Week 1: Power Rankings

Continuing a trend I started last season, I will be putting together a set of power rankings all season. This basically means that I assign seemingly arbitrary ranks (1-32) for each team, which don’t necessarily go by standings or actual records. It’s difficult to get much out of just having the stats from Week One, so don’t pay too much attention to wins/losses as we move out of the top 6 or so, 16 teams had to lose this week. Division standings are also somewhat deceptive, but were gained through the NFL’s website.

Sorry it’s up on gameday, this literally took about 15 hours of work to compose, with all the stat-compiling.

So, here’s the format:

Rank|Last Week’s Rank (LW)|Team Name|Record|Divisional Standing|Comments

Hopefully, by Week Five or so, I’ll be uploading a more interactive version of the power rankings, but until then, bear with me. Last note: there is no LW column this week. Here we go!

1 New Orleans Saints (1-0) 1^st NFCS

The Saints looked solid enough in their opener last Thursday. Their stats weren’t amazing, but Drew Brees looked on form, and the defense was able to prevent either QB Brett Favre or RB Adrian Peterson from getting much done.

Key Stat: 0-2 FG, Garrett Hartley missed both attempts (46, 32) and in close games like this, you have to be able to rely on your kicker, so expect Hartley to come back strong or else have an ad out in the newspaper.

2 New England Patriots (1-0) 2^nd AFCE

Wow. The Patriots of 2010 look like the Patriots of the early 2000s, and came to play hard with the Bengals. They made the former AFC North champs look like amateurs as Tom Brady gashed Cincy’s secondary for over 250 yards and 3 scores. However, New England’s defense surrendered the 3^rd-most yardage in the NFL.

Key Stat: Wes Welker’s 8 grabs for 64 yards and 2 TDs show that his knee is feeling great, which is terrific news for Tom Brady.

3 Green Bay Packers (1-0) 2^nd NFCN

Losing Ryan Grant for the season is going to hurt, but they have an incredible offense and backup Brandon Jackson could be a sleeper for a great year, fantasy owners. The stats don’t show the talent (17^th-overall offense, 18^th-overall defense), but the talent is present and overwhelming in opposing war rooms during planning sessions.

Key Stat: 5 Sacks, including 2.0 by Clay Matthews shows dedication to the pass-rush to help an injured defensive backfield.

4 Baltimore Ravens (1-0) 1^st AFCN

The Ravens were able to top the best defense from 2009 in a nail-biter 10-9 finish. They were unable to get the running game established, however, and Joe Flacco showed poor awareness early on. The defense did have a vintage appearance, giving young QB Mark Sanchez nothing to work with all game.

Key Stat: 60 PYA (best in the NFL), with many pundits attacking Baltimore’s secondary as the team’s weakest unit, they’ll get a real test versus Carson Palmer in Cincy on Sunday (Carson threw for 340 yards against the Pats, of which 212 were to T.O. and Ocho).

5 Houston Texans (1-0) 1^st AFCS

The Texans got an early lead and never looked back as Arian Foster carried the Texans to only their second victory over the Colts since their inception in 2002. Foster looked amazing, running for a Texans-record 231 yards and 3 TDs against a usually-stout Colts defense. Houston gained a huge advantage in the ultra-competitive AFC South with this win, but need more from their passing game to keep defenses honest.

Key Stat: 98 PYG (30^th in NFL), with teams soon to be game-planning to contain Foster, QB Matt Schaub needs to bring the passing game back to its recent form to avoid becoming one-dimensional.

6 Miami Dolphins (1-0) 1^st AFCE

Miami’s defense came out this week and held the Bills to 166 yards, which was the best total D in the league. With 3 sacks and a safety by Miami, the Bills were unable to slow down the Dolphins in the trenches. This gives Miami an easy lead in the AFC East, where they will be heavily challenged by the Patriots this season.

Key Stat: 0 Turnovers, when you have a young, inexperienced starting QB, ball security is extremely important, so it’s good to see a lack of foolish miscues.

