Week 6: What I Learned

I've been getting behind on posting so I'll just go through What I Learned from this past week before moving on to my Great Expectations for the week. However, I would like to point out that I am now 1-5 when it comes to picking games involving San Francisco. They've been killing me all year but, damn it, I still think they win the division!

1. Oh Michael Turner, where art thou? In one of my keeper leagues, I elected to keep both Michael Turner and Frank Gore in the hopes of building a very solid running back corps. I went on to draft Ryan Mathews in the 3rd, Tony Romo in the 4th, and Jermichael Finley (damn) in the 5th, before I selected a wide receiver. I was convinced that my RBs would be my strength and WRs would be my downfall. Now, six weeks in, I realized I was wrong. Show of hands, who has been annoyed by Michael Turner this year? Yep, that's what I thought. So far, he only has 1 TD and two games where he has exceeded 10 points. He is the 19th overall RB, behind Maurice Jones-Drew (also disappointing) and Mike Tolbert (who is actually a fullback!). This lead me to think: which preseason studs should you sell or which should you buy low on?
   
   For Michael Turner, I say buy low. Maurice Jones-Drew, I would try to sell. Ray Rice is actually 13th in fantasy points but, considering he was basically a top 5 pick, I say buy as low as you can. But your window is closing fast. If I have DeAngelo Williams, I'm trying to sell him for whatever I can get at this point. Cedric Benson is a buy low, I think. I have a feeling that Cincinnati will start using him a lot more. Shonn Greene would be a sell, I think, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing more action down the line. I think Ryan Mathews is a perfect buy low and I expect him to have a monster 2nd half of the season and I'm trying to get him in as many leagues as possible. Beanie Wells should be sold and, even with a rookie QB, I'm not expecting much from him for the rest of the year. I'm buying Knowshon Moreno and, with Kyle Orton's hot start, I think he puts up some decent receiving numbers for the rest of the year.
   
   
2. An Eagles resurgence under Kevin Kolb? Whoever is throwing the ball in Philadelphia will be getting it to Jeremy Maclin, but when I think Kolb will actually use him more. In the past two weeks, he has had six and seven catches for 254 yards and 2 TDs. I think he finishes the season higher than DeSean Jackson. Kolb is also a viable fantasy starter for as long as he starts in Philly. And LeSean McCoy should be starting every week.
   
   
3. Maybe a terrible week was exactly what Dwayne Bowe needed. A week after he dropped what seemed like every pass thrown to him, Dwayne Bowe reeled in six of the nine passes thrown his was for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Do I buy it? Well, he certainly has the talent to do it consistently. But I don't think he has a quarterback who will let him do it consistently. If you have Dwayne Bowe and someone offers you a trade for him, I'd say do it.
   
   
4. I am never sitting Calvin Johnson again, no matter how close to not playing he is. Flashback to Sunday morning. I'm sitting at my computer, looking at my fantasy team, debating who to start between Johnny Knox and Calvin Johnson. I ultimately went with Knox, because I thought one bad hit from the Giants secondary would knock Johnson out of the game. And, while Knox did not have a bad game by any means (5 catches for 120 yards. Granted, he did have 11 targets) and got me 12 points, Johnson had 5 for 146 and a TD, for 20 points. He has 5 TDs on the year (should have six but there was that ruling in Chicago in Week 1) and I will never bench him again. I think he finishes in the top 5 of WRs.
   
   
5. Do you remember the 2008 Denver season where they seemed to lose a running back each week? Well, I do. And I think that, on one team, I owned every single one of them at one point or another. Notable names from that list that are performing well this year: Peyton Hillis (9th overall RB and has no less than 8 points in every game this year) and Ryan Torain (starting RB in Washington and lead all RBs in points this week). I like both very much for the rest of the year and both will jump in my rankings the next time they come out.
   
   
6. Week 6: Concussionfest. Now, I've had my fair share of concussions in my life, mostly from stupid things, but I recognize how dangerous they can be. There were a bunch of concussions and helmet-to-helmet hits this past week. Todd Heap, DeSean Jackson, Josh Cribbs, and Mohamed Massaquoi were all on the receiving end on some of these hits. The only one I really thought was a cheap shot was the one on Heap. The hit on Jackson looked legal and I think it was just bad luck that both Jackson and Dunta Robinson got hurt. James Harrison's hit on Cribbs was legal and his one on Massaquoi...I don't know. It didn't look illegal but I heard the rule about it. The rule says that if a player has made the catch but hasn't had time to defend himself (caught the ball but hasn't turned to move and defend himself), the defender cannot explode into and upward on the hit and that's what Harrison did. I don't like it, but it is the rule. Any fantasy implications here? None, other than you won't be seeing Jackson or Massaquoi this week.
   
   
7. Bye bye, Dallas Clark. So, in the two leagues that I care the most about, my tight ends were Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark. Damn, damn, damn! Both are now on Injured Reserve and are out for the rest of the year. So, from now on, when I draft a league that I care about, I will post my tight ends and you will know which tight ends not to draft.
   
