Week 4: What I Learned

We're a quarter of the way through the season and there is only one team left undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs? Yep, everyone who predicted that one, raise your hand. What, nobody? Todd Haley? No, not even you? Anyway, with the last undefeated team not playing this week, here's what I learned.

1. The unexpected top scorer of the week was...the Patriots D/ST? Yep, the leading points scorer for the week was the Patriots D/ST, thanks to 4 INTs, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, 2 sacks, and 3 TDs, including one kick return. Do they keep it up? I doubt it. I think they're much more of a matchup play, and an iffy one at that. In two weeks this year, they have gotten 49 fantasy points, more than Tony Romo, Roddy White, Dallas Clark, and DeSean Jackson, to name a few. Those games were against Cincinnati (16 pts) and, of course, yesterday against Miami (33 pts). However, in the other two, they managed a grand total of 0 points (-1 against the Jets and 1 against the Bills). My verdict: don't buy into the Pats but if you can sell high, go right ahead.
   
   
2. I think the NFL Fountain of Youth has been discovered. The number 3 and 4 scorers for the week, out of everybody, were Terrell Owens (28) and LaDainian Tomlinson (27), who looked like their 3-years-ago selves. T.O. had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in a loss to the Browns and L.T. (I love these two letter nicknames) who had 19 carries for 133 yards and a TD, as well as 3 catches for 22 yards. Now, the big question on fantasy owners' minds is "Can they keep it up?" I think L.T. can and T.O. might, but that's a very questionable might. L.T. is the clear top RB in New York and, as a result, is the 9th RB overall right now. I think he winds up just outside the top 10 but in the top 15. T.O., on the other hand, looks to be consistent, but more in the 5-6 points per game. He will have these big games every now and then but, for the most part, will be a #3 fantasy receiver. I am proud to say that in my league that starts 3 WRs, I decided to start Johnny Knox over T.O. That wound up being a 26 point difference. I went on to lose by 5. Damn it all.
   
   
3. Arian Foster, top 10 running back. That's four weeks and four double digit games for a guy who went in the 5th-6th round in most drafts. Also, he has three 100 yard games out of four total. Do you know who else has three 100 yard games? Nobody. Prediction: Foster finishes as a top 10 RB, and I might go as far to say in the top 5.
   
   
4. The top pass catcher, out of WRs and TEs, is...Antonio Gates. Yep, Gates has the most points out of all WRs and TEs so far this year. And his stats are crazy. He's scored in every game, has no less than 5 catches in any week, has two 100 yard games in a row, and has caught 24 of the 34 balls thrown his way. So far, he has 24 catches for 386 yards and 6 TDs. For those of you doing the math, he catches a TD once in every four receptions. I doubt he keeps this hot streak up all year but ride him if you've got him.
   
   
5. Let's not forget the third overall pass catcher...Dustin Keller? What has gotten into these tight ends? Okay, for reference, out of tight ends and wide receivers, here are the top four scorers so far.
   1. Antonio Gates
   2. Austin Collie
   3. Dustin Keller (tie)
   3. Reggie Wayne (tie)
   After getting smacked by Ray Lewis and then stepping out of bounds 1 yard short of the first down in Week 1 against the Ravens, Keller has exploded for 17 point, 21 point, and 14 point games in three straight weeks, scoring 5 TDs and catching 17 balls for 241 yards. I had him as my 15th tight end overall in the preseason. Consider him a top 10 option from here on out.
   
   
6. An odd assortment of the top 5 QBs for the week. There were only 5 QBs to score over 20 points this week. In order, they were David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Manning is a stud and must start every week. No more to say about him. Kyle Orton has now scored 20+ points in three straight weeks and is currently the 4th best QB. I think he's legit. Shaun Hill did what every Lions QB needs to do: get the ball to Calvin Johnson, who had 6 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs on 11 targets. I think he actually needs to get the ball more. He could be a decent bye week fill in, depending on the matchup. Fitzpatrick now has 2 TDs in two straight weeks after being declared the starter. He could also be a bye week filler in deeper leagues. Honestly, the only one I'm not buying is the guy who lead all QBs in points this week: David Garrard. I think this was the perfect definition of a fluke. I still couldn't bring myself to start him.
   
