Week 13: Great Expectations

So, literally 20 minutes ago, Tim asked me a question about one of his lineups that initially seemed like a no-brainer but ended up being one of the tougher questions I've ever come across. His question:

Do I start Tom Brady or Sam Bradford?

Now, at the beginning of the year, if I was asked this, I probably would have answered with something resembling: "Are you serious? For future reference, you're meant to stop the Q-tip when you feel resistance!" Now, I'm not sure. Who would I pick?

For starters, you have to look at the matchups. Brady is at home against the Jets. Bradford is on the road at Arizona. Bradford obviously has the better matchup. Next, we'll look at the previous times that each player faced their opponent. For Brady, Week 2. He threw for 248 yards, 2 TDs, and had 3 turnovers. 11 fantasy points. For Bradford, Week 1. He had 253 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. 8 fantasy points. So now I need to make my decision. Who do I go with? both had terrible games the last times they played these opponents. Brady faces a top notch pass defense, Bradford faces a defense that can be gashed by either air or ground, so he may be handing the ball off to Steven Jackson a lot. But who do I pick?

I'd have to say Brady. He has been on fire lately and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. The only other time he has thrown an interception in a game, though? Week 2 against the Jets. Just be careful and, above all, don't get cute. Brady is the better fantasy quarterback here. He's who you want to go with. But ask me this same question again in a year or two, I'm saying Bradford.

So, from there, here's who I think Exceeds Expectations in Week 13.

Michael Vick (vs. Houston): Houston is 32nd against fantasy quarterbacks. The Eagles just lost a game in embarrassing fashion. They're gonna be angry and come out with every intention of destroying Houston. I don't know how else to say this other than GENTLEMEN, START! YOUR! EAGLES!

Kyle Orton (at Kansas City): Remember what he did last time these two teams played? Yeah, I'm liking Orton this week.

Matt Cassel (vs. Denver): But I don't think KC rolls over. Cassel is arguably the hottest QB right now and should be started by everyone. I think he finds Dwayne Bowe again. Start them both.

Josh Freeman (vs. Atlanta): Atlanta's secondary isn't that good, in all honesty. Freeman won't get you the huge numbers but if you want a consistent 15-20 points, he's your guy. He has only 2 INTs since Week 6 too. A sneaky play, if you want.

Sam Bradford (at Arizona): See above.

Darren McFadden (at San Diego): He's had two straight bad games, has missed two games, and is still the 11th overall running back! I think he bounces back this week. My reasoning? Gut call, tis all.

Matt Forte (at Detroit): He historically gashes the Lions. The Lions are starting Drew Stanton at QB. Drew Stanton is a bad QB. The Bears will get up big. The Bears will then run the ball. That's what Forte does (I would've said does best but he actually catches the ball better than he runs it). Start Forte.

Steven Jackson (at Arizona): Arizona is bad. Next!

Fred Jackson (at Minnesota): His fantasy scores the past three weeks: 26, 24, 21. Ride the hot streak!

Steve Johnson (at Minnesota): After he had the dropsies last week, I think he bounces back with a big one. He'll be fine.

Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (vs. Houston): See Michael Vick.

Terrell Owens (vs. New Orleans): Only 17 yards last week. He'll get more than that against the Saints.

Lance Moore (at Cincinnati): He's quietly put together a good fantasy season. Cincy is not a good team. I think he finds the endzone this week.

Johnny Knox (at Detroit): He's Jay Cutler's favorite target. And Detroit's secondary looked pitiful last week against the Patriots.

Malcom Floyd (vs. Oakland): No Nnamdi Asomugha. And no Vincent Jackson, most likely. Gates is hurt. Do you remember what Floyd did the last time he faced the Raiders? 8 catches, 213 yards, and a TD. To the starting lineup with you!

Tony Moeaki (at Denver): He scored last week after being held out of the previous game with a head injury. Denver's defense is not bad. Moeaki is having a pretty good rookie season. If you've been going with a tight end rotation this year, he could be a nice fill in.