7 Indianapolis Colts (0-1) 4^th AFCS

I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Colts as 4^th in the AFC South. Ever. This loss doesn’t show the Colts waning, but the Texans improving. The Colts are still elite as long as Peyton Manning is under center. He threw all over the Texans in Sunday’s loss, going 40/57 for 433 yards and three scores. Expect Manning to let the Giants have it in Week Two.

Key Stat: 44 RYG (31^st in the NFL) With Peyton having to do all the work on offense (57 attempts is a LOT), the Colts need to work on establishing the run.

8 Tennessee Titans (1-0) 2^nd AFCS

With a decisive victory over the Raiders, the Titans are out to show that last year’s 0-6 start is just a memory and that this year’s team is the real deal. There was nothing too fancy, just great running by Chris Johnson and successful game-management by Vince Young to get a solid victory.

Key Stat: 12 straight 100-yard games rushing by halftime for CJ2K, which shows that he means it when he says he’s not satisfied with having less than 2500 yards this year.

9 Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) 2^nd AFCN

The Steelers can win without Ben Roethlisberger, but not with a lot of breathing room. Dennis Dixon needs to get more in synch with his offense against the Titans next week, or the defense won’t be able to keep it close.

Key Stat: Mendenhall’s 22 carries for 122 yards, the Steelers can’t expect Dixon to replace Big Ben’s ability, so it is imperative for Mendenhall to produce until Week Five.

10 Seattle Seahawks (1-0) 1^st NFCW

What a way for Pete Carroll and Matt Hasselbeck to come out swinging against the NFC West favorite and get a leg up in the weakest division in the NFL. Holding the 49ers to little production on the ground was crucial and allowed the ‘Hawks to win with 31 unanswered points (21 of which were Hasselbeck TDs).

Key Stat: Hasselbeck went 18/23 for 170 yards and 2 TDs, plus another TD on the ground. Seattle can not win without him under center, and he looked good.

11 San Diego Chargers (0-1) 3^rd AFCW

You could look at Phillip Rivers’ face once to tell that he was missing holdouts Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. The Chargers outplayed the Chiefs 389-197 in offensive yards, but couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. Add in the poor special teams coverage, and the Chargers have some issues to analyze going into Week Two.

Key Stat: 4/15 on third down, that’s not efficiency you can afford to have when playing from behind, showing the impact of Jackson’s holdout.

12 Dallas Cowboys (0-1) 4^th NFCE

Penalties destroy good teams; just check out the ’09 Ravens. With an extremely foolish end-of-the-game penalty negating the winning TD, Wade Phillips is going to strictly direct practice with his offensive line. His OC will probably generate plenty of scrutiny if this loss damages their NFC East record with later losses.

Key Stat: Miles Austin had 10 catches for 146 yards and a score, proving that he earned his extension to be the #1 receiver in Dallas.

13 Washington Redskins (1-0) 1^st NFCE

This was a great way to start Mike Shanahan’s comeback. Holding off the Cowboys was good, but they only one on a penalty. Not to diminish the value of the win, but the defense needs to tighten up and finish games.

Key Stat: No offensive touchdowns, showing that the offense has some work to do, though it’s always positive to see playmakers on defense.

14 Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) 1^st AFCW

Toppling giants doesn’t always require a lot of offense, but the KC special teams showed up this week and rookie Dexter McCluster is proving to be a playmaker for the unit. Huge win in the AFC West for the Chiefs.

Key Stat: 10/22 (45.5%), 68 yards; Matt Cassel’s stats are unimpressive, and he posted a meager 68.0 passer rating, which has to improve for the Chiefs to balance their attack.

15 Chicago Bears (1-0) 1^st NFCN

Despite an early division victory, Coach Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and he can’t be too impressed by his team in their win over the Lions. I was pleased to see Jay Cutler keep his turnover ratio even, but he’s going to need to do better with a tough road game against Dallas (ranked 5^th in offense and 7^th in defense) coming up.

Key Stat: 20 RYA (1^st in NFL), the Lions are not a running threat, but this is good for their front seven, especially after acquiring free agent DE Julius Peppers this offseason.

