Week 4: Great Expectations

This would've been up earlier if it wasn't for me getting swamped with homework this week. Anyway, I was almost completely wrong with my predictions from last week, getting only Darren McFadden and Tony Romo right. Not a good week. 2/10. Anyway, here are the players that I think wind up exceeding expectations for week 4. With four teams on a bye (Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, and Buccaneers), some of you might be looking for fill in starters. Hopefully, this helps.

Chad Henne (vs. New England)

Last week, Henne showed us why many had him projected as a big sleeper for 2010. He threw for 363 yards and 2 TDs against a very capable Jets pass defense (albeit, without Darrelle Revis) on his way to a 20 fantasy point game. This week, he draws the Patriots, who are 26th in terms of opposing quarterback fantasy points. They've given up 19, 22, and 14 points in the first three weeks of the year. And I don't see anybody in that secondary who can match up with Brandon Marshall. If you have Romo and are looking for a substitute, you could do a whole lot worse than Henne.

Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler is the 5th fantasy QB this year and is playing the Giants, who are 10th against opposing QBs in fantasy points. But those stats about the Giants D are kinda misleading. In week 1, they played Carolina and, let's face it, Carolina's QB situation is in shambles. Next, they faced Peyton Manning and got lit up. In week 3, they played against Vince Young, who only needed to throw it 16 times in a win. I see Cutler as being closer to Manning than Young or Moore/Clausen and the Giants looked terrible last week. I don't see them getting much better. Cutler looks good to go.

Michael Vick (vs. Washington)

Comeback player of the year? If you were lucky enough to nab the #2 fantasy quarterback in free agency (or if you drafted him, more power to you), ride the train as long as you can. He's been phenomenal this year and now draws the Redskins' 26th ranked fantasy QB defense. Vick's a must start from here on out. Woof.

Arian Foster (at Oakland)

After exploding for 41 points in week 1, Foster has managed only 12 and 10 points in weeks 2 and 3. I say only because, well, he set the bar really high with his week 1 performance. Now he faces an Oakland defense that has given up an average of 21 ppg to fantasy running backs. Yeah, I'd say start him.

Darren McFadden (vs. Houston)

I had him on this list last week and I'll put him here again. He's finally a feature back this year! And he's looked the part too. If Oakland wants to have any shot against the Texans, they're gonna need to use this guy. He's the biggest playmaker on the team and I'd be shocked if Houston gets beat through the air by Bruce Gradkowski. I'd say McFadden's just about a must start at this point. Of course, that could change at the drop of a hat (or an Al Davis).

Justin Forsett (at St. Louis)

If you are a Forsett owner and saw his stats from last week, you probably were breathing a sigh of relief. He finally got all of the carries and Pete Carroll stopped using Julius Jones and let Leon Washington do his kick returns. Now he gets St. Louis which, if you remember the rule from last year, "If you're player is going up against St. Louis, you start him." Yes, I'm a bit hesitant because I want to see him in the feature back role for two weeks in a row but, again, with bye weeks, go right ahead.

Ryan Mathews (vs. Arizona)

He was inactive last week with an ankle injury but all signs point to go for this week. Arizona is 29th against fantasy running backs and Mathews is better than your average running back. Just make sure he's active. He should be, but just be positive.

Mark Clayton (vs. Seattle)

Who would've guessed that St. Louis was just what Marky Mark needed? Through three games, he's the 13 best receiver in fantasy. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. Bradford looks to him early and often and Clayton catches about two thirds of the passes thrown his way. Seattle allows the 25th most points to fantasy receivers and Clayton's performance through three games makes him a solid #2 receiver.

Johnny Knox (at New York Giants)

I mentioned Jay Cutler above and Knox is his preferred target. He's a deep threat and has seen his numbers improve each game this year. I think he finds the end zone this week on a deep ball. He's due.

Kevin Walter (at Oakland)

Three receivers have scored in every game this year. They are Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Walter, the numbers 1, 5, and 7 fantasy receivers respectively. I expect Nnamdi Asomugha to be on Andre Johnson this week and for Walter to get open and extend his streak to four games.

Jeremy Maclin (vs. Washington)

He's got Kevin Walter numbers but better. And you already know what I think about Vick. Start him.

Marques Colston (vs. Carolina)

He's gotta break out one of these weeks, right? Right???

Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

Finley is the fourth tight end in fantasy and has yet to score a TD. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? Tight ends don't get yards, they get TDs! But Finley, who has been targeted 21 times, has caught 17 of them, for an 81% completion percentage. He's gotta find the end zone one of these weeks and, when he does, his numbers will be crazy. Start him until further notice.

Jeremy Shockey (vs. Carolina)

He had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD last week and looked like the tight end the Saints wanted when they acquired him. Carolina doesn't give up that many points to tight ends but I think Shockey does well this week. With Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Visanthe Shiancoe on a bye this week, Shockey's a more than capable fill in.

I hope to get my Do Not Want list up tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your fantasies.