Week 10: Great Expectations

Thursday night games start up again this week! I don't know about the rest of you, but I personally hate them. Mainly because I don't get the NFL Network up here. Anyway, Ravens are at the Falcons tonight. Also, unrelated, but earlier in the year I declared Terrell Owens to be no better than a #3 WR. Well, now he's the #1 WR out of everyone! If you listened to me, whoops. Anyway, here are the players I think will Exceed Expectations.

Eli Manning (vs. Dallas): Start everyone playing against Dallas! That is all.

David Garrard (vs. Houston): That rule applies to Houston as well.

Sam Bradford (at San Francisco): Will he get you 20 points? Unlikely. But he should be good for something like 15 or so. San Francisco's defense is not that good and allowed 18 points to Matt Moore in Week 7. Bradford's better than Moore.

Rashard Mendenhall (vs. New England): His carries had dropped to 15 for each of Weeks 7 and 8 before bouncing back nicely to 22 last week against Cincinnati. The Patriots just allowed 32 points to Adrian Peterson and 31 fantasy points to Peyton Hillis. All aboard the Mendenhall train!

Jahvid Best (at Buffalo): He hasn't done much of anything since he exploded in Week 2. But if there is anything a running back in a slump needs, it's a matchup with Buffalo. I also like Kevin Smith in case you're in a deep league or just have an emergency.

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Denver): I feel like I put them here every week. They're playing Denver, the worst defense against fantasy RBs. Start 'em.

Fred Jacksvon (vs. Detroit): Detroit is pretty terrible against the run. Jackson hasn't been that good this year but this looks like it'll be a good week for him.

Hakeem Nicks (vs. Dallas): START EVERYONE AGAINST DALLAS! Heck, you should be starting Steve Smith and even Mario Manningham.

Anquan Boldin (at Atlanta): He's been rather inconsistent lately but Atlanta is pretty bad against the pass. I think he schools Dunta Robinson and finds the endzone.

Dez Bryant (at New York Giants): Since Jon Kitna has taken over, he has had 23, 8, and 12 points and, in the last two games, 16 total receptions. Kitna's looking to him often and, chances are, the Cowboys will be down early and have to throw.

Braylon Edwards (at Cleveland): He's playing his old team, a team he hasn't been shy about trashing. He's gonna need to back up his words.

Mike Wallace (vs. New England): I loved him in the preseason and, since Big Ben has come back, he's been money. In four games, he has three TDs and game scores of 15, 11, 4, and 17. The Patriots' secondary is not that good. Look for Wallace to burn them deep for at least one score.

Tony Moeaki (at Denver): Denver's defense...nonexistant. Moeaki is a solid source of about 5-6 ppg. Combine the two and I think that Moeaki finds the endzone. Gut feeling, but still...

Chris Cooley (vs. Philadelphia): A rule of thumb for the past few years is Start Your Tight Ends vs. Philadelphia. Cooley is a tight end. His opponent is Philadelphia. Rules, people!

Week 9: Great Expectations

No witty blurb this time. Here are the players who I think Exceed Expectations this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Chicago): Chicago has a great pass defense...but so do the Jets and Ravens, who Fitzpatrick shredded for 20 and 29 fantasy points. I think he does it again this week. Buffalo might actually win one!

Joe Flacco (vs. Miami): He has thrown one INT since Week 3, is coming off a bye, and is playing a Miami secondary that has been porous in the past. Expect to see a lot of Boldin, Heap, Mason, and the rest of the Ravens' offense. You know what? I think Donte Stallworth finds the endzone this week.

Jay Cutler (at Buffalo): He's playing Buffalo. Get him in that lineup.

Matt Forte (at Buffalo): Read: Jay Cutler

Peyton Hillis (vs. New England): He only has one single digit game this whole year. He's coming off a bye. And he's easily the best option on the Cleveland offense. New England's rush defense isn't that good. I expect Hillis to score.