16 Atlanta Falcons (0-1) 4^th NFCS

The Falcons are the third team ranking 4^th in their division in the top half of the league, and they played a hard defensive struggle against the Steelers. Without being able to generate much from their running game, Matt Ryan was unable to get into a good rhythm.

Key Stat: 58 RYG; Michael Turner hasn’t returned to his 2008 form yet and has to against the Cardinals this week, who ranked 17^th against the run last year.

17 New York Giants (1-0) 2^nd NFCE

The Giants won their first game in the New Meadowlands and laid a second-half beat-down on the Panthers. Eli Manning threw three interceptions, but the defense was able to limit the Panthers ability to capitalize too much on them.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 75 yards, 3TD; Hakeem Nicks gave Eli a solid target to rely on this week, with the receiving corps being heavily scrutinized this offseason.

18 Arizona Cardinals (1-0) 2^nd NFCW

Derek Anderson looked pretty good in his debut for Arizona, throwing for almost 300 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. He needs to continue building a rapport with his receivers with Atlanta looking to even out their record. It wouldn’t hurt to continue shutting the run out either, with Michael Turner struggling against Pittsburgh last week.

Key Stat: 378 yards total offense (7^th best), the main concern following Kurt Warner’s retirement was the ability of the offense to bounce back, and so far, so good.

19 Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) 3^rd AFCS

The Jaguars came out offensively against the Broncos and were able to score points, an issue in 2009 (24^th in the NFL in points per game). David Garrard posted his best passer rating since 2006 and pocket Hercules looked awesome in the running game.

Key Stat: 16/21, 175 yards, 3TD by David Garrard; Garrard has been criticized for his lack of TDs, with just 30 since 2008, so it was good to see the production early this season.

20 Denver Broncos (0-1) 2^nd AFCW

Good news: the offense looked good, and it seems that Brandon Marshall isn’t being missed too badly. Plus, the pass defense played alright, holding #1 WR Mike Sims-Walker to 0 catches. Bad news: the Broncos are 0-1.

Key Stat: 5 catches, 117 yards by Brandon Lloyd, it’s crucial that the Broncos maintain a strong passing game without Marshall, and Lloyd could step up into the role.

21 Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) 4^th AFCN

The offensive additions of rookies TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, as well as the veteran Terrell Owens have already paid dividends. Carson Palmer threw for 345 yards against New England, despite a good bit of garbage time yardage.

Key Stat: Zero sacks; when you’re ranked first in your division, you play the other division leaders in your conference the next year (Colts, Chargers, Patriots), and all three the Bengals play have amazing aerial attacks, which begin with powerful offensive lines. With no push up front, this will be a very long season.

22 Minnesota Vikings (0-1) 3^rd NFCN

It already looks like last year’s success for Brett Favre is not going to last for too long. Sidney Rice has been out, and now Percy Harvin isn’t looking healthy either. If the Vikings can trade for Chargers’ holdout Vincent Jackson, there could be a silver lining.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 76 yards, TD; TE Visanthe Shiancoe is still a scoring threat after having 11 TDs last season, and Favre badly needs it with WRs dropping left and right.

23 New York Jets (0-1) 3^rd AFCE

The Jets came into Week One huffing and puffing, but the Ravens blew the house down, deflating the high hopes the Jets carried. The defense was sloppy and was unable to match up against the Ravens multiple passing threats, though Darrelle Revis did look good keeping his side of the field barren.

Key Stat: 14 penalties for 125 yards; sloppy plays gashed the defense for critical yardage, especially a Roughing the Kicker call on 4^th down. That’s dumb.

24 Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) 3^rd NFCE

The heir to McNabb went down with a concussion, and Michael Vick looked like he was in old form, rushing and passing for over 100 yards apiece, the seventh time he’s done so in his career. The defense, on the other hand, definitely needs some work.

Key Stat: 16/24, 175 yards, TD, 11 attempts rushing, 103 yards, TD; Vick’s stat line looks awesome, and if he starts against Detroit, the Eagles will win. Mark it.

25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) 2^nd NFCS

Josh Freeman looked great for Tampa Bay, giving the fans something to cheer about. The defense generated turnovers, too, which always makes things easier on a young quarterback.