   
8. Colt McCoy...future fantasy stud? Browns' rookie QB, Colt McCoy (who was not supposed to play this year), got his first start against the tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense this past week, thanks to injuries to Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. And he looked pretty good. Here are his numbers: 23/33 for 281 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and 4 carries for 22 yards. Sure, it was only 13 fantasy points but that is actually the most that the Steelers defense has allowed to an opposing QB this year. I think McCoy's gonna be good. Keep an eye on him.

Week 7's Great Expectations should be up later today.

Week 5: What I Learned

San Francisco. San Francisco. God dammit, San Francisco. Back in the preseason, here is the first two lines that I wrote when Tim and I were doing our preseason predictions for the NFC West:

"I'm probably too high on San Francisco this year but I don't care. I think this is the year they put it all together."

Oops. Well, I was right, in a sense. I was too high on San Francisco. Waaaay too high. I had them pegged at 13-3, Tim at 10-6. Both of us had them finishing 1st in the division. Am I ready to go back on my word? No! I still think they win the division! You heard me. And it's not out of faith in San Francisco but a complete lack of faith in everybody else in the division. Arizona leads the division at 3-2 and I actually think they're the worst team. So far, they've been outscored by 50 points. How are they over .500?! Seattle is going to be horribly inconsistent for the rest of the year and they haven't actually played that well this year. And St. Louis actually looks like the best bet to unseat San Francisco as the best team. But I don't think they will. I'm still picking San Francisco to win the NFC West!

Fun Fact: I've picked SF to win every game this year. I've been wrong each time.

Alright, here's what I learned from Week 5.

1. Thank you, thank you, thank you Malcom Floyd! All preseason, I was saying how high I was on Malcom Floyd. I have him in practically all of my leagues, and I was often taking him in late rounds, simply because people had no idea who he was. But Floyd has been fantastic this year, and is now the #4 wide receiver, thanks to his 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD game against Oakland. I don't think he slows down. But the best part? Oakland has probably the best pass defense he's faced all year. Someone asked me if Floyd is a sell high? No, he's for real.

2. Actually, who saw these top 4 WRs coming? In order, these are the top four scoring wide receivers, in order. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, Austin Collie, Malcom Floyd. Their average rounds drafter? 8th, undrafted, 13th, 9th. Ride the fantasy studs! I think they keep it up. If anybody were to fall out of this group, it would probably be Collie, simply because there are too many other targets in that Colts offense.

3. Another week, another score. Non-QBs who have scored in every week: Peyton Hillis, Antonio Gates. That's it. Hillis didn't have a rushing TD this week but had a nifty catch and made it in for the score. And Gates...what hasn't been said about him? He's a beast. Plain and simple. To put this in perspective, if I had Gates and somebody were to offer me Andre Johnson for him, at this point in the year, I don't think I could accept that deal. He's been that good.

4. God damn it, those injuries! Big fantasy injuries this week. Mark Clayton, who was making a case for Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, is now done for the year. Jermichael Finley, one of the top tight ends in the league, has a torn meniscus and is expected to be out for anywhere from 8 weeks to the whole season (I had him in a bunch of leagues. Damn it!). Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in garbage time last week (why was he on the field???) and is currently listed as questionable for this week's game against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers got hit and received a concussion on the Packers' last offensive play. He's questionable as well.

5. I've been calling for Ryan Mathews to have a big week for the past two weeks. He looked healthy last week and had 9 carries for 59 yards (9 carries for 55 and a TD the week before) and Mike Tolbert looked awful. 12 carries for 11 yards and a goal line fumble. This week is the week of Mathews (I will say that until it happens)!

6. Greg Jennings vs. Donald Driver. Look at the numbers. Driver has 25 catches for 376 yards and 3 TDs on 34 targets while Jennings has 14 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs on 31 targets. Driver has the better numbers. Driver is the better fantasy play. And, with Finley now out for a significant period of time, expect Driver to get more of his targets. If you can sell high on Jennings, I'd say do it.

7. Here's another one: Chad Ochocinco vs. Terrell Owens. Their numbers: Owens has 31 catches for 476 yards and 2 TDs on 61 targets. Ochocinco has 26 catches for 316 yards and 1 TD on 44 targets. I'm picking Owens. Ocho actually has one more point than Greg Jennings.

8. Ben Roethlisberger comes back this week. Hide your women! With the return of Big Ben, the entire Steelers offense will get a boost and, as a result, so will fantasy players. Mike Wallace is the one who actually gets the biggest boost since he can now get deep balls. I also think Heath Miller's stock rises considerably. Ben looks to him a lot and, if you just lost Jermichael Finley, Miller could be a good fill in.

Week 4: What I Learned

We're a quarter of the way through the season and there is only one team left undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs? Yep, everyone who predicted that one, raise your hand. What, nobody? Todd Haley? No, not even you? Anyway, with the last undefeated team not playing this week, here's what I learned.

