I've always believed that the first 2-3 weeks of the season are the hardest to predict, whether from a fantasy perspective or not. You really have no idea how the teams are going to perform (example for me: the 49ers, a team I had predicted would go 13-3 and is currently 0-2) and basically all players other than the superstars all start out as question marks. That means that, at this point, you are getting a much better idea of how your fantasy (or favorite) team will perform for the rest of the season. This also means you are in the midst of big waiver-wire pickups and are deciding which players to drop. Now, the current rankings for players are obviously not what they will be at the end of the season (if Jason Snelling finishes in the top 5 running backs, I'll drop out of school) but we are starting to get a bit more of an indication. Still, by week 4, the ratings will begin to solidify.
The purpose of this post is to try to help give you an idea of which player's slow starts will get better and which are for real. Basically, is it time to hit the panic button?
Chad Henne
Many people (myself included) were very high on Henne with the acquisition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. But it seems that the Dolphins are still a run-first team. I had Henne at 11th at the start of the season but I'm now thinking that 21 might be a better ranking. He has 7 and 8 points in his first two starts. I've seen QBs get more than 7 and 8 points on one throw. It's time to hit the panic button. Fantasy owners, I think it's time to abandon Operation Henne. Concern level: 100%.
Joe Flacco
Flacco is currently the 33rd ranked QB. Just a reminder: there are 32 teams in the league. Flacco was my 9th QB in the preseason and I'm not ready to abandon hope just yet. But I am worried. Against the Bengals, Flacco made bad decision after bad decision and didn't look comfortable in the pocket. However, these have been two very good pass defenses that he has faced in the first two games. It'll get better. Concern level: 30%.
Brett Favre
Last season's career year feels like a distant memory. This new Favre has only 1 TD and 5 turnovers through two games. He and his receivers seem to be on different pages and nothing has gone right for the Vikings. I wouldn't say cut him because it looks like the Vikes could trade for Vincent Jackson and get Sidney Rice back in a few weeks. But I'm not about to start him. Concern level: 75%.
Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner
These guys were all top 10 running backs before the season started. They are currently the 22nd, 27th, 30th, and 31st ranked running backs. Some names that are ahead of them: Jason Snelling (5th), Mike Tolbert (13th), and Peyton Hillis (15th). Now, I know as well as you do that you are not about to jettison your first round pick because of two lackluster games, but is there room for concern? I'll look at each player.
For Ray Rice, the only concern I have with him is that Willis McGahee is his usual touchdown-vulturing self. Other than that, the concern level is at 5%.
DeAngelo Williams, one half of the dynamic Carolina rushing duo is currently outperforming Jonathan Stewart 136 yards to 55. And, that's 36 touches to 13. I'm not worried about Williams, other than the fact that I did see Stewart get a key 4th down goal line carry (and did not convert it). Still, if there's a Carolina RB that you want, it's Williams. But the Carolina offense has looked pretty sad. If I can get rid of Williams, I think I would. Concern level: 40%.
Maurice Jones-Drew is a beast, no way around it. He is easily the best player on Jacksonville and was a fantasy stud last year. But he only had 13 touches this past week, the same amount as his backup, Rashad Jennings. The problem with this past game was that the Jags were playing from behind pretty much from the get-go and abandoned the run. Looking at their upcoming schedule, they get Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Tennessee in three of their next four games. If you could trade MJD for another first round talent, I might do it. Concern level: 25%.
Michael Turner was on his way to a great game (9 carries for 75 yards) before he got hurt. I, like many other Michael Turner owners, thought to myself Oh hell, not this again. However, coach Mike Smith said that Turner had been cleared to return and might have done so, had the game not been such a blowout. If this were a first time occurrence, I might give him a pass, but we saw this all of last year. When he's healthy, he's a top 10/top 5 back. When he isn't...concern level: 40%.
Justin Forsett
Forsett is easily the best back in the Seattle backfield but, for some reason, Pete Carroll keeps inexplicably using Julius Jones. Jones has three less carries than Forsett and 57 less yards! I'll give you a moment to let that sink in. If Seattle would just give Forsett the clear starting job and stop fooling around with Jones, he would be a starter. As it is right now, he won't get enough touches to be a viable starting option. I'm not starting him but I'm not dropping him just yet. Concern level: 50%.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews was a popular late 3rd/early 4th round pick in drafts but, so far, has only managed 7 points. Part of that was because he got hurt in his last game and left after only five carries for 26 yards and a fumble. But the fumble is the thing that concerns me. That's two fumbles lost in two games. Some are saying it's bad luck, others are saying it's a sign of things to come. I fall in the middle of the spectrum. I wouldn't worry about it because we have such a small sample size. But, if the numbers don't change by week 6, I would be worried. Hell, if he fumbles in week 3, I'm worried. He's supposed to play this week after his injury so he should be good to go for fantasy lineups. Concern level: 35%.