Key Stat: 17/28, 182 yards, 2TD, INT; Josh Freeman provides stability at QB for Tampa, and though his stats aren’t too flashy, he manages the game well and isn’t reckless.

26 San Francisco 49ers (0-1) 4^th NFCW

Big trouble in San Francisco is brewing after the poor play all over the offense against the Seahawks. Alex Smith is being criticized; Michael Crabtree is under fire… The defense looked unable to stop Matt Hasselbeck, though they did stuff the run well.

Key Stat: 17 attempts, 38 yards; RB Frank Gore is a huge piece of the offense, and if he continues to disappoint, Mike Singletary will look elsewhere to head the charge.

27 Detroit Lions (0-1) 4^th NFCN

Detroit could have won the game if the NFL Rulebook was written with common sense guiding the authors. Alas, Calvin Johnson didn’t get the game-winning TD credited. With a hard-fought division game under their belt, the Lions showed they are able to win games. Doing so without QB Matthew Stafford might be difficult though.

Key Stat: 4 sacks; I said before the season started that the Detroit front seven would be strong, and there you have it, including a sack by rookie Ndamukong Suh in his debut.

28 Oakland Raiders (0-1) 4^th AFCW

The Raiders were thoroughly outplayed by the Titans in Week One, posting the 22^nd-ranked offense and the 21^st-ranked defense. The defense allowed 5 TDs and the Titans went 3/3 in the red zone for 21 points.

Key Stat: 22/37, 180 yards, TD, INT; Jason Campbell looked way less than spectacular in his silver-and-black debut. He was brought in to turn the offense around, and must do so in order to avoid dropping to 0-2 against St. Louis.

29 St. Louis Rams (0-1) 3^rd NFCW

There wasn’t a victory to celebrate in St. Louis, but they do have some hope in rookie QB Sam Bradford, who performed admirably. Not many rookies would be able to keep a lot of poise behind that offensive line.

Key Stat: 32/55, 253 yards, TD, 3 INT; Sam Bradford threw a lot in his regular season debut. Building the running game up will help him both keep his picks down and allow adjustment to NFL-speed.

30 Buffalo Bills (0-1) 4^th AFCE

The Bills looked anemic against the Dolphins, with the only worthwhile play being Roscoe Parrish’s 31 yard TD. Chan Gailey has got a lot of work to do.

Key Stat: 6 three-and-outs; for the offense to score, they have got to be able to move the ball. John Madden couldn’t have said it better.

31 Carolina Panthers (0-1) 3^rd NFCS

The Carolina defense was poor at stopping the Giants at getting points off turnovers, which doesn’t help with a young quarterback. This team isn’t built for the long haul, and with Jimmy Clausen possibly starting in Week Two, let the growing pains begin.

Key Stat: 2 points scored in the 2^nd half; no way to come back from behind if you can’t score all game, and a safety isn’t going to cut it against a solid offense.

32 Cleveland Browns (0-1) 3^rd AFCN

The Browns are just bad. They lost starting QB Jake Delhomme and will play an excited Kansas City team. Expect losses from these guys.

Key Stat: 2 catches, 46 yards, TD; second-year pro Mohamed Massaquoi’s growth is critical to a weak passing game in Cleveland.

Tim's Offensive Players of the Week - Week One

With Week Two looming ahead, let's take a look at some great individual offensive performances that really stood out in Week One.

AFC Offensive Player of the Week

RB Arian Foster

#23 Houston Texans

33 carries, 231 yards, 7.0 ypc, 3 TD

1 reception, 7 yards

Foster put the Texans on his back and marched them to a crucial early-season divisional match-up against the Indianapolis Colts.

NFC Offensive Player of the Week

QB Michael Vick

#7 Philadelphia Eagles

16-24, 175 yards, TD, 101.9 QB rating

11 carries, 103 yards, 9.3 ypc

Stepping in for an injured Kevin Kolb, Vick performed admirably against a tough Green Bay defense. He led the NFC in individual rushing yards and yards per carry in Week One.

