Week 1: Great Expectations

Well, week 1 starts in two days. So it's time to get those fantasy lineups set. If you're anything like me, you've got questions at some position somewhere on your team. Now, these will not be fantasy studs (AP, Drew Brees, etc.) but pretty much picked from the rest of the crop. So here are some players who I think exceed their expectations in week 1.

Exceeds Expectations

Jay Cutler (vs. Detroit)

Cutler opens up the year at home against Detroit, last year's worst defense against fantasy QBs. And Cutler, like him or not, did not have a terrible fantasy season last year. It wasn't pretty, statistically, but he was a decent source of fantasy points. In two games against Detroit last year, Cutler threw for 417 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Aside from two games against Detroit, there were only two games where Cutler did not have an interception: week 2 against Pittsburgh and week 13 against St. Louis. My verdict: start Cutler.

Kyle Orton (at Jacksonville)

This is more of a matchup play than anything else. Jacksonville is the 29th worst defense against fantasy QBs and Orton is a smart enough player to dissect them. His numbers won't end up being spectacular this week but, if you're in a bind at QB (why would you be in a bind at QB before week 1 even starts????), why not take a shot. However, I AM NOT SAYING BENCH YOUR TOP QB IN FAVOR OF KYLE ORTON! If you have Brees or whoever, go for it. But I don't think I needed to tell you that.

Chris Johnson (vs. Oakland)

Alright, this is a one-time thing. I normally wouldn't have a player like Chris Johnson here but the matchup is too much. Oakland is 32nd in terms of points allowed to fantasy running backs. You can hear Chris Johnson licking his lips. Okay, I will never put another elite player in this again.

Cadillac Williams (vs. Cleveland)

The Bucs cut Derrick Ward which means they're content with letting Williams carry the load, at least for now. Williams got double digit carries in every game but two last year and in last year's season opener against Dallas, he ran for 97 yards and 1 TD. And now he gets Cleveland. I like Williams this week.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (at Buffalo)

I'm going to predict that just about anybody against Buffalo will make the Exceeds Expectations section. As long as they are both healthy, I think they split the carries just about 50-50 and I'm feeling that each will find the end zone in week 1. However, if I had to choose one, I would go with Ronnie Brown.

Malcom Floyd (at Kansas City)

I've been high on Malcom Floyd all preseason and have found myself reaching for him in just about every fantasy draft that I do so Monday night will show me if I was dead on or way out in left field. But I do like just about everyone on the Chargers against the Chiefs. Gates will be the top target in that offense, at least until Vincent Jackson gets back (between you and me, I don't think he puts on a Chargers uniform this year), but Floyd is a freak athlete and will get his. I'm thinking he starts strong in week 1.

Johnny Knox (vs. Detroit)

See Jay Cutler. I'm thinking that Knox and Cutler have developed some sort of chemistry on the field. We'll see on Sunday.

Michael Crabtree (at Seattle)

Crabtree showed flashes of greatness last year and I think that rolls over into this year. Opening against Seattle sure is a good way to start.

Jermichael Finley (at Philadelphia)

Philadelphia has good corners but can't cover tight ends. Finley has looked like a monster in the preseason and I'm buying the hype. Start him this week. Hell, start him every week! I say he finishes as the 4th best tight end.

Kellen Winslow (vs. Cleveland)

Cleveland is not very strong at linebacker and that's exactly who will be covering Winslow. Also, look for Winslow to put his best foot forward as he faces his old team. Start Winslow.

Falls Short

Derek Anderson (at. St. Louis)

St. Louis is not a good pass defense. Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I think he finds Larry Fitzgerald multiple times and maybe gets him one score. I also think he finds the Rams' cornerbacks multiple times and maybe for one score.

Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Atlanta)

I'm not on board the Mendenhall train. I think that teams stack the box against him and he doens't break through. I'm also worried about his fumbling issues. I don't think it's fixed. And Atlanta's run defense is pretty good (13th in the league against fantasy RBs).

Santana Moss (vs. Dallas)

Dallas' corners are pretty good and I don't think McNabb will be at full strength. While I like Moss this year as a sleeper, this is not the week to test him.

Tony Gonzalez (at Pittsburgh)

Now, I still think Tony Gonzalez is the best tight end to ever play the game and I think that he still has a good year this season. It's just that Pittsburgh's linebackers are really good and Atlanta has plenty of other weapons to use. Gonzo will get some catches this week. Just don't expect great numbers.

Alright, there you have it. Week 1 starts Thursday night. Be there.