1. The unexpected top scorer of the week was...the Patriots D/ST? Yep, the leading points scorer for the week was the Patriots D/ST, thanks to 4 INTs, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, 2 sacks, and 3 TDs, including one kick return. Do they keep it up? I doubt it. I think they're much more of a matchup play, and an iffy one at that. In two weeks this year, they have gotten 49 fantasy points, more than Tony Romo, Roddy White, Dallas Clark, and DeSean Jackson, to name a few. Those games were against Cincinnati (16 pts) and, of course, yesterday against Miami (33 pts). However, in the other two, they managed a grand total of 0 points (-1 against the Jets and 1 against the Bills). My verdict: don't buy into the Pats but if you can sell high, go right ahead.
   
   
2. I think the NFL Fountain of Youth has been discovered. The number 3 and 4 scorers for the week, out of everybody, were Terrell Owens (28) and LaDainian Tomlinson (27), who looked like their 3-years-ago selves. T.O. had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in a loss to the Browns and L.T. (I love these two letter nicknames) who had 19 carries for 133 yards and a TD, as well as 3 catches for 22 yards. Now, the big question on fantasy owners' minds is "Can they keep it up?" I think L.T. can and T.O. might, but that's a very questionable might. L.T. is the clear top RB in New York and, as a result, is the 9th RB overall right now. I think he winds up just outside the top 10 but in the top 15. T.O., on the other hand, looks to be consistent, but more in the 5-6 points per game. He will have these big games every now and then but, for the most part, will be a #3 fantasy receiver. I am proud to say that in my league that starts 3 WRs, I decided to start Johnny Knox over T.O. That wound up being a 26 point difference. I went on to lose by 5. Damn it all.
   
   
3. Arian Foster, top 10 running back. That's four weeks and four double digit games for a guy who went in the 5th-6th round in most drafts. Also, he has three 100 yard games out of four total. Do you know who else has three 100 yard games? Nobody. Prediction: Foster finishes as a top 10 RB, and I might go as far to say in the top 5.
   
   
4. The top pass catcher, out of WRs and TEs, is...Antonio Gates. Yep, Gates has the most points out of all WRs and TEs so far this year. And his stats are crazy. He's scored in every game, has no less than 5 catches in any week, has two 100 yard games in a row, and has caught 24 of the 34 balls thrown his way. So far, he has 24 catches for 386 yards and 6 TDs. For those of you doing the math, he catches a TD once in every four receptions. I doubt he keeps this hot streak up all year but ride him if you've got him.
   
   
5. Let's not forget the third overall pass catcher...Dustin Keller? What has gotten into these tight ends? Okay, for reference, out of tight ends and wide receivers, here are the top four scorers so far.
   1. Antonio Gates
   2. Austin Collie
   3. Dustin Keller (tie)
   3. Reggie Wayne (tie)
   After getting smacked by Ray Lewis and then stepping out of bounds 1 yard short of the first down in Week 1 against the Ravens, Keller has exploded for 17 point, 21 point, and 14 point games in three straight weeks, scoring 5 TDs and catching 17 balls for 241 yards. I had him as my 15th tight end overall in the preseason. Consider him a top 10 option from here on out.
   
   
6. An odd assortment of the top 5 QBs for the week. There were only 5 QBs to score over 20 points this week. In order, they were David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Manning is a stud and must start every week. No more to say about him. Kyle Orton has now scored 20+ points in three straight weeks and is currently the 4th best QB. I think he's legit. Shaun Hill did what every Lions QB needs to do: get the ball to Calvin Johnson, who had 6 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs on 11 targets. I think he actually needs to get the ball more. He could be a decent bye week fill in, depending on the matchup. Fitzpatrick now has 2 TDs in two straight weeks after being declared the starter. He could also be a bye week filler in deeper leagues. Honestly, the only one I'm not buying is the guy who lead all QBs in points this week: David Garrard. I think this was the perfect definition of a fluke. I still couldn't bring myself to start him.
   
   
7. Injuries, injuries, injuries. A bunch of big names either got injured or were limited by injuries this week.
   
   Heading the list is Michael Vick, who is week-to-week with rib cartilage damage. Kevin Kolb starts while he's out and, honestly, who knows what's going to happen with the QB situation in Philly.
   
   Darren McFadden injured his hamstring in the 3rd quarter against Houston and did not return. He's said to be day to day. If he were to miss time, Michael Bush would get the start. McFadden actually has double digit points every week this week.
   
   Ahmad Bradshaw came up limping after a play in the fourth quarter. He will probably be limited this week in practice but should be back for next week. Expect Brandon Jacobs to see more carries this week.
   
   Clinton Portis says he will probably not play this week against Green Bay. Ryan Torain looks to be the primary back while he is out. Torain looked good against Philadelphia with 18 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He's a must-add, if he hasn't been already.
   
   LeSean McCoy is out indefinitely with a fractured rib. McCoy has been a top 5 RB so far this year so this is a big blow. Mike Bell will likely start in his place.
   