All images are (c) National Football League, available at http://www.NFL.com.

Week 1 Injuries

There were two very costly injuries this week, leading to key starters hitting the IR. First in Green Bay, starting halfback Ryan Grant sustained a serious ankle injury, forcing him to miss the rest of the season. He is expected to have surgery and need at least one screw inserted into his ankle to help it heal.

During last night's game versus the Ravens, the Jets' starting defensive tackle Kris Jenkins suffered his second straight torn left anterior cruciate ligament while trying to tackle Ravens fullback Le'Ron McClain. This injury comes one year after tearing the same ACL in 2009. He was put on the IR and will have to decide whether to give it another comeback next season or to hang it up after this injury.

Also, around the league, there were four concussions that will be closely monitored by the NFL's more stringent policies surrounding head injuries. Eagles' quarterback Kevin Kolb and linebacker Stewart Bradley both suffered concussions against the Packers, as did Panthers' quarterback Matt Moore and Giants' tight end Kevin Boss.

Backup QBs Michael Vick (Eagles) and Jimmy Clausen (Panthers) stepped in after these injuries and are currently preparing to go for next week if the NFL won't clear the starters to play after suffering a head injury.

Week 1: What I Learned From Sunday

Well, Sunday's games have all wrapped up. And I learned a lot from those games, both from a fantasy perspective and a real world perspective.

1. I want nothing to do with Jason Campell.
   Seriously. Absolutely nothing. He was 22/37 today for 180 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick but he also fumbled twice, losing one. Yes, he was better than JaMarcus Russell but, seriously, who isn't? Campbell grabbed up some garbage time yards which his fantasy owners appreciate. But if you're a fantasy owner and you're starting Jason Campbell in Week 1 then you:
   a) Are a blood relative of Jason Campbell
   b) Do not know how to play fantasy football
   c) Are Al Davis
   Or some combination of the three. My suggestion: sever all ties with Jason Campbell, if you haven't done so already.
   
   
2. Michael Vick vs. Kevin Kolb.
   Those were some interesting post game comments from Michael "Who Let the Dogs Out" Vick. To paraphrase, Vick said something along the lines of "If I had been out there for all four quarters, we might not have lost." But Reid maintained that Kolb was the starter as long as he was healthy. But Vick looked like the Vick of old and if Kolb isn't playing next week because of his concussion, Vick could be a valuable fill in starter for fantasy.
   
   
3. Great Expectations Revisited.
   Looking back at my predictions in my Great Expecations post, I'm proud to say that I was pretty accurate. I nailed Jay Cutler and Chris Johnson to have great weeks, Kyle Orton ended up having good but not great numbers (just as I said he would), Cadillac Williams got 9 fantasy points (which was better than Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Michael Turner, Joseph Addai, and Jerome Harrison, to name a few), and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had almost identical yardage games with Brown grabbing the TD. I was also right on Tony Gonzalez being a bad play against Pittsburgh (2 catches for 35 yards) but he'll be fine this year.
   
   Alright, here's where I was kinda wrong. Johnny Knox was good but not great against Detroit but Cutler looked to him seven times so I still think his numbers will improve. Santana Moss was good but not great against Dallas (6 catches for 77 yards) but McNabb looked to him early and often. Expect a pretty good year from the veteran. Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow were each targeted six times and reeled in four catches for 47 and 32 yards respectively but each has a good quarterback throwing them the ball (I thought Josh Freeman particularly looked good in a win over Cleveland) and should still put up good numbers this year. No need to panic.
   
   And now, where I was really wrong. Michael Crabtree had two catches for 18 yards on a whopping 8 targets. This was on a day where the entire 49ers team looked out of sync against Seattle (Seattle?! Are you kidding me?). The running game could not get going, Alex Smith looked like his old terrible self, and even the defense looked bad. I'm not saying you need to be worried but, from someone who had San Francisco going 13-3 and making a deep playoff run, I'm worried. Derek Anderson also played a good game in St. Louis this year. Sure, it was against St. Louis but he threw for 297 yards with 1 TD and, most importantly, no turnovers. But I still wouldn't start him anytime soon.
   