   
7. Injuries, injuries, injuries. A bunch of big names either got injured or were limited by injuries this week.
   
   Heading the list is Michael Vick, who is week-to-week with rib cartilage damage. Kevin Kolb starts while he's out and, honestly, who knows what's going to happen with the QB situation in Philly.
   
   Darren McFadden injured his hamstring in the 3rd quarter against Houston and did not return. He's said to be day to day. If he were to miss time, Michael Bush would get the start. McFadden actually has double digit points every week this week.
   
   Ahmad Bradshaw came up limping after a play in the fourth quarter. He will probably be limited this week in practice but should be back for next week. Expect Brandon Jacobs to see more carries this week.
   
   Clinton Portis says he will probably not play this week against Green Bay. Ryan Torain looks to be the primary back while he is out. Torain looked good against Philadelphia with 18 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He's a must-add, if he hasn't been already.
   
   LeSean McCoy is out indefinitely with a fractured rib. McCoy has been a top 5 RB so far this year so this is a big blow. Mike Bell will likely start in his place.
   
   Ryan Mathews was said to be healthy but Norv Turner insisted on keeping Mike Tolbert as the primary back. Mathews still managed a TD to save his fantasy day but Turner says that Mathews will be the primary back moving forward and was being eased back. He has Oakland this week. No worries.
   
   Ray Rice didn't get the start against Pittsburgh but after Willis McGahee went down with an injury, Rice got some carries. McGahee says he'll be back this week and Rice has said that he felt no problems with his knee. No worries.
   
   Andre Johnson didn't play this week and is still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's a top option. If he doesn't, well, then he's not.
   
   Jay Cutler suffered a concussion and did not return to action Sunday night against the Giants. But not before he turned in a 42 yard, 4 turnover performance. Fantasy owners were not pleased. He is expected to play against the Panthers this week but be sure to monitor his performance throughout the week.
   
   
8. Okay, I am now officially wrong about the 49ers. They are now 0-4 and my 13-3 preseason prediction is gone. So far, they've played two good games and two terrible games. As of now, I think Frank Gore is the only 49er who you can start with confidence every week, but Vernon Davis should be a top 10 tight end by the end of the year. They can't be this bad all year, can they? Can they????
   
   
9. Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand? Oh, to take down the Steelers. It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day (12 pts) but it showed that he can beat the top tier teams, something that he was being criticized heavily for all year. I expect him to keep getting better and finish in the top 10-top 15 QBs.

The Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks are on byes this week. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, and Brian Cushing all return from suspensions. Kansas City looks to remain undefeated but have the Colts and Texans in the next two weeks.

Also, the Bills have just traded running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 pick. The Seahawks are said to release RB Julius Jones. This hurts Justin Forsett's value and we'll look at how their running game looks in two weeks when they play the Bears.

Week 4: Predictions

After three weeks, we've got three undefeated teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Bears) and five winless teams (Lions, Panthers, 49ers, Bills, Browns). The current prediction standings are:

Tim: 27-21 (10-6)

Dan: 26-22 (10-6)

Here are our Week 4 Predictions:

San Francisco at Atlanta

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

New York Jets at Buffalo

Tim: New York

Dan: New York

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Detroit at Green Bay

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Denver at Tennessee

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

Seattle at St. Louis

Tim: Seattle

Dan: Seattle

Carolina at New Orleans

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Houston at Oakland

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Washington at Philadelphia

Tim: Philadelphia

Dan: Philadelphia

Arizona at San Diego

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Chicago at New York Giants

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Chicago

New England at Miami

Tim: Miami

Dan: Miami

Holy crap, this is wild. Barring changes, we each have the same picks for every game.

Week 4: Great Expectations

This would've been up earlier if it wasn't for me getting swamped with homework this week. Anyway, I was almost completely wrong with my predictions from last week, getting only Darren McFadden and Tony Romo right. Not a good week. 2/10. Anyway, here are the players that I think wind up exceeding expectations for week 4. With four teams on a bye (Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, and Buccaneers), some of you might be looking for fill in starters. Hopefully, this helps.