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Oakland): Keep starting both of them. They're both really good and are gonna get you a lot of points. General rule of thumb: start your RBs against Oakland.

Ryan Mathews (at Houston): Houston's defense is so bad and, even with touchdown-vulture Mike Tolbert lurking around, I think the rookie has a good game. He was my preseason pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year and, with so many injuries on that San Diego team, he's gotta do something. Right???

Shonn Greene (at Detroit): Gut call. Nothing more, nothing less.

Beanie Wells (at Minnesota): Also a gut call. I've just got a feeling.

Greg Jennings (vs. Dallas): He's been hot lately. Dallas has not.

Steve Johnson (vs. Chicago): Has a score in every week since Week 3. Dare I say start all your Bills? Nah, but I like him and Fitz this week.

Wes Welker (at Cleveland): He hasn't done much lately but there are a few things to keep in mind here. First, he's playing Cleveland. Second, he's playing Cleveland. Third, I think Bill and the Pats run up the score on Mangini. Fourth, he's playing Cleveland.

Steve Smith (at Seattle): He's not the first option in that Giants offense but he's as good of a slot receiver as they make them. I like Smith this week.

Derrick Mason (vs. Miami): I like Flacco. I like everyone on the Ravens offense this week. Mason plays on the Ravens offense. Therefore....

Benjamin Watson (vs. New England): I think he finds the endzone against his old team.

Jeremy Shockey (at Carolina): This guy is actually pretty talented. He'll get his catches.

Jacob Tamme (at Philadelphia): Peyton Manning can make anybody a fantasy starter. Tamme is Dallas Clark lite.

Week 6: What I Learned

I've been getting behind on posting so I'll just go through What I Learned from this past week before moving on to my Great Expectations for the week. However, I would like to point out that I am now 1-5 when it comes to picking games involving San Francisco. They've been killing me all year but, damn it, I still think they win the division!

1. Oh Michael Turner, where art thou? In one of my keeper leagues, I elected to keep both Michael Turner and Frank Gore in the hopes of building a very solid running back corps. I went on to draft Ryan Mathews in the 3rd, Tony Romo in the 4th, and Jermichael Finley (damn) in the 5th, before I selected a wide receiver. I was convinced that my RBs would be my strength and WRs would be my downfall. Now, six weeks in, I realized I was wrong. Show of hands, who has been annoyed by Michael Turner this year? Yep, that's what I thought. So far, he only has 1 TD and two games where he has exceeded 10 points. He is the 19th overall RB, behind Maurice Jones-Drew (also disappointing) and Mike Tolbert (who is actually a fullback!). This lead me to think: which preseason studs should you sell or which should you buy low on?
   
   For Michael Turner, I say buy low. Maurice Jones-Drew, I would try to sell. Ray Rice is actually 13th in fantasy points but, considering he was basically a top 5 pick, I say buy as low as you can. But your window is closing fast. If I have DeAngelo Williams, I'm trying to sell him for whatever I can get at this point. Cedric Benson is a buy low, I think. I have a feeling that Cincinnati will start using him a lot more. Shonn Greene would be a sell, I think, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing more action down the line. I think Ryan Mathews is a perfect buy low and I expect him to have a monster 2nd half of the season and I'm trying to get him in as many leagues as possible. Beanie Wells should be sold and, even with a rookie QB, I'm not expecting much from him for the rest of the year. I'm buying Knowshon Moreno and, with Kyle Orton's hot start, I think he puts up some decent receiving numbers for the rest of the year.
   
   
2. An Eagles resurgence under Kevin Kolb? Whoever is throwing the ball in Philadelphia will be getting it to Jeremy Maclin, but when I think Kolb will actually use him more. In the past two weeks, he has had six and seven catches for 254 yards and 2 TDs. I think he finishes the season higher than DeSean Jackson. Kolb is also a viable fantasy starter for as long as he starts in Philly. And LeSean McCoy should be starting every week.
   