   Ryan Mathews was said to be healthy but Norv Turner insisted on keeping Mike Tolbert as the primary back. Mathews still managed a TD to save his fantasy day but Turner says that Mathews will be the primary back moving forward and was being eased back. He has Oakland this week. No worries.
   
   Ray Rice didn't get the start against Pittsburgh but after Willis McGahee went down with an injury, Rice got some carries. McGahee says he'll be back this week and Rice has said that he felt no problems with his knee. No worries.
   
   Andre Johnson didn't play this week and is still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's a top option. If he doesn't, well, then he's not.
   
   Jay Cutler suffered a concussion and did not return to action Sunday night against the Giants. But not before he turned in a 42 yard, 4 turnover performance. Fantasy owners were not pleased. He is expected to play against the Panthers this week but be sure to monitor his performance throughout the week.
   
   
8. Okay, I am now officially wrong about the 49ers. They are now 0-4 and my 13-3 preseason prediction is gone. So far, they've played two good games and two terrible games. As of now, I think Frank Gore is the only 49er who you can start with confidence every week, but Vernon Davis should be a top 10 tight end by the end of the year. They can't be this bad all year, can they? Can they????
   
   
9. Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand? Oh, to take down the Steelers. It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day (12 pts) but it showed that he can beat the top tier teams, something that he was being criticized heavily for all year. I expect him to keep getting better and finish in the top 10-top 15 QBs.

The Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks are on byes this week. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, and Brian Cushing all return from suspensions. Kansas City looks to remain undefeated but have the Colts and Texans in the next two weeks.

Also, the Bills have just traded running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 pick. The Seahawks are said to release RB Julius Jones. This hurts Justin Forsett's value and we'll look at how their running game looks in two weeks when they play the Bears.

Week 3: What I Learned From Sunday

We're three weeks in and we're starting to get an idea of how things will develop from here on out. This is also around the time where I learn how good my predictions were (or how horribly wrong I was). With that being said, here's what I learned from the third Sunday of the year.

1. There were more unexpected big scorers this week. Last week, I mentioned how there will always be the unexpected big scorer. While nobody broke 40 points this week, that isn't to say that there weren't any surprises. For that, I want to look at the wide receivers that scored in the top 5 this week. They were, in order, Anquan Boldin (32), Austin Collie (29), Lance Moore (26), Roy Williams (23), Brandon Lloyd (22), Brandon Marshall (22), and Mike Wallace (22). What do I take away from this? For starters, out of these seven players, only two are the #1 receivers on their team (Boldin and Marshall). Interestingly, they were both offseason acquisitions. Also, of those seven, only three have what I would call top tier QBs throwing them the ball, in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo. Say what you want about Romo but I view him as a top tier QB.
   
   Now, the biggest question on fantasy owners' minds is, "Which of these performances are for real and which are one time things?" Well, I want to label Boldin and Marshall as those most likely to repeat these types of games. They're the top receivers on their offenses. The players I would say not to bother with are Moore, Lloyd, and Williams. Not that they don't have the talent, but I just think that they are too low on the pecking order to string together any sort of fantasy consistency. Which brings me to my last point.
   
   I think that Collie and Wallace are for real and that their performances on Sunday are the most impressive of the bunch. Each are young players in their 2nd year and each have dynamic QBs throwing them the ball (even though Roethlisberger isn't back yet). And each have proven veterans lining up opposite them at the line (Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne, for those of you who didn't know). But which receiver will ultimately be more consistent out of Collie and Wallace? If I had to choose, I think I'd go with Collie. Wallace might end up with better numbers but that's because he's a deep threat. He was only targeted 4 times on Sunday (granted, he caught three of them for 100 and 2 TDs) but Collie was targeted 16 times! The only player with more targets this week was Brandon Marshall. So, in summary, both are for real. I'd probably start each one every week from here on out until they show otherwise.
   
   
2. What is up with the San Francisco 49ers? This is a team that I had at 13-3 in the preseason. Well, I'm not wrong yet. All they need to do is win out. But a week after putting up a great fight against the New Orleans Saints, they go to Kansas City and get embarrassed. If not for a meaningless last second TD, they would have lost 31-3. Which would have meant that in games against the Chiefs and Seahawks (who had a combined 9-23 last year), the 49ers would be outscored 62-9. It is most certainly time to panic in San Francisco.
   
   It's easy to call San Francisco the biggest disappointment so far this year. Who else has been disappointing? Another California team, the San Diego Chargers. They were beaten by Seattle 27-20, despite outgaining the Seahawks 518-271. Both of their losses have come against, guess who, the Chiefs and Seahawks. Is it time to panic in San Diego? Not quite, but I would keep my finger close to the button.
   
   
3. Alright, let's give some love to the big surprises of the year. I've already discussed them above but certainly the Chiefs and Seahawks top the list. I'm still not convinced by the Chiefs but this certainly helped them in my book. Cassel actually didn't look awful, for a change, and they are one of two 3-0 teams (the other being Pittsburgh). However, I want to see the Chiefs win a meaningful game on the road before I jump onboard.
   
