write this. But I like Ward this week. A solid possession receiver is exactly what a young quarterback like Dennis Dixon likes to look for and Ward is the definition of a possession receiver. He runs crisp routes and has pretty good hands. Last week, he caught 6 passes for 108 yards. And I expect Tennessee to target Mike Wallace to avoid getting burned by the deep ball. Expect a bunch of short gains for Ward but eventually those catches and yards will begin to pile up.

Wes Welker (at New York Jets)

Speaking of things that I learned from the Ravens-Jets game, the Jets corners can't cover multiple good receivers. The Patriots have two very good receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Something tells me that Revis will stick Moss, leaving Welker to do what he does best. When he played against the Jets last year, he caught 15 passes for 192 yards and added an 11 yard run. 20 fantasy points? I'd take it.

Donald Driver (vs. Buffalo)

With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, I pretty much like everyone on Green Bay. I expect Driver to get a few catches, possibly a touchdown and then kinda watch as the Packers proceed to run all over the Bills. If you start him, be warned: the Packers will probably not throw the whole game.

Dez Bryant (vs. Chicago)

He had a team-high 12 targets last week, catching 8 of them for 56 yards. I expect those numbers to go up and for the rookie to find the endzone for the first time in his NFL career. He's too special to not get a catch so you're pretty much guaranteed to get some points. This kid's gonna be good.

John Carlson (at Denver)

It's sad that for all of the throwing Matt Hasselbeck did last week against San Francisco, he only found Carlson three times. Expect those numbers to go up this week. Carlson is too talented for Seattle to not get him the ball and Hasselbeck has even said that he likes Carlson as a fantasy tight end. And Hasselbeck plays fantasy! If you don't have a top tier tight end, Carlson could be your answer.

Chris Cooley (vs. Houston)

Cooley managed 6 catches for 80 yards last week against Dallas and seemed to be developing some chemistry with QB Donovan McNabb. Houston did let Dallas Clark score a TD against them last week and Chris Cooley is Dallas Clark light. Like, really light. Still, you could do worse than Cooley this week.

Okay, my Do Not Want list should be up tomorrow. Until then, you stay classy, San Diego.

Week 1 Injuries

There were two very costly injuries this week, leading to key starters hitting the IR. First in Green Bay, starting halfback Ryan Grant sustained a serious ankle injury, forcing him to miss the rest of the season. He is expected to have surgery and need at least one screw inserted into his ankle to help it heal.

During last night's game versus the Ravens, the Jets' starting defensive tackle Kris Jenkins suffered his second straight torn left anterior cruciate ligament while trying to tackle Ravens fullback Le'Ron McClain. This injury comes one year after tearing the same ACL in 2009. He was put on the IR and will have to decide whether to give it another comeback next season or to hang it up after this injury.

Also, around the league, there were four concussions that will be closely monitored by the NFL's more stringent policies surrounding head injuries. Eagles' quarterback Kevin Kolb and linebacker Stewart Bradley both suffered concussions against the Packers, as did Panthers' quarterback Matt Moore and Giants' tight end Kevin Boss.

Backup QBs Michael Vick (Eagles) and Jimmy Clausen (Panthers) stepped in after these injuries and are currently preparing to go for next week if the NFL won't clear the starters to play after suffering a head injury.