Ricky Williams
Williams is part of the two headed monster that is the Dolphins' backfield. But it is clear that he is the lesser of the two heads. In two games, Williams actually has two more carries than Ronnie Brown but Brown has outgained Williams by 53 yards. Williams is averaging a meager 3.3 ypc and has no TDs. If I have him, I'm looking to cut him for other options. But, if Brown were to get injured (which he inevitably will do), Williams' value goes up. Until then, my concern level is at 80%.
Marion Barber and Felix Jones
The Cowboys have all but abandoned the run and both Barber's and Jones' numbers have suffered because of that. Each have managed only 6 fantasy points on the year, or the equivalent of 1 TD. If I could have one, I would want Jones because I think he winds up being the starter. Of course, from what I've seen so far, Barber looks like the more consistent starter. However, in a perfect world, I wouldn't start either of them until the Cowboys can get something that resembles a running game going. My concern level for Barber is 65% and for Jones it is 70%.
Shonn Greene
So far during the season, LaDainian Tomlinson has outscored Greene 16-4 in fantasy points. Is this a sign for things to come? I think yes. Tomlinson has looked younger and faster, much better than he did last year and Green looks like he'll wind up being the change of pace back. Coach Rex Ryan says that he wants to split the carries 50-50 with each back getting 15 carries a game but I think they might wind up going with the hot hand. If I could sell Green, I would but don't be surprised if he picks his game up later on in the season. Concern level: 70%.
C.J. Spiller
Spiller has two fantasy points through 2 games and has 8 carries for 9 yards. He was one of the most talented rookie running backs in this past draft but he drew the short straw when he was drafted by Buffalo. There are holes all over that team and I'm not about to start anybody on it. I don't think that I would drop Spiller but I'm not starting him until he shows me something. Concern level: 80%.
Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker
There are four receivers who are currently tied for the 30th place rank in fantasy points. Can you guess who they are? If you said Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker, and Devin Hester because their names were right above this little trivia, I'd tell you to stop being a smart ass. But, yes, Randy Moss is 30th in wide receiver points, tied with Boldin, MSW, and Hester. Of the four of them, Moss is the one I'm least concerned about because, well, he's Randy Moss and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. His concern level is 0%.
Concerning Boldin, he was plagued by a poor performance from Joe Flacco on Sunday so, naturally, his numbers dropped. Give him time, he'll bounce back. Concern level: 10%.
Now, Mike Sims-Walker. He was horribly inconsistent last year and opened this season with a 0 point game before following it up with a 14 point effort. You see what I'm getting at? He'll have good games, he'll have bad ones. Is there a way to figure out when they'll be? Nope. I don't want him on my team, but that's not to say he won't put up good numbers. My concern level: 50%.
Dwayne Bowe
Bowe has the potential to be a great receiver. However, I don't think Matt Cassel has the potential to be a starting quarterback. As long as Cassel is under center, Bowe will not have good numbers. Panic button, you have been pressed. Abandon the Dwayne Bowe ship. Concern level: 100%.
Robert Meachem
He has 5 targets through two games, and only has three catches for 33 yards. It's clear that he's the 5th/6th read in the New Orleans offense. That's not someone you want on your team. Press the button, the concern level is at 100%.
Lee Evans
Evans is the definition of a big play receiver. And Buffalo is the definition of an ailing franchise. Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Evans' numbers will still be bad, I can guarantee it. If you can get something for him, do it now. Otherwise, he serves no purpose. Concern level: 100%.
Michael Crabtree
I'm not too sure what Crabtree is doing in this offense. Last night, Crabtree had 3 targets to Josh Morgan's 8, Vernon Davis' 7 and Frank Gore's 9. Crabtree is certainly talented enough to put up good numbers but Alex Smith doesn't seem to be looking to him that much (and after that week 1 performance, I can certainly understand why). I'd put him on my bench but don't go and drop him just yet. He's a great talent and has immense potential. As it stands, concern level: 55%.
Brandon Marshall
Marshall is now on a run-first team but he is still a freak of nature. He'll get his numbers, but you might have to wait a bit. Remember that he only had 6 fantasy points through his first two weeks last year as he got used to new quarterback Kyle Orton. Then he scored 4 TDs in 3 games. Concern level: 5%.
If you need to make roster cuts this week, I hope this helps. Don't give up hope on everyone just yet. There's still plenty of season left.
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