   The Seahawks are a weird team this year. They look great against San Francisco, get thumped by Denver, and then play a great half against San Diego followed by an unimpressive half against San Diego. So which team are they? I say...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with the bad one. And this is why. As Philip Rivers and the Chargers got rolling in the second half yesterday, who bailed out the Seahawks? It wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. It wasn't Justin Forsett. It wasn't the defense. It wasn't even the coaching. It was Leon Washington's two kick return TDs. If you're relying on your kick returner to singlehandedly get you points, you won't win many games. Also, this was the first game that I saw the Seahawks give Forsett the carries he deserves. He's easily the best back they have but has been inexplicably forced to share carries with Julius Jones and Washington. But, today, he was given 17 of the team's 21 carries (Hasselbeck had 3, Washington had 1). I told you to hold onto him, fantasy owners.
   
   
4. Fantasy MVP...Kyle Orton? Yep, believe it or not, Orton has been electric so far this year. He went into this game as the 8th best QB and then threw for 476 yards. The worrying bit is that he only had 1 TD but I think that's more of a product of Denver's less than stellar receivers than Orton's inefficiencies. With bye weeks starting up next week, he's a more than capable fill in and could even turn out to be a solid fantasy starter. In fact, he's currently the 4th fantasy QB (granted, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have yet to play). Still, don't sleep on the Orton.
   
   
5. The fearsome Ravens defense versus Peyton Hillis. Advantage, Hillis. Yep, that's right. The same Ravens defense who rarely allows a 100 yard rusher gave up 144 yards and a TD to Hillis, who was filling in for injured starter Jerome Harrison. I think he made a pretty good case to get the starting job, don't you? Did you know that he's scored a rushing TD in three straight games? Do you know what other running backs have done that this year? That's right. None.
   
   
6. It was meant to be a shootout in Houston. Instead, it was just the Cowboys shooting. Tony Romo looked pretty good, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Matt Schaub...didn't, as he went for 241, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Expect Romo to continue to put up good numbers and, also, expect Schaub's stats to go up. This was an off day for just about everyone on the Texans.
   
   
7. I don't normally talk about kickers here but two kickers missed relatively easy game winners today. First, and ugliest, was New Orleans' Garrett Hartley. He's missed 3/7 on the year so far and even the ones that he's made haven't been pretty. And, after he missed a 29 yarder in overtime today, I'd be surprised if he has a job for much longer. The Saints have reportedly been looking at John Carney. So we'll see what happens there.
   
   In other news, we have Sebastian Janikowski, who is known for being scary looking and having a monster leg. Fun fact: he was also drafted in the 1st round back in 2000. Janikowski has now missed field goals in all three games this year, including a 3/6 effort today, culminating in a 32 yard miss that would've won the game. Instead, he pushed it left and the Cardinals escaped with a win. Sad for Raiders fans, yes, especially after he made a 54 yarder in the 1st quarter. But, as Oakland RB Darren McFadden said, "If he kicked that ball 100 times, he's going to make 99 of them. It just so happened that he missed that one." Basically, even if he has the talent, I wouldn't want to be relying on Janikowski as my fantasy kicker. Or Hartley, for that matter.
   
   
8. Nice performances by 3rd year QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who has been criticized for not performing well on the road, went into New Orleans and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs while throwing for 228 and 2 TDs. His numbers weren't spectacular but he didn't commit any turnovers which is a big help when you play a good team like the Saints. But, even with this performance, I'm not about ready to call Ryan a fantasy starter.
   
   Flacco, on the other hand, could be. A week after the worst performance of his career, Flacco got to play around with new target Anquan Boldin, going on to throw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with Boldin catching 142 of those yards and all of the TDs. Next, Flacco gets a tough Steelers defense. I'd be nervous about starting him for that game but you can do a whole lot worse. I have Flacco as a top 10 QB from this point onward.
   
   And, last but not least, Chad Henne. Last week, I said it was time to push the panic button and drop Henne. Not so fast, everybody! This was the Henne that we thought was going to be a sleeper fantasy QB. 363 and 2 TDs against a good Jets pass defense (okay, they were missing Revis) but he looked good. If you dropped him, sorry and try and pick him back up. If you're still holding onto him, well, you're smarter than me.

I'm in the situation on one of my teams where I have a heavy reliance on the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys, arguably the three most disappointing teams so far this year. I think that both the Cowboys and Chargers can right the ship. 49ers...I dunno. But, that's all for today. The Packers visit the Bears on Monday night in what looks to be a great divisional battle. Rodgers vs. Cutler. Can somebody say shootout?

Week 2: What I Learned From Sunday

The second Sunday of the year has wrapped up. And, as with every week, there were plenty of surprises and disappointments. Here's what I took away from the Sunday #2.

1. I think one unexpected player will score 40+ points each week. Last week we had Arian Foster go for 41, this week it was Jahvid Best for 40. 3 TDs and 232 total yards normally makes for a good game. And if you look here in my Game By Game Breakdown, I said that I would sit Jahvid Best. Which I did in the leagues where I had him. Ummm, mulligan? I don't think he's still going to rely on TDs for points. He looked good against a good Eagles defense. I was wrong for that one. Actually, let's see how I did for the rest of those predictions.
   