   
3. Maybe a terrible week was exactly what Dwayne Bowe needed. A week after he dropped what seemed like every pass thrown to him, Dwayne Bowe reeled in six of the nine passes thrown his was for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Do I buy it? Well, he certainly has the talent to do it consistently. But I don't think he has a quarterback who will let him do it consistently. If you have Dwayne Bowe and someone offers you a trade for him, I'd say do it.
   
   
4. I am never sitting Calvin Johnson again, no matter how close to not playing he is. Flashback to Sunday morning. I'm sitting at my computer, looking at my fantasy team, debating who to start between Johnny Knox and Calvin Johnson. I ultimately went with Knox, because I thought one bad hit from the Giants secondary would knock Johnson out of the game. And, while Knox did not have a bad game by any means (5 catches for 120 yards. Granted, he did have 11 targets) and got me 12 points, Johnson had 5 for 146 and a TD, for 20 points. He has 5 TDs on the year (should have six but there was that ruling in Chicago in Week 1) and I will never bench him again. I think he finishes in the top 5 of WRs.
   
   
5. Do you remember the 2008 Denver season where they seemed to lose a running back each week? Well, I do. And I think that, on one team, I owned every single one of them at one point or another. Notable names from that list that are performing well this year: Peyton Hillis (9th overall RB and has no less than 8 points in every game this year) and Ryan Torain (starting RB in Washington and lead all RBs in points this week). I like both very much for the rest of the year and both will jump in my rankings the next time they come out.
   
   
6. Week 6: Concussionfest. Now, I've had my fair share of concussions in my life, mostly from stupid things, but I recognize how dangerous they can be. There were a bunch of concussions and helmet-to-helmet hits this past week. Todd Heap, DeSean Jackson, Josh Cribbs, and Mohamed Massaquoi were all on the receiving end on some of these hits. The only one I really thought was a cheap shot was the one on Heap. The hit on Jackson looked legal and I think it was just bad luck that both Jackson and Dunta Robinson got hurt. James Harrison's hit on Cribbs was legal and his one on Massaquoi...I don't know. It didn't look illegal but I heard the rule about it. The rule says that if a player has made the catch but hasn't had time to defend himself (caught the ball but hasn't turned to move and defend himself), the defender cannot explode into and upward on the hit and that's what Harrison did. I don't like it, but it is the rule. Any fantasy implications here? None, other than you won't be seeing Jackson or Massaquoi this week.
   
   
7. Bye bye, Dallas Clark. So, in the two leagues that I care the most about, my tight ends were Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark. Damn, damn, damn! Both are now on Injured Reserve and are out for the rest of the year. So, from now on, when I draft a league that I care about, I will post my tight ends and you will know which tight ends not to draft.
   
   
8. Colt McCoy...future fantasy stud? Browns' rookie QB, Colt McCoy (who was not supposed to play this year), got his first start against the tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense this past week, thanks to injuries to Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. And he looked pretty good. Here are his numbers: 23/33 for 281 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and 4 carries for 22 yards. Sure, it was only 13 fantasy points but that is actually the most that the Steelers defense has allowed to an opposing QB this year. I think McCoy's gonna be good. Keep an eye on him.

Week 7's Great Expectations should be up later today.

Week 6: Predictions and Great Expectations

Okay, couple of things. First, I obviously didn't get to do my Great Expectations for Week 6. And, since I'm low on time, I won't be able to give any reasoning for my picks. Just know that these are the players who I think have a great Week 6.

• Vince Young (at Jacksonville)
• Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland)
• Alex Smith (vs. Oakland)
• Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. Detroit)
• Ryan Torain (vs. Indianapolis)
• Jamaal Charles (at Houston)
• Michael Bush (at San Francisco)
• Malcom Floyd (at St. Louis)
• Kenny Britt and Nate Washington (at Jacksonville)
• Mike Wallace (vs. Cleveland)
• Steve Smith (vs. Detroit)
• Davone Bess (at Green Bay)
• Zach Miller (at San Francisco)
• Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland)
• Brent Celek (vs. Atlanta)
• Tony Moeaki (at Houston)

Sorry for the delay but I've been rather busy this week. Okay, on to our predictions!

