"I'm probably too high on San Francisco this year but I don't care. I think this is the year they put it all together."
Oops. Well, I was right, in a sense. I was too high on San Francisco. Waaaay too high. I had them pegged at 13-3, Tim at 10-6. Both of us had them finishing 1st in the division. Am I ready to go back on my word? No! I still think they win the division! You heard me. And it's not out of faith in San Francisco but a complete lack of faith in everybody else in the division. Arizona leads the division at 3-2 and I actually think they're the worst team. So far, they've been outscored by 50 points. How are they over .500?! Seattle is going to be horribly inconsistent for the rest of the year and they haven't actually played that well this year. And St. Louis actually looks like the best bet to unseat San Francisco as the best team. But I don't think they will. I'm still picking San Francisco to win the NFC West!
Fun Fact: I've picked SF to win every game this year. I've been wrong each time.
Alright, here's what I learned from Week 5.
1. Thank you, thank you, thank you Malcom Floyd! All preseason, I was saying how high I was on Malcom Floyd. I have him in practically all of my leagues, and I was often taking him in late rounds, simply because people had no idea who he was. But Floyd has been fantastic this year, and is now the #4 wide receiver, thanks to his 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD game against Oakland. I don't think he slows down. But the best part? Oakland has probably the best pass defense he's faced all year. Someone asked me if Floyd is a sell high? No, he's for real.
2. Actually, who saw these top 4 WRs coming? In order, these are the top four scoring wide receivers, in order. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, Austin Collie, Malcom Floyd. Their average rounds drafter? 8th, undrafted, 13th, 9th. Ride the fantasy studs! I think they keep it up. If anybody were to fall out of this group, it would probably be Collie, simply because there are too many other targets in that Colts offense.
3. Another week, another score. Non-QBs who have scored in every week: Peyton Hillis, Antonio Gates. That's it. Hillis didn't have a rushing TD this week but had a nifty catch and made it in for the score. And Gates...what hasn't been said about him? He's a beast. Plain and simple. To put this in perspective, if I had Gates and somebody were to offer me Andre Johnson for him, at this point in the year, I don't think I could accept that deal. He's been that good.
4. God damn it, those injuries! Big fantasy injuries this week. Mark Clayton, who was making a case for Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, is now done for the year. Jermichael Finley, one of the top tight ends in the league, has a torn meniscus and is expected to be out for anywhere from 8 weeks to the whole season (I had him in a bunch of leagues. Damn it!). Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in garbage time last week (why was he on the field???) and is currently listed as questionable for this week's game against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers got hit and received a concussion on the Packers' last offensive play. He's questionable as well.
5. I've been calling for Ryan Mathews to have a big week for the past two weeks. He looked healthy last week and had 9 carries for 59 yards (9 carries for 55 and a TD the week before) and Mike Tolbert looked awful. 12 carries for 11 yards and a goal line fumble. This week is the week of Mathews (I will say that until it happens)!
6. Greg Jennings vs. Donald Driver. Look at the numbers. Driver has 25 catches for 376 yards and 3 TDs on 34 targets while Jennings has 14 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs on 31 targets. Driver has the better numbers. Driver is the better fantasy play. And, with Finley now out for a significant period of time, expect Driver to get more of his targets. If you can sell high on Jennings, I'd say do it.
7. Here's another one: Chad Ochocinco vs. Terrell Owens. Their numbers: Owens has 31 catches for 476 yards and 2 TDs on 61 targets. Ochocinco has 26 catches for 316 yards and 1 TD on 44 targets. I'm picking Owens. Ocho actually has one more point than Greg Jennings.
8. Ben Roethlisberger comes back this week. Hide your women! With the return of Big Ben, the entire Steelers offense will get a boost and, as a result, so will fantasy players. Mike Wallace is the one who actually gets the biggest boost since he can now get deep balls. I also think Heath Miller's stock rises considerably. Ben looks to him a lot and, if you just lost Jermichael Finley, Miller could be a good fill in.
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