   
2. Just how great were my Great Expecations? Let's see. I nailed Rivers, Ryan, and Vick. 3/3. As for the running backs, 2/3 had good but not great games. Barber and Jones let me down though. Wes Welker, Donald Driver, and Dez Bryant all scored TDs (the last one was a punt return though. I'll take it) but Hines Ward was the victim of a terrible passing performance by the Steelers, which was partly due to Dennis Dixon getting hurt. Still, I'll take 3/4. As for tight ends, Carlson had a decent game but nothing that really separated him from the pack. Cooley, on the other hand, had 64 yards and at TD. I'll call that 1/2. So, to recap, I was 9/12 on my Great Expecations. I'm pleased with that.
   
   
3. My Do Not Want list was a also pretty successful. Carson Palmer did not set the world on fire against Baltimore. That much I got right. Jay Cutler against Dallas? Okay, 277 yds and 3 TDs aren't that good. Fine, they are. 1/2. Forte didn't look that good on the ground but it was his receiving that set him apart. Got that one wrong. Forsett and Jones weren't spectacular in their games either. 8 for 44 and 22 for 83 respectively. I'd like to think I got those two right. And Benson only had 78 yards on 23 carries. I'll say 3/4 on RBs. Nicks only had 2 catches for 38 yards but one of them did go for a TD. But both of those catches were in garbage time. I'd say I got him right. And Moss only had 2 for 38 and a TD. Yes, that TD catch was pretty but I think I got that one right too. Naanee had 1 catch for 14 yards. Nailed it! And Wallace? He had 2 for 25 and actually led the team in receiving. Got that one too. Wow, I was 4/4 with receivers! And, of course, the tight end. Olsen made me look stupid with his 39 yard TD catch. But, I would like to point out that it wound up being his only catch. Just saying. I'll award myself half a point for that. So I finished 8.5/11. For an overall total of 17.5/23. 76% right. That's pretty solid, I'd say.
   
   
4. Damn those injuries. There were some big names getting hurt this week and they likely hurt your fantasy teams if you were unlucky enough to have them starting. I, for one, had both Michael Turner and Ryan Mathews starting in one of my leagues and I was very pleased to see them both getting off to good starts. And then...they're gone. Especially when you're playing against the likes of AP and Tim Hightower. Unfortunate, yes. But they weren't the only two names to go down. Jason Witten became the latest casualty of the concussion. He'll need to pass various tests before he is allowed to play again. Andre Johnson scared owners when he departed for around a whole quarter against the Redskins. But he went on to catch 12 for 158 and a TD. Much better than last week's 3 for 33. And Steeler's quarterback Dennis Dixon left in the 2nd quarter after throwing for 18 yards and a fumble. While most aren't starting Dixon but it will affect the fantasy stocks of Hines Ward and Mike Wallace.
   
   
5. Why are the top RBs consistently nobodies? Last week, it was Arian Foster, this week it was Jahvid Best. And Jason Snelling and Mike Tolbert were in the top 5 in running back points! Many of you remember Snelling from last year as "The Guy Who Was Not Michael Turner." And Mike Tolbert...I think he's a fullback. Wikipedia says so, at least. And he had 95 total yards and 2 TDs. Who will be the unexpected performer next week? I'm guessing John Kuhn in GB.
   
   
6. Joe Flacco cannot solve the Bengals. In three career starts versus Cincinnati, Flacco has 1 TD and 8 INTs. And I must say, I was disgusted to hear countless Ravens fans bitching and moaning after this week to the tunes of, "Flacco can't throw at all. Why is he our quarterback?" and "He's the second coming of Boller!" To those of you out there who fell into this crowd, give it a rest. What are you, Eagles fans? Also, the Ravens have yet to allow a TD this year, the only team to do so.
   
   
7. The battle of the Manning brothers wasn't much of a battle. Again. Peyton outperformed the younger Eli by going 20/26 for 255 yards and 3 TDs to Eli's 13/24 for 161 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 2 fumbles lost. Peyton looks like he'll be in the MVP running again. Eli...you be the judge.
   
   
8. The best looking team of the week was, in my opinion, the Bears. Jay Cutler looked like the quarterback the Bears wanted when they traded for him. And, most importantly, he did not commit a turnover. If he can keep up that performance, watch out. The Bears could be dangerous. But, if you're a Jay Cutler owner, now may be the time to sell high.
   
   
9. I think I may just bench any running back playing the Steelers. In the past two weeks, the Steelers defense has held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson, two of the best running backs in the game, to 19 carries for 42 yards and 16 carries for 32 yards and a fumble, respectively. Next week, they have Tampa Bay and Cadillac Williams. I know who I'm benching...