Season Standings:

Tim: 40-36 (7-7)

Dan: 36-40(4-10)

Yes, it was a bad week for me. The upsets that I gambled on didn't turn out and the ones that I didn't ended up winning. Phooey. Oh well, Tim has a four win lead on me. Here are our predictions for Week 6.

Seattle at Chicago

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Chicago

Miami at Green Bay

Tim: Miami

Dan: Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

San Diego at St. Louis

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Detroit at New York Giants

Tim: New York Giants

Dan: New York Giants

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Tim: Philadelphia

Dan: Atlanta

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Kansas City at Houston

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New York Jets at Denver

Tim: Denver

Dan: New York Jets

Oakland at San Francisco

Tim: Oakland

Dan: San Francisco (Dammit, why do I keep picking these guys???)

Dallas at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Dallas

Indianapolis at Washington

Tim: Washington

Dan: Indianapolis

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

We have six games picked differently this week. Let's see what happens!

Story Lines of the Week

• Baltimore travels to New England in a rematch of the first round of the 2009 playoffs.
• Dallas visits Minnesota in the battle of the disappointing, 1-win teams.
• Alex Smith plays for his job as the 0-5 49ers take on Jason Campell and the 2-3 Raiders.
• It's the battle of the running backs on Monday Night as Chris Johnson's Titans take on Maurice Jones-Drew's Jaguars.
• Kyle Orton looks to continue his hot start and pick up a win against Mark Sanchez and the 4-1 Jets.
• Rookie QB Colt McCoy gets his first career start as Big Ben returns from suspension in Pittsburgh.
• The Falcons and the Eagles square off in the Battle of the Birds. Will Michael Vick play against his old team?
• Newly acquired Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks visit the Bears as Jay Cutler returns from injury.

Week 5: What I Learned

San Francisco. San Francisco. God dammit, San Francisco. Back in the preseason, here is the first two lines that I wrote when Tim and I were doing our preseason predictions for the NFC West:

"I'm probably too high on San Francisco this year but I don't care. I think this is the year they put it all together."

Oops. Well, I was right, in a sense. I was too high on San Francisco. Waaaay too high. I had them pegged at 13-3, Tim at 10-6. Both of us had them finishing 1st in the division. Am I ready to go back on my word? No! I still think they win the division! You heard me. And it's not out of faith in San Francisco but a complete lack of faith in everybody else in the division. Arizona leads the division at 3-2 and I actually think they're the worst team. So far, they've been outscored by 50 points. How are they over .500?! Seattle is going to be horribly inconsistent for the rest of the year and they haven't actually played that well this year. And St. Louis actually looks like the best bet to unseat San Francisco as the best team. But I don't think they will. I'm still picking San Francisco to win the NFC West!

Fun Fact: I've picked SF to win every game this year. I've been wrong each time.

Alright, here's what I learned from Week 5.

1. Thank you, thank you, thank you Malcom Floyd! All preseason, I was saying how high I was on Malcom Floyd. I have him in practically all of my leagues, and I was often taking him in late rounds, simply because people had no idea who he was. But Floyd has been fantastic this year, and is now the #4 wide receiver, thanks to his 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD game against Oakland. I don't think he slows down. But the best part? Oakland has probably the best pass defense he's faced all year. Someone asked me if Floyd is a sell high? No, he's for real.

2. Actually, who saw these top 4 WRs coming? In order, these are the top four scoring wide receivers, in order. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, Austin Collie, Malcom Floyd. Their average rounds drafter? 8th, undrafted, 13th, 9th. Ride the fantasy studs! I think they keep it up. If anybody were to fall out of this group, it would probably be Collie, simply because there are too many other targets in that Colts offense.

