Sunday, September 19, 2010

Week 1: Power Rankings

Continuing a trend I started last season, I will be putting together a set of power rankings all season. This basically means that I assign seemingly arbitrary ranks (1-32) for each team, which don’t necessarily go by standings or actual records. It’s difficult to get much out of just having the stats from Week One, so don’t pay too much attention to wins/losses as we move out of the top 6 or so, 16 teams had to lose this week. Division standings are also somewhat deceptive, but were gained through the NFL’s website.

Sorry it’s up on gameday, this literally took about 15 hours of work to compose, with all the stat-compiling.

So, here’s the format:

Rank|Last Week’s Rank (LW)|Team Name|Record|Divisional Standing|Comments

Hopefully, by Week Five or so, I’ll be uploading a more interactive version of the power rankings, but until then, bear with me. Last note: there is no LW column this week. Here we go!

1 New Orleans Saints (1-0) 1st NFCS

The Saints looked solid enough in their opener last Thursday. Their stats weren’t amazing, but Drew Brees looked on form, and the defense was able to prevent either QB Brett Favre or RB Adrian Peterson from getting much done.

Key Stat: 0-2 FG, Garrett Hartley missed both attempts (46, 32) and in close games like this, you have to be able to rely on your kicker, so expect Hartley to come back strong or else have an ad out in the newspaper.

2 New England Patriots (1-0) 2nd AFCE

Wow. The Patriots of 2010 look like the Patriots of the early 2000s, and came to play hard with the Bengals. They made the former AFC North champs look like amateurs as Tom Brady gashed Cincy’s secondary for over 250 yards and 3 scores. However, New England’s defense surrendered the 3rd-most yardage in the NFL.

Key Stat: Wes Welker’s 8 grabs for 64 yards and 2 TDs show that his knee is feeling great, which is terrific news for Tom Brady.

3 Green Bay Packers (1-0) 2nd NFCN

Losing Ryan Grant for the season is going to hurt, but they have an incredible offense and backup Brandon Jackson could be a sleeper for a great year, fantasy owners. The stats don’t show the talent (17th-overall offense, 18th-overall defense), but the talent is present and overwhelming in opposing war rooms during planning sessions.

Key Stat: 5 Sacks, including 2.0 by Clay Matthews shows dedication to the pass-rush to help an injured defensive backfield.

4 Baltimore Ravens (1-0) 1st AFCN

The Ravens were able to top the best defense from 2009 in a nail-biter 10-9 finish. They were unable to get the running game established, however, and Joe Flacco showed poor awareness early on. The defense did have a vintage appearance, giving young QB Mark Sanchez nothing to work with all game.

Key Stat: 60 PYA (best in the NFL), with many pundits attacking Baltimore’s secondary as the team’s weakest unit, they’ll get a real test versus Carson Palmer in Cincy on Sunday (Carson threw for 340 yards against the Pats, of which 212 were to T.O. and Ocho).

5 Houston Texans (1-0) 1st AFCS

The Texans got an early lead and never looked back as Arian Foster carried the Texans to only their second victory over the Colts since their inception in 2002. Foster looked amazing, running for a Texans-record 231 yards and 3 TDs against a usually-stout Colts defense. Houston gained a huge advantage in the ultra-competitive AFC South with this win, but need more from their passing game to keep defenses honest.

Key Stat: 98 PYG (30th in NFL), with teams soon to be game-planning to contain Foster, QB Matt Schaub needs to bring the passing game back to its recent form to avoid becoming one-dimensional.

6 Miami Dolphins (1-0) 1st AFCE

Miami’s defense came out this week and held the Bills to 166 yards, which was the best total D in the league. With 3 sacks and a safety by Miami, the Bills were unable to slow down the Dolphins in the trenches. This gives Miami an easy lead in the AFC East, where they will be heavily challenged by the Patriots this season.

Key Stat: 0 Turnovers, when you have a young, inexperienced starting QB, ball security is extremely important, so it’s good to see a lack of foolish miscues.

7 Indianapolis Colts (0-1) 4th AFCS

I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Colts as 4th in the AFC South. Ever. This loss doesn’t show the Colts waning, but the Texans improving. The Colts are still elite as long as Peyton Manning is under center. He threw all over the Texans in Sunday’s loss, going 40/57 for 433 yards and three scores. Expect Manning to let the Giants have it in Week Two.

Key Stat: 44 RYG (31st in the NFL) With Peyton having to do all the work on offense (57 attempts is a LOT), the Colts need to work on establishing the run.

8 Tennessee Titans (1-0) 2nd AFCS

With a decisive victory over the Raiders, the Titans are out to show that last year’s 0-6 start is just a memory and that this year’s team is the real deal. There was nothing too fancy, just great running by Chris Johnson and successful game-management by Vince Young to get a solid victory.

Key Stat: 12 straight 100-yard games rushing by halftime for CJ2K, which shows that he means it when he says he’s not satisfied with having less than 2500 yards this year.

9 Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) 2nd AFCN

The Steelers can win without Ben Roethlisberger, but not with a lot of breathing room. Dennis Dixon needs to get more in synch with his offense against the Titans next week, or the defense won’t be able to keep it close.