Okay, that's a wrap. The Saints visit the 49ers on Monday night. Gore owners are hoping for a big game out of him but Brees owners are hoping he can pick apart the 49ers secondary. I actually called San Francisco to win this one in the preseason. I thought long and hard about changing it but, in the end, I didn't. I actually had the same quandary with the Jets and Patriots game today. In the preseason, I called the Jets but changed it to the Pats this week. I'm not gonna do that again and just go with my instincts from the preseason. Alright, I'm out. Hope you all won your matchups (and if I caused you to lose them, then find peace in the fact that I also caused myself to lose mine).

Week 1: What I Learned From Sunday

Well, Sunday's games have all wrapped up. And I learned a lot from those games, both from a fantasy perspective and a real world perspective.

1. I want nothing to do with Jason Campell.
   Seriously. Absolutely nothing. He was 22/37 today for 180 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick but he also fumbled twice, losing one. Yes, he was better than JaMarcus Russell but, seriously, who isn't? Campbell grabbed up some garbage time yards which his fantasy owners appreciate. But if you're a fantasy owner and you're starting Jason Campbell in Week 1 then you:
   a) Are a blood relative of Jason Campbell
   b) Do not know how to play fantasy football
   c) Are Al Davis
   Or some combination of the three. My suggestion: sever all ties with Jason Campbell, if you haven't done so already.
   
   
2. Michael Vick vs. Kevin Kolb.
   Those were some interesting post game comments from Michael "Who Let the Dogs Out" Vick. To paraphrase, Vick said something along the lines of "If I had been out there for all four quarters, we might not have lost." But Reid maintained that Kolb was the starter as long as he was healthy. But Vick looked like the Vick of old and if Kolb isn't playing next week because of his concussion, Vick could be a valuable fill in starter for fantasy.
   
   
3. Great Expectations Revisited.
   Looking back at my predictions in my Great Expecations post, I'm proud to say that I was pretty accurate. I nailed Jay Cutler and Chris Johnson to have great weeks, Kyle Orton ended up having good but not great numbers (just as I said he would), Cadillac Williams got 9 fantasy points (which was better than Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Michael Turner, Joseph Addai, and Jerome Harrison, to name a few), and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had almost identical yardage games with Brown grabbing the TD. I was also right on Tony Gonzalez being a bad play against Pittsburgh (2 catches for 35 yards) but he'll be fine this year.
   
   Alright, here's where I was kinda wrong. Johnny Knox was good but not great against Detroit but Cutler looked to him seven times so I still think his numbers will improve. Santana Moss was good but not great against Dallas (6 catches for 77 yards) but McNabb looked to him early and often. Expect a pretty good year from the veteran. Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow were each targeted six times and reeled in four catches for 47 and 32 yards respectively but each has a good quarterback throwing them the ball (I thought Josh Freeman particularly looked good in a win over Cleveland) and should still put up good numbers this year. No need to panic.
   
   And now, where I was really wrong. Michael Crabtree had two catches for 18 yards on a whopping 8 targets. This was on a day where the entire 49ers team looked out of sync against Seattle (Seattle?! Are you kidding me?). The running game could not get going, Alex Smith looked like his old terrible self, and even the defense looked bad. I'm not saying you need to be worried but, from someone who had San Francisco going 13-3 and making a deep playoff run, I'm worried. Derek Anderson also played a good game in St. Louis this year. Sure, it was against St. Louis but he threw for 297 yards with 1 TD and, most importantly, no turnovers. But I still wouldn't start him anytime soon.
   
   Last but not least is a call which, on paper, looks wrong but I still believe I got right: Rashard Mendenhall would not do well against Atlanta. Prior to his 50 yard game winning TD scamper in OT, Mendenhall had 21 carries for 70 yards. 3.4 ypc. Not spectacular. But that final run bumped him up to 5th best running back of the week and had me shaking my fist in annoyance that he would look to prove me wrong. But I still don't like him for where he was drafted.
   
   
4. Arian Foster is Legit.
   I admit that I was not one of those who was aboard the Arian Foster bandwagon at the beginning of the year. I thought he was a back that would put up solid numbers based on sheer bulk of carries and had him listed at 24th among RBs, just between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. But on a day where Matt Schaub threw for barely over 100 yards, Foster placed the Texans squarely on his back and ran for a team record 231 yards and added 3 TDs, a 41 point fantasy effort. In one of my leagues, I benched him in favor of Cedric Benson (9 fantasy points) and Knowshon Moreno (12 fantasy points). I won't make that mistake again. For those of you who are lucky enough to have him on your roster, congrats on that 7th round steal. You've got a top RB in your hands.
   
   
5. Paging San Francisco...
   Can somebody please tell the San Francisco 49ers that the season has started? Because I don't think they showed up for Week 1. They were dismantled by Seattle 31-6, a team that ditched their top WR and one of their best CBs during the preseason. SF looked terrible for pretty much the entire game and this is where I think it went awry.
   