3. Another week, another score. Non-QBs who have scored in every week: Peyton Hillis, Antonio Gates. That's it. Hillis didn't have a rushing TD this week but had a nifty catch and made it in for the score. And Gates...what hasn't been said about him? He's a beast. Plain and simple. To put this in perspective, if I had Gates and somebody were to offer me Andre Johnson for him, at this point in the year, I don't think I could accept that deal. He's been that good.

4. God damn it, those injuries! Big fantasy injuries this week. Mark Clayton, who was making a case for Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, is now done for the year. Jermichael Finley, one of the top tight ends in the league, has a torn meniscus and is expected to be out for anywhere from 8 weeks to the whole season (I had him in a bunch of leagues. Damn it!). Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in garbage time last week (why was he on the field???) and is currently listed as questionable for this week's game against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers got hit and received a concussion on the Packers' last offensive play. He's questionable as well.

5. I've been calling for Ryan Mathews to have a big week for the past two weeks. He looked healthy last week and had 9 carries for 59 yards (9 carries for 55 and a TD the week before) and Mike Tolbert looked awful. 12 carries for 11 yards and a goal line fumble. This week is the week of Mathews (I will say that until it happens)!

6. Greg Jennings vs. Donald Driver. Look at the numbers. Driver has 25 catches for 376 yards and 3 TDs on 34 targets while Jennings has 14 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs on 31 targets. Driver has the better numbers. Driver is the better fantasy play. And, with Finley now out for a significant period of time, expect Driver to get more of his targets. If you can sell high on Jennings, I'd say do it.

7. Here's another one: Chad Ochocinco vs. Terrell Owens. Their numbers: Owens has 31 catches for 476 yards and 2 TDs on 61 targets. Ochocinco has 26 catches for 316 yards and 1 TD on 44 targets. I'm picking Owens. Ocho actually has one more point than Greg Jennings.

8. Ben Roethlisberger comes back this week. Hide your women! With the return of Big Ben, the entire Steelers offense will get a boost and, as a result, so will fantasy players. Mike Wallace is the one who actually gets the biggest boost since he can now get deep balls. I also think Heath Miller's stock rises considerably. Ben looks to him a lot and, if you just lost Jermichael Finley, Miller could be a good fill in.

Just a Clarification: Who Are the Must Starts?

Every week, when I do my list of players who I think will Exceed Expectations, I deliberately leave a group of players off that list because I consider them 'Must Starts' and should be in your starting lineup, regardless of who they are playing. So, these players are as follows:

Quarterbacks

• Peyton Manning
• Aaron Rodgers
• Drew Brees
• Philip Rivers
• Tony Romo
• Tom Brady

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Matt Schaub: Yes, he was great last season. And yes, he is throwing to Andre Johnson. But, while at the beginning of the year I would've had him on this list, he hasn't looked that good this year.
• Kyle Orton: Biggest surprise in fantasy? Kyle Orton. He's been on fire all year and just scored 20 points against the Baltimore Ravens defense, the best defense against fantasy QBs. I don't have him on the list because I am still very slightly worried about his consistency but it's damned close. If you have him, you start him but that's unless you have one of the six QBs mentioned above.
  

Running Backs

• Adrian Peterson
• Chris Johnson
• Frank Gore
• Arian Foster
• Ray Rice
• Rashard Mendenhall
• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Michael Turner
• Steven Jackson

Names that are omitted from the list:

• LeSean McCoy: Durability issues and the lack of 20+ carries are the only things keeping me from putting him on the list. He has four double digit games in five weeks, but has yet to exceed 18 carries. But he's close. Damned close.
• Jahvid Best: Through two weeks, he had 55 points. Since then, 18 points with no double digit games. Consistency please?
• Peyton Hillis: I want to put him on the list. I really do. But I can't because, well, it's the Browns and they're bad. But he's their only option there and has scored in every week this year. He's another one who is just off the list.
• Cedric Benson: I don't trust the Bengals. He's been getting insane amounts of carries but hasn't really done much with them. He'll have good games and he'll have mediocre games. But I don't think he's a must start anymore.
• DeAngelo Williams: He has one double digit game so far this year. Not what you want for a 1st round pick. It's not his fault but Carolina is terrible and they don't seem to be getting better. But Williams is nowhere near my top RBs (I have him at 18th overall and I actually think that's too high).
• Matt Forte: He get's all of the touches but he doesn't seem to run well. The only thing keeping him alive is that he get's a bunch of opportunities. But by no means a must start.