Key Stat: Mendenhall’s 22 carries for 122 yards, the Steelers can’t expect Dixon to replace Big Ben’s ability, so it is imperative for Mendenhall to produce until Week Five.

10 Seattle Seahawks (1-0) 1st NFCW

What a way for Pete Carroll and Matt Hasselbeck to come out swinging against the NFC West favorite and get a leg up in the weakest division in the NFL. Holding the 49ers to little production on the ground was crucial and allowed the ‘Hawks to win with 31 unanswered points (21 of which were Hasselbeck TDs).

Key Stat: Hasselbeck went 18/23 for 170 yards and 2 TDs, plus another TD on the ground. Seattle can not win without him under center, and he looked good.

11 San Diego Chargers (0-1) 3rd AFCW

You could look at Phillip Rivers’ face once to tell that he was missing holdouts Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. The Chargers outplayed the Chiefs 389-197 in offensive yards, but couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. Add in the poor special teams coverage, and the Chargers have some issues to analyze going into Week Two.

Key Stat: 4/15 on third down, that’s not efficiency you can afford to have when playing from behind, showing the impact of Jackson’s holdout.

12 Dallas Cowboys (0-1) 4th NFCE

Penalties destroy good teams; just check out the ’09 Ravens. With an extremely foolish end-of-the-game penalty negating the winning TD, Wade Phillips is going to strictly direct practice with his offensive line. His OC will probably generate plenty of scrutiny if this loss damages their NFC East record with later losses.

Key Stat: Miles Austin had 10 catches for 146 yards and a score, proving that he earned his extension to be the #1 receiver in Dallas.

13 Washington Redskins (1-0) 1st NFCE

This was a great way to start Mike Shanahan’s comeback. Holding off the Cowboys was good, but they only one on a penalty. Not to diminish the value of the win, but the defense needs to tighten up and finish games.

Key Stat: No offensive touchdowns, showing that the offense has some work to do, though it’s always positive to see playmakers on defense.

14 Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) 1st AFCW

Toppling giants doesn’t always require a lot of offense, but the KC special teams showed up this week and rookie Dexter McCluster is proving to be a playmaker for the unit. Huge win in the AFC West for the Chiefs.

Key Stat: 10/22 (45.5%), 68 yards; Matt Cassel’s stats are unimpressive, and he posted a meager 68.0 passer rating, which has to improve for the Chiefs to balance their attack.

15 Chicago Bears (1-0) 1st NFCN

Despite an early division victory, Coach Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and he can’t be too impressed by his team in their win over the Lions. I was pleased to see Jay Cutler keep his turnover ratio even, but he’s going to need to do better with a tough road game against Dallas (ranked 5th in offense and 7th in defense) coming up.

Key Stat: 20 RYA (1st in NFL), the Lions are not a running threat, but this is good for their front seven, especially after acquiring free agent DE Julius Peppers this offseason.

16 Atlanta Falcons (0-1) 4th NFCS

The Falcons are the third team ranking 4th in their division in the top half of the league, and they played a hard defensive struggle against the Steelers. Without being able to generate much from their running game, Matt Ryan was unable to get into a good rhythm.

Key Stat: 58 RYG; Michael Turner hasn’t returned to his 2008 form yet and has to against the Cardinals this week, who ranked 17th against the run last year.

17 New York Giants (1-0) 2nd NFCE

The Giants won their first game in the New Meadowlands and laid a second-half beat-down on the Panthers. Eli Manning threw three interceptions, but the defense was able to limit the Panthers ability to capitalize too much on them.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 75 yards, 3TD; Hakeem Nicks gave Eli a solid target to rely on this week, with the receiving corps being heavily scrutinized this offseason.

18 Arizona Cardinals (1-0) 2nd NFCW

Derek Anderson looked pretty good in his debut for Arizona, throwing for almost 300 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. He needs to continue building a rapport with his receivers with Atlanta looking to even out their record. It wouldn’t hurt to continue shutting the run out either, with Michael Turner struggling against Pittsburgh last week.

Key Stat: 378 yards total offense (7th best), the main concern following Kurt Warner’s retirement was the ability of the offense to bounce back, and so far, so good.

19 Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) 3rd AFCS

The Jaguars came out offensively against the Broncos and were able to score points, an issue in 2009 (24th in the NFL in points per game). David Garrard posted his best passer rating since 2006 and pocket Hercules looked awesome in the running game.

Key Stat: 16/21, 175 yards, 3TD by David Garrard; Garrard has been criticized for his lack of TDs, with just 30 since 2008, so it was good to see the production early this season.

20 Denver Broncos (0-1) 2nd AFCW

Good news: the offense looked good, and it seems that Brandon Marshall isn’t being missed too badly. Plus, the pass defense played alright, holding #1 WR Mike Sims-Walker to 0 catches. Bad news: the Broncos are 0-1.

Key Stat: 5 catches, 117 yards by Brandon Lloyd, it’s crucial that the Broncos maintain a strong passing game without Marshall, and Lloyd could step up into the role.