Chad Henne (vs. New England)

Last week, Henne showed us why many had him projected as a big sleeper for 2010. He threw for 363 yards and 2 TDs against a very capable Jets pass defense (albeit, without Darrelle Revis) on his way to a 20 fantasy point game. This week, he draws the Patriots, who are 26th in terms of opposing quarterback fantasy points. They've given up 19, 22, and 14 points in the first three weeks of the year. And I don't see anybody in that secondary who can match up with Brandon Marshall. If you have Romo and are looking for a substitute, you could do a whole lot worse than Henne.

Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler is the 5th fantasy QB this year and is playing the Giants, who are 10th against opposing QBs in fantasy points. But those stats about the Giants D are kinda misleading. In week 1, they played Carolina and, let's face it, Carolina's QB situation is in shambles. Next, they faced Peyton Manning and got lit up. In week 3, they played against Vince Young, who only needed to throw it 16 times in a win. I see Cutler as being closer to Manning than Young or Moore/Clausen and the Giants looked terrible last week. I don't see them getting much better. Cutler looks good to go.

Michael Vick (vs. Washington)

Comeback player of the year? If you were lucky enough to nab the #2 fantasy quarterback in free agency (or if you drafted him, more power to you), ride the train as long as you can. He's been phenomenal this year and now draws the Redskins' 26th ranked fantasy QB defense. Vick's a must start from here on out. Woof.

Arian Foster (at Oakland)

After exploding for 41 points in week 1, Foster has managed only 12 and 10 points in weeks 2 and 3. I say only because, well, he set the bar really high with his week 1 performance. Now he faces an Oakland defense that has given up an average of 21 ppg to fantasy running backs. Yeah, I'd say start him.

Darren McFadden (vs. Houston)

I had him on this list last week and I'll put him here again. He's finally a feature back this year! And he's looked the part too. If Oakland wants to have any shot against the Texans, they're gonna need to use this guy. He's the biggest playmaker on the team and I'd be shocked if Houston gets beat through the air by Bruce Gradkowski. I'd say McFadden's just about a must start at this point. Of course, that could change at the drop of a hat (or an Al Davis).

Justin Forsett (at St. Louis)

If you are a Forsett owner and saw his stats from last week, you probably were breathing a sigh of relief. He finally got all of the carries and Pete Carroll stopped using Julius Jones and let Leon Washington do his kick returns. Now he gets St. Louis which, if you remember the rule from last year, "If you're player is going up against St. Louis, you start him." Yes, I'm a bit hesitant because I want to see him in the feature back role for two weeks in a row but, again, with bye weeks, go right ahead.

Ryan Mathews (vs. Arizona)

He was inactive last week with an ankle injury but all signs point to go for this week. Arizona is 29th against fantasy running backs and Mathews is better than your average running back. Just make sure he's active. He should be, but just be positive.

Mark Clayton (vs. Seattle)

Who would've guessed that St. Louis was just what Marky Mark needed? Through three games, he's the 13 best receiver in fantasy. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. Bradford looks to him early and often and Clayton catches about two thirds of the passes thrown his way. Seattle allows the 25th most points to fantasy receivers and Clayton's performance through three games makes him a solid #2 receiver.

Johnny Knox (at New York Giants)

I mentioned Jay Cutler above and Knox is his preferred target. He's a deep threat and has seen his numbers improve each game this year. I think he finds the end zone this week on a deep ball. He's due.

Kevin Walter (at Oakland)

Three receivers have scored in every game this year. They are Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Walter, the numbers 1, 5, and 7 fantasy receivers respectively. I expect Nnamdi Asomugha to be on Andre Johnson this week and for Walter to get open and extend his streak to four games.

Jeremy Maclin (vs. Washington)

He's got Kevin Walter numbers but better. And you already know what I think about Vick. Start him.

Marques Colston (vs. Carolina)

He's gotta break out one of these weeks, right? Right???

Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

Finley is the fourth tight end in fantasy and has yet to score a TD. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? Tight ends don't get yards, they get TDs! But Finley, who has been targeted 21 times, has caught 17 of them, for an 81% completion percentage. He's gotta find the end zone one of these weeks and, when he does, his numbers will be crazy. Start him until further notice.

Jeremy Shockey (vs. Carolina)

He had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD last week and looked like the tight end the Saints wanted when they acquired him. Carolina doesn't give up that many points to tight ends but I think Shockey does well this week. With Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Visanthe Shiancoe on a bye this week, Shockey's a more than capable fill in.

I hope to get my Do Not Want list up tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your fantasies.