   On SF's first drive, they have first and goal from the 8. Alex Smith completes a TD pass to Josh Morgan which is challenged and then overturned. They proceed to then run for 2 yards with Frank Gore and then throw him another 1 yard pass. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: From the Seattle 15, Smith throws incomplete to Crabtree, completes 9 yard pass to Gore, and Gore runs for no gain. Result: Failed 4th down conversion as Smith throws incomplete to Moran Norris.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: 1st and goal from the 9. Smith completes to Delanie Walker for 6 yards, Gore runs for 1 yard, Norris runs for 1 yard. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle then goes on to drive for a TD, intercept Alex Smith, score a TD on the ensuing drive, make SF go 3 and out before going in for halftime. At this point, 14-3 Seattle. After the half, Seattle gets a pick 6, forces a 3 and out, and scores a TD on the next ensuing drive. Now, it's 28-6. After SF's first two FGs, Frank Gore, hands down, the best player on the 49ers, gained only 19 total yards on 8 touches. Ummm...guys? Give him the ball? Maybe???
   
   
6. I Think Wes Welker is Fine.
   Who had an ACL injury? Welker only went caught 8 balls for 64 yards and 2 TDs in his first regular season game since tearing his ACL just before the playoffs last year. I managed to grab Welker late in a lot of my leagues (in one, with the last pick of the 7th round) as a borderline #2/#3 receiver. He's currently the 5th best WR. The time to buy low has passed. If you grabbed him, pat yourself on the back.
   
   
7. Hakeem Nicks is the Top Fantasy Receiver?
   If I went to a room filled with the nation's top fantasy football experts and said, "Raise your hand if you think Hakeem Nicks will be the top fantasy receiver in Week 1," I would have been looking at a bunch of filled pockets. But Nicks managed to rack up four catches for 75 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday. Can he keep up the pace? No, of course not. But if there was ever a time to sell high, it's now. I'm not saying trade Nicks, but if you can get a good deal for him, now's the time to pull the trigger.
   
   
8. Time for the Cowboys to Snag a New Right Tackle?
   I watched Sunday Night's Cowboys at Redskins game and a couple of things stood out at me.
   a) Donovan McNabb looked like the Donovan of old. If you're desperate for a fantasy QB, you could do a whole lot worse.
   b) Tony Romo looked hesitant, but smart. Romo finished with a stat line of 31/47 for 282 and 1 TD but didn't seem to make many bad throws (okay, there were two on that final drive but Washington's secondary have arms all the way down to their fingers) and made all the right decisions. Except on...
   c) Whoever on Dallas called that play at the end of the first half might be legally retarded. For those of you who didn't see it, here's the gist. Washington is up 3-0 with about 4 seconds left before halftime. Dallas is on their own 36 and it's 1st and 20. Romo drops back, steps up in the pocket and throws almost perfectly sideways to Tashard Choice, who is standing at the 37. With about 9 defenders between him and the endzone, the logical choice is to either go down or run out of bounds. Instead, he decides he's going to try and score and runs into 3 Redskins, including DeAngelo Hall, who strips the ball and runs untouched for a TD. It was pants-on-head retarded and is in the running for bonehead play of the year. That and, of course...
   c) Alex Barron, penalty king of the NFL. The Cowboys acquired him from St. Louis in the offseason for linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Now, Cowboys fans are wanting a trade back. Trailing by 6 in the closing minutes, Romo lead the Cowboys down the field and, with about four seconds left on the clock, stepped up in the pocket and fired to a wide open Roy Williams in the end zone. And, unbelievably, that sentence does not end with "and the ball is dropped by Williams!" Instead, it ended with a catch and the potential winning touchdown. Until...."Holding. Number 71 offense." And since the penalty occurred as time expired, the down could not be replayed. End. Of. Game. I'll be surprised if Barron is starting next time the Cowboys take the field. It's a shame, because that would have given Romo a more productive fantasy day and overshadowed a 10 catch, 146 yard, 1 TD effort from Miles Austin, who is proving that his new contract is money well spent.
   
   
9. Unfamiliar Names in the Week's Top 10 WRs.
   The current Top 10 WR feature some familiar faces (Chad Ochocinco, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith O.G.) but also has some newbies. Austin Collie actually outperformed Reggie Wayne (19 points to 15), just as ESPN's Matthew Berry predicted he would and would be a good pickup for teams in need of a WR. Remember, he caught 7 TDs last year. Sure, Berry said it would be Pierre Garcon but his theory that Reggie Wayne would not be the Colts' top receiver still is sound. Also up there is Tennessee's Nate Washington, who scored on a deep pass from Vince Young, and Arizona's Steve Breaston, who caught 7 passes for 132 yards. Larry Fitzgerald only caught 3. Now, some will see this as, "Hey, look who Derek Anderson's favorite target is! Steve Breaston!" But don't be fooled. Breaston was targeted 7 times, Fitzgerald 15. Expect Fitz's numbers to increase and Breaston's to drop.

Alright guys, that just about does it. Be sure to keep an eye open later in the week for Week 2's Great Expectations, Do Not Want!, and a game by game breakdown of players to start and who to bench. And also be on the lookout for Tim's first edition of Power Rankings and some more predictions.