Wide Receivers

• Andre Johnson
• Miles Austin
• Reggie Wayne
• Roddy White
• Randy Moss
• Calvin Johnson
• Brandon Marshall
• Wes Welker
• Anquan Boldin
• Hakeem Nicks

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Larry Fitzgerald: One of the most talented receivers in the league, yes. But his highest weekly total has been 10. It isn't his fault that his QBs are terrible but you have to play the cards you are dealt. I have Fitz ranked at 18 behind Hines Ward (again, I think it's too high).
• Greg Jennings: Last year, he was getting the yards but not the TDs. This year, he's getting the TDs but not the yards. He has gone the past four weeks without eclipsing 40 yards. It seems that Rodgers looks to Driver and Finley before him, for some reason.
• Marques Colston: Hasn't played up to his draft position. At all. I'm very down on Colston (I'm thinking his 24th ranking for the rest of the year is too high).
• Malcom Floyd: I was insanely high on him before the year and after this week's 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD effort (27 points), I am sitting back and grinning. He is on the cusp of must start.

Tight Ends

• Antonio Gates
• Dallas Clark
• Jermichael Finley (Is injured and out at least 3 weeks. Obviously, don't start him then)

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Dustin Keller: This isn't so much as my lack of faith in Keller but my lack of faith in Sanchez. I don't think he keeps up this pace for very long.
• Vernon Davis: Take what I said for Keller and replace 'Sanchez' with 'Smith.'
• Tony Gonzalez: Out of five games, he has gone over 50 yards just once. Roddy White is the clear go-to guy in Atlanta and Ryan hasn't looked to Gonzalez nearly as much.

Week 5: Great Expectations

I'm going to use this space to vent some of my fantasy frustration that I built up in the past week. In one of my main leagues, a fairly deep 10 team league, that starts a QB, two RBs, one RB/WR flex, three WRs, a TE, D/ST, and K, I was debating between two spots: one was my flex spot and the other was my 3rd wide receiver.

For a flex, I was trying to decide between either Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Justin Forsett. I wound up going with Mathews because he was said to be healthy and, in theory, the starter, which pushed him ahead of Tolbert on the depth chart, and that he had the potential for a bigger game against a terrible Arizona defense. Mathews ended up having a mediocre game (12 points), which was better than Forsett (7 points) but worse than Tolbert (16). I still think I made the right call and think that Mathews ends up exceeding expectations this week (see below).

And, in the other spot, I had to choose between Terrell Owens and Johnny Knox. Owens had been consistent but unspectacular through three weeks, posting games of 5, 5, and 4 points. Knox, on the other hand, had been seeming to develop good chemistry with Jay Cutler and had games of 5, 8, and 9 points. I looked at the numbers and decided to go with Knox. And, naturally, Cutler gets hurt and helps get Knox his worst game of the year with 2 points. Owens, meanwhile, goes bonkers for 28 points, his best game since Week 11 of 2007 (8 catches, 173 yards, 4 TDs). I would go on to lose my fantasy game by 5 points. Okay, venting over. Here's who I think Exceeds Expectations this week.