21 Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) 4th AFCN

The offensive additions of rookies TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, as well as the veteran Terrell Owens have already paid dividends. Carson Palmer threw for 345 yards against New England, despite a good bit of garbage time yardage.

Key Stat: Zero sacks; when you’re ranked first in your division, you play the other division leaders in your conference the next year (Colts, Chargers, Patriots), and all three the Bengals play have amazing aerial attacks, which begin with powerful offensive lines. With no push up front, this will be a very long season.

22 Minnesota Vikings (0-1) 3rd NFCN

It already looks like last year’s success for Brett Favre is not going to last for too long. Sidney Rice has been out, and now Percy Harvin isn’t looking healthy either. If the Vikings can trade for Chargers’ holdout Vincent Jackson, there could be a silver lining.

Key Stat: 4 catches for 76 yards, TD; TE Visanthe Shiancoe is still a scoring threat after having 11 TDs last season, and Favre badly needs it with WRs dropping left and right.

23 New York Jets (0-1) 3rd AFCE

The Jets came into Week One huffing and puffing, but the Ravens blew the house down, deflating the high hopes the Jets carried. The defense was sloppy and was unable to match up against the Ravens multiple passing threats, though Darrelle Revis did look good keeping his side of the field barren.

Key Stat: 14 penalties for 125 yards; sloppy plays gashed the defense for critical yardage, especially a Roughing the Kicker call on 4th down. That’s dumb.

24 Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) 3rd NFCE

The heir to McNabb went down with a concussion, and Michael Vick looked like he was in old form, rushing and passing for over 100 yards apiece, the seventh time he’s done so in his career. The defense, on the other hand, definitely needs some work.

Key Stat: 16/24, 175 yards, TD, 11 attempts rushing, 103 yards, TD; Vick’s stat line looks awesome, and if he starts against Detroit, the Eagles will win. Mark it.

25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) 2nd NFCS

Josh Freeman looked great for Tampa Bay, giving the fans something to cheer about. The defense generated turnovers, too, which always makes things easier on a young quarterback.

Key Stat: 17/28, 182 yards, 2TD, INT; Josh Freeman provides stability at QB for Tampa, and though his stats aren’t too flashy, he manages the game well and isn’t reckless.

26 San Francisco 49ers (0-1) 4th NFCW

Big trouble in San Francisco is brewing after the poor play all over the offense against the Seahawks. Alex Smith is being criticized; Michael Crabtree is under fire… The defense looked unable to stop Matt Hasselbeck, though they did stuff the run well.

Key Stat: 17 attempts, 38 yards; RB Frank Gore is a huge piece of the offense, and if he continues to disappoint, Mike Singletary will look elsewhere to head the charge.

27 Detroit Lions (0-1) 4th NFCN

Detroit could have won the game if the NFL Rulebook was written with common sense guiding the authors. Alas, Calvin Johnson didn’t get the game-winning TD credited. With a hard-fought division game under their belt, the Lions showed they are able to win games. Doing so without QB Matthew Stafford might be difficult though.

Key Stat: 4 sacks; I said before the season started that the Detroit front seven would be strong, and there you have it, including a sack by rookie Ndamukong Suh in his debut.

28 Oakland Raiders (0-1) 4th AFCW

The Raiders were thoroughly outplayed by the Titans in Week One, posting the 22nd-ranked offense and the 21st-ranked defense. The defense allowed 5 TDs and the Titans went 3/3 in the red zone for 21 points.

Key Stat: 22/37, 180 yards, TD, INT; Jason Campbell looked way less than spectacular in his silver-and-black debut. He was brought in to turn the offense around, and must do so in order to avoid dropping to 0-2 against St. Louis.

29 St. Louis Rams (0-1) 3rd NFCW

There wasn’t a victory to celebrate in St. Louis, but they do have some hope in rookie QB Sam Bradford, who performed admirably. Not many rookies would be able to keep a lot of poise behind that offensive line.

Key Stat: 32/55, 253 yards, TD, 3 INT; Sam Bradford threw a lot in his regular season debut. Building the running game up will help him both keep his picks down and allow adjustment to NFL-speed.

30 Buffalo Bills (0-1) 4th AFCE

The Bills looked anemic against the Dolphins, with the only worthwhile play being Roscoe Parrish’s 31 yard TD. Chan Gailey has got a lot of work to do.

Key Stat: 6 three-and-outs; for the offense to score, they have got to be able to move the ball. John Madden couldn’t have said it better.

31 Carolina Panthers (0-1) 3rd NFCS

The Carolina defense was poor at stopping the Giants at getting points off turnovers, which doesn’t help with a young quarterback. This team isn’t built for the long haul, and with Jimmy Clausen possibly starting in Week Two, let the growing pains begin.

Key Stat: 2 points scored in the 2nd half; no way to come back from behind if you can’t score all game, and a safety isn’t going to cut it against a solid offense.

32 Cleveland Browns (0-1) 3rd AFCN

The Browns are just bad. They lost starting QB Jake Delhomme and will play an excited Kansas City team. Expect losses from these guys.

Key Stat: 2 catches, 46 yards, TD; second-year pro Mohamed Massaquoi’s growth is critical to a weak passing game in Cleveland.

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