   Last but not least is a call which, on paper, looks wrong but I still believe I got right: Rashard Mendenhall would not do well against Atlanta. Prior to his 50 yard game winning TD scamper in OT, Mendenhall had 21 carries for 70 yards. 3.4 ypc. Not spectacular. But that final run bumped him up to 5th best running back of the week and had me shaking my fist in annoyance that he would look to prove me wrong. But I still don't like him for where he was drafted.
   
   
4. Arian Foster is Legit.
   I admit that I was not one of those who was aboard the Arian Foster bandwagon at the beginning of the year. I thought he was a back that would put up solid numbers based on sheer bulk of carries and had him listed at 24th among RBs, just between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. But on a day where Matt Schaub threw for barely over 100 yards, Foster placed the Texans squarely on his back and ran for a team record 231 yards and added 3 TDs, a 41 point fantasy effort. In one of my leagues, I benched him in favor of Cedric Benson (9 fantasy points) and Knowshon Moreno (12 fantasy points). I won't make that mistake again. For those of you who are lucky enough to have him on your roster, congrats on that 7th round steal. You've got a top RB in your hands.
   
   
5. Paging San Francisco...
   Can somebody please tell the San Francisco 49ers that the season has started? Because I don't think they showed up for Week 1. They were dismantled by Seattle 31-6, a team that ditched their top WR and one of their best CBs during the preseason. SF looked terrible for pretty much the entire game and this is where I think it went awry.
   
   On SF's first drive, they have first and goal from the 8. Alex Smith completes a TD pass to Josh Morgan which is challenged and then overturned. They proceed to then run for 2 yards with Frank Gore and then throw him another 1 yard pass. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: From the Seattle 15, Smith throws incomplete to Crabtree, completes 9 yard pass to Gore, and Gore runs for no gain. Result: Failed 4th down conversion as Smith throws incomplete to Moran Norris.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: 1st and goal from the 9. Smith completes to Delanie Walker for 6 yards, Gore runs for 1 yard, Norris runs for 1 yard. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle then goes on to drive for a TD, intercept Alex Smith, score a TD on the ensuing drive, make SF go 3 and out before going in for halftime. At this point, 14-3 Seattle. After the half, Seattle gets a pick 6, forces a 3 and out, and scores a TD on the next ensuing drive. Now, it's 28-6. After SF's first two FGs, Frank Gore, hands down, the best player on the 49ers, gained only 19 total yards on 8 touches. Ummm...guys? Give him the ball? Maybe???
   
   
6. I Think Wes Welker is Fine.
   Who had an ACL injury? Welker only went caught 8 balls for 64 yards and 2 TDs in his first regular season game since tearing his ACL just before the playoffs last year. I managed to grab Welker late in a lot of my leagues (in one, with the last pick of the 7th round) as a borderline #2/#3 receiver. He's currently the 5th best WR. The time to buy low has passed. If you grabbed him, pat yourself on the back.
   
   
7. Hakeem Nicks is the Top Fantasy Receiver?
   If I went to a room filled with the nation's top fantasy football experts and said, "Raise your hand if you think Hakeem Nicks will be the top fantasy receiver in Week 1," I would have been looking at a bunch of filled pockets. But Nicks managed to rack up four catches for 75 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday. Can he keep up the pace? No, of course not. But if there was ever a time to sell high, it's now. I'm not saying trade Nicks, but if you can get a good deal for him, now's the time to pull the trigger.
   
