Week 5: Great Expectations

I'm going to use this space to vent some of my fantasy frustration that I built up in the past week. In one of my main leagues, a fairly deep 10 team league, that starts a QB, two RBs, one RB/WR flex, three WRs, a TE, D/ST, and K, I was debating between two spots: one was my flex spot and the other was my 3rd wide receiver.

For a flex, I was trying to decide between either Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Justin Forsett. I wound up going with Mathews because he was said to be healthy and, in theory, the starter, which pushed him ahead of Tolbert on the depth chart, and that he had the potential for a bigger game against a terrible Arizona defense. Mathews ended up having a mediocre game (12 points), which was better than Forsett (7 points) but worse than Tolbert (16). I still think I made the right call and think that Mathews ends up exceeding expectations this week (see below).

And, in the other spot, I had to choose between Terrell Owens and Johnny Knox. Owens had been consistent but unspectacular through three weeks, posting games of 5, 5, and 4 points. Knox, on the other hand, had been seeming to develop good chemistry with Jay Cutler and had games of 5, 8, and 9 points. I looked at the numbers and decided to go with Knox. And, naturally, Cutler gets hurt and helps get Knox his worst game of the year with 2 points. Owens, meanwhile, goes bonkers for 28 points, his best game since Week 11 of 2007 (8 catches, 173 yards, 4 TDs). I would go on to lose my fantasy game by 5 points. Okay, venting over. Here's who I think Exceeds Expectations this week.

Eli Manning (at Houston)

Houston's secondary is bad. It's so bad, it should be called a tertiary. It's so bad, I think that myself and a group of my friends could play against them and we could wind up as a fantasy flex play. This is a secondary that is 31st in terms of defense of fantasy quarterbacks. Last week, Bruce Gradkowski had a 14 point game against them. Teams have thrown at least 30 times against them every game this year, which means that teams know their weakness. Interestingly, Dallas was the team that threw the least. How often will you see that happening? Anyway, Eli plays Houston this week. Eli is better than Bruce Gradkowski. Eli has alternated his good games with bad ones. Eli had a bad one last week. Eli's due. Eli's a top 10 QB this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Jacksonville)

In a mood to gamble? Why not try Fitz? Jacksonville is dead last in terms of defense against fantasy QBs, allowing an average of almost 22 ppg to the QB. Fitz has 2 TDs in each of the past two weeks, including last week against a very good Jets secondary. Fitz has the potential for a decent fantasy day in what could wind up being the ugliest game of the weekend.

Joe Flacco (vs. Denver)

Another QB playing a lower tier fantasy QB defense. The Broncos rank 30th against fantasy QBs and Flacco looked very good against the Steelers last week. He should be a top 10 option this week.

Peyton Hillis (vs. Atlanta)

Keeping that streak alive, Hillis scored another TD last week, giving him four on the year, one in each game. He's the guy to own on the Browns (the only one) and, most importantly, is the only running back getting touches. He's a must start. That's right, a must start. And, who knows, might wind up being a top 10 back by the end of the year. Wow, who would've thought that out of that Arkansas backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis that it would be Hillis who was the most valuable fantasy player?

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Indianapolis)

Now, if I actually had to choose, I think I'd end up starting Jones over Charles. Charles has more upside but, in three games, Jones has 52 carries to Charles' 34. I don't know why he's getting so many more, but he is and we need to accept that. But note that Charles is averaging 7 ypc to Jones' 4.2. I think both are capable of being fantasy starters but I have Jones over Charles. In the long run, however, I think Charles overtakes Jones. For now, however, you have to play the cards you're dealt. The Colts are 26th against fantasy running backs so feel free to start each of them.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at Oakland)

They're playing Oakland. Need I say more?

Beanie Wells (vs. New Orleans)

Last week, Wells complained about not getting enough carries (he had 5 for 19 yards) and his lack of involvement in the offense. With the team's switch to Max Hall at QB, I think this winds up being the game where they rely on the running game the most. I'm expecting a good game from Beanie (or at least a lot of carries).

Terrell Owens (vs. Tampa Bay)

Fun fact: T.O. has the second most targets of any wide receiver (after Roddy White). And, thanks to last week's performance, is 4th in yards among wide receivers. He had a long TD last year against Atlanta and I expect him to burn a Tampa corner deep at one point or another this week. Even if he doesn't he gets more targets than he probably should and, at this point, is a potential fantasy starter.

Donald Driver (at Washington)

He has TDs in three out of four games this year and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With Green Bay's run game being, as ESPN's Matthew Berry put it, Aaron Rodgers bootlegs and quick screens, Driver should be serviceable for the rest of the year as a fantasy starter. There are simply too many weapons on that offense for defenses to contain. And Driver has been reaping the benefits.

Hakeem Nicks (at Houston)

Read what I said about Eli Manning. And who do you think he's gonna be throwing to?

Percy Harvin (at New York Jets)

Newly acquired Randy Moss lets Harvin go back to the position he is best suited for: slot receiver. He'll be like Wes Welker was with the Patriots when Moss was there. I wouldn't go and start him this week but I would definitely pick him up if I could or buy low if someone is willing to part with him. I expect him to have a good rest of the season.

Marques Colston (at Arizona)

Dammit, I said it last week and I'll say it again! He's gotta break out one of these weeks!

Dez Bryant and Roy Williams (vs. Tennessee)

Kyle Orton just proved that you can throw all over Tennessee. And did you know that Bryant and Williams each have the same amount of targets? That's right, 20 each. Bryant leads in receptions but Williams leads in yards and TDs. Yes, both take a backseat to Austin, but each have produced so far this year. You can do much worse.

Santonio Holmes (vs. Minnesota)

I don't know, call it a gut feeling, but I think that Sanchez winds up looking for him a lot. I wouldn't start him this week but keep an eye on him and see how he does.

Greg Olsen (at Carolina)

Jay Cutler isn't starting and I have a feeling that he winds up being Todd Collins' security blanket and gets a lot of checkdowns. Again, just a gut feeling.

Dustin Keller (vs. Minnesota)

5 TDs in three weeks. Yeah, I'm a believer. I'd say he's a must start tight end.

Brent Celek (at San Francisco)

Kevin Kolb is starting again and, if you watched the game last week, you noticed that he seemed to check down to his tight ends and running backs on just about every single play. And, when they got to the red zone, who did he look for? Yep. Celek.

I've learned from my mistake last week and am starting T.O. Watch Knox go off with Collins under center...