   
8. Time for the Cowboys to Snag a New Right Tackle?
   I watched Sunday Night's Cowboys at Redskins game and a couple of things stood out at me.
   a) Donovan McNabb looked like the Donovan of old. If you're desperate for a fantasy QB, you could do a whole lot worse.
   b) Tony Romo looked hesitant, but smart. Romo finished with a stat line of 31/47 for 282 and 1 TD but didn't seem to make many bad throws (okay, there were two on that final drive but Washington's secondary have arms all the way down to their fingers) and made all the right decisions. Except on...
   c) Whoever on Dallas called that play at the end of the first half might be legally retarded. For those of you who didn't see it, here's the gist. Washington is up 3-0 with about 4 seconds left before halftime. Dallas is on their own 36 and it's 1st and 20. Romo drops back, steps up in the pocket and throws almost perfectly sideways to Tashard Choice, who is standing at the 37. With about 9 defenders between him and the endzone, the logical choice is to either go down or run out of bounds. Instead, he decides he's going to try and score and runs into 3 Redskins, including DeAngelo Hall, who strips the ball and runs untouched for a TD. It was pants-on-head retarded and is in the running for bonehead play of the year. That and, of course...
   c) Alex Barron, penalty king of the NFL. The Cowboys acquired him from St. Louis in the offseason for linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Now, Cowboys fans are wanting a trade back. Trailing by 6 in the closing minutes, Romo lead the Cowboys down the field and, with about four seconds left on the clock, stepped up in the pocket and fired to a wide open Roy Williams in the end zone. And, unbelievably, that sentence does not end with "and the ball is dropped by Williams!" Instead, it ended with a catch and the potential winning touchdown. Until...."Holding. Number 71 offense." And since the penalty occurred as time expired, the down could not be replayed. End. Of. Game. I'll be surprised if Barron is starting next time the Cowboys take the field. It's a shame, because that would have given Romo a more productive fantasy day and overshadowed a 10 catch, 146 yard, 1 TD effort from Miles Austin, who is proving that his new contract is money well spent.
   
   
9. Unfamiliar Names in the Week's Top 10 WRs.
   The current Top 10 WR feature some familiar faces (Chad Ochocinco, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith O.G.) but also has some newbies. Austin Collie actually outperformed Reggie Wayne (19 points to 15), just as ESPN's Matthew Berry predicted he would and would be a good pickup for teams in need of a WR. Remember, he caught 7 TDs last year. Sure, Berry said it would be Pierre Garcon but his theory that Reggie Wayne would not be the Colts' top receiver still is sound. Also up there is Tennessee's Nate Washington, who scored on a deep pass from Vince Young, and Arizona's Steve Breaston, who caught 7 passes for 132 yards. Larry Fitzgerald only caught 3. Now, some will see this as, "Hey, look who Derek Anderson's favorite target is! Steve Breaston!" But don't be fooled. Breaston was targeted 7 times, Fitzgerald 15. Expect Fitz's numbers to increase and Breaston's to drop.

Alright guys, that just about does it. Be sure to keep an eye open later in the week for Week 2's Great Expectations, Do Not Want!, and a game by game breakdown of players to start and who to bench. And also be on the lookout for Tim's first edition of Power Rankings and some more predictions.

Week 1: Predictions

It's the moment you've all been waiting for! The football season begins tomorrow with Brett Favre and the Vikings travelling south to face Drew Brees and the Saints. It has all the makings to be a great season opener. Here's how Tim and I think everything will go down this week.

Minnesota at New Orleans

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Carolina at New York Giants

Tim: New York

Dan: New York

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: Atlanta

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

Tim: Cleveland

Dan: Cleveland

Denver at Jacksonville

Tim: Denver

Dan: Denver

Indianapolis at Houston

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Miami at Buffalo

Tim: Miami

Dan: Miami

Detroit at Chicago

Tim: Detroit

Dan: Chicago

Oakland at Tennessee

Tim: Oakland

Dan: Tennessee

Cincinnati at New England

Tim: New England

Dan: New England

Arizona at St. Louis

Tim: Arizona

Dan: St. Loius

San Francisco at Seattle

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Dallas at Washington

Tim: Dallas

Dan: Dallas

Baltimore at New York Jets

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

San Diego at Kansas City

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Week 1: Great Expectations

Well, week 1 starts in two days. So it's time to get those fantasy lineups set. If you're anything like me, you've got questions at some position somewhere on your team. Now, these will not be fantasy studs (AP, Drew Brees, etc.) but pretty much picked from the rest of the crop. So here are some players who I think exceed their expectations in week 1.

Exceeds Expectations

Jay Cutler (vs. Detroit)

Cutler opens up the year at home against Detroit, last year's worst defense against fantasy QBs. And Cutler, like him or not, did not have a terrible fantasy season last year. It wasn't pretty, statistically, but he was a decent source of fantasy points. In two games against Detroit last year, Cutler threw for 417 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Aside from two games against Detroit, there were only two games where Cutler did not have an interception: week 2 against Pittsburgh and week 13 against St. Louis. My verdict: start Cutler.

Kyle Orton (at Jacksonville)

This is more of a matchup play than anything else. Jacksonville is the 29th worst defense against fantasy QBs and Orton is a smart enough player to dissect them. His numbers won't end up being spectacular this week but, if you're in a bind at QB (why would you be in a bind at QB before week 1 even starts????), why not take a shot. However, I AM NOT SAYING BENCH YOUR TOP QB IN FAVOR OF KYLE ORTON! If you have Brees or whoever, go for it. But I don't think I needed to tell you that.

Chris Johnson (vs. Oakland)

Alright, this is a one-time thing. I normally wouldn't have a player like Chris Johnson here but the matchup is too much. Oakland is 32nd in terms of points allowed to fantasy running backs. You can hear Chris Johnson licking his lips. Okay, I will never put another elite player in this again.

Cadillac Williams (vs. Cleveland)

The Bucs cut Derrick Ward which means they're content with letting Williams carry the load, at least for now. Williams got double digit carries in every game but two last year and in last year's season opener against Dallas, he ran for 97 yards and 1 TD. And now he gets Cleveland. I like Williams this week.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (at Buffalo)

I'm going to predict that just about anybody against Buffalo will make the Exceeds Expectations section. As long as they are both healthy, I think they split the carries just about 50-50 and I'm feeling that each will find the end zone in week 1. However, if I had to choose one, I would go with Ronnie Brown.

Malcom Floyd (at Kansas City)

I've been high on Malcom Floyd all preseason and have found myself reaching for him in just about every fantasy draft that I do so Monday night will show me if I was dead on or way out in left field. But I do like just about everyone on the Chargers against the Chiefs. Gates will be the top target in that offense, at least until Vincent Jackson gets back (between you and me, I don't think he puts on a Chargers uniform this year), but Floyd is a freak athlete and will get his. I'm thinking he starts strong in week 1.

Johnny Knox (vs. Detroit)

See Jay Cutler. I'm thinking that Knox and Cutler have developed some sort of chemistry on the field. We'll see on Sunday.

Michael Crabtree (at Seattle)

Crabtree showed flashes of greatness last year and I think that rolls over into this year. Opening against Seattle sure is a good way to start.

Jermichael Finley (at Philadelphia)

Philadelphia has good corners but can't cover tight ends. Finley has looked like a monster in the preseason and I'm buying the hype. Start him this week. Hell, start him every week! I say he finishes as the 4th best tight end.

Kellen Winslow (vs. Cleveland)

Cleveland is not very strong at linebacker and that's exactly who will be covering Winslow. Also, look for Winslow to put his best foot forward as he faces his old team. Start Winslow.

Falls Short

Derek Anderson (at. St. Louis)

St. Louis is not a good pass defense. Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I think he finds Larry Fitzgerald multiple times and maybe gets him one score. I also think he finds the Rams' cornerbacks multiple times and maybe for one score.

Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Atlanta)

I'm not on board the Mendenhall train. I think that teams stack the box against him and he doens't break through. I'm also worried about his fumbling issues. I don't think it's fixed. And Atlanta's run defense is pretty good (13th in the league against fantasy RBs).

Santana Moss (vs. Dallas)

Dallas' corners are pretty good and I don't think McNabb will be at full strength. While I like Moss this year as a sleeper, this is not the week to test him.

Tony Gonzalez (at Pittsburgh)

Now, I still think Tony Gonzalez is the best tight end to ever play the game and I think that he still has a good year this season. It's just that Pittsburgh's linebackers are really good and Atlanta has plenty of other weapons to use. Gonzo will get some catches this week. Just don't expect great numbers.

Alright, there you have it. Week 1 starts Thursday night. Be there.