Eli Manning (at Houston)

Houston's secondary is bad. It's so bad, it should be called a tertiary. It's so bad, I think that myself and a group of my friends could play against them and we could wind up as a fantasy flex play. This is a secondary that is 31st in terms of defense of fantasy quarterbacks. Last week, Bruce Gradkowski had a 14 point game against them. Teams have thrown at least 30 times against them every game this year, which means that teams know their weakness. Interestingly, Dallas was the team that threw the least. How often will you see that happening? Anyway, Eli plays Houston this week. Eli is better than Bruce Gradkowski. Eli has alternated his good games with bad ones. Eli had a bad one last week. Eli's due. Eli's a top 10 QB this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Jacksonville)

In a mood to gamble? Why not try Fitz? Jacksonville is dead last in terms of defense against fantasy QBs, allowing an average of almost 22 ppg to the QB. Fitz has 2 TDs in each of the past two weeks, including last week against a very good Jets secondary. Fitz has the potential for a decent fantasy day in what could wind up being the ugliest game of the weekend.

Joe Flacco (vs. Denver)

Another QB playing a lower tier fantasy QB defense. The Broncos rank 30th against fantasy QBs and Flacco looked very good against the Steelers last week. He should be a top 10 option this week.

Peyton Hillis (vs. Atlanta)

Keeping that streak alive, Hillis scored another TD last week, giving him four on the year, one in each game. He's the guy to own on the Browns (the only one) and, most importantly, is the only running back getting touches. He's a must start. That's right, a must start. And, who knows, might wind up being a top 10 back by the end of the year. Wow, who would've thought that out of that Arkansas backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis that it would be Hillis who was the most valuable fantasy player?

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Indianapolis)

Now, if I actually had to choose, I think I'd end up starting Jones over Charles. Charles has more upside but, in three games, Jones has 52 carries to Charles' 34. I don't know why he's getting so many more, but he is and we need to accept that. But note that Charles is averaging 7 ypc to Jones' 4.2. I think both are capable of being fantasy starters but I have Jones over Charles. In the long run, however, I think Charles overtakes Jones. For now, however, you have to play the cards you're dealt. The Colts are 26th against fantasy running backs so feel free to start each of them.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at Oakland)

They're playing Oakland. Need I say more?

Beanie Wells (vs. New Orleans)

Last week, Wells complained about not getting enough carries (he had 5 for 19 yards) and his lack of involvement in the offense. With the team's switch to Max Hall at QB, I think this winds up being the game where they rely on the running game the most. I'm expecting a good game from Beanie (or at least a lot of carries).

Terrell Owens (vs. Tampa Bay)

Fun fact: T.O. has the second most targets of any wide receiver (after Roddy White). And, thanks to last week's performance, is 4th in yards among wide receivers. He had a long TD last year against Atlanta and I expect him to burn a Tampa corner deep at one point or another this week. Even if he doesn't he gets more targets than he probably should and, at this point, is a potential fantasy starter.

Donald Driver (at Washington)

He has TDs in three out of four games this year and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With Green Bay's run game being, as ESPN's Matthew Berry put it, Aaron Rodgers bootlegs and quick screens, Driver should be serviceable for the rest of the year as a fantasy starter. There are simply too many weapons on that offense for defenses to contain. And Driver has been reaping the benefits.

Hakeem Nicks (at Houston)

Read what I said about Eli Manning. And who do you think he's gonna be throwing to?

Percy Harvin (at New York Jets)

Newly acquired Randy Moss lets Harvin go back to the position he is best suited for: slot receiver. He'll be like Wes Welker was with the Patriots when Moss was there. I wouldn't go and start him this week but I would definitely pick him up if I could or buy low if someone is willing to part with him. I expect him to have a good rest of the season.

Marques Colston (at Arizona)

Dammit, I said it last week and I'll say it again! He's gotta break out one of these weeks!

Dez Bryant and Roy Williams (vs. Tennessee)

Kyle Orton just proved that you can throw all over Tennessee. And did you know that Bryant and Williams each have the same amount of targets? That's right, 20 each. Bryant leads in receptions but Williams leads in yards and TDs. Yes, both take a backseat to Austin, but each have produced so far this year. You can do much worse.

Santonio Holmes (vs. Minnesota)

I don't know, call it a gut feeling, but I think that Sanchez winds up looking for him a lot. I wouldn't start him this week but keep an eye on him and see how he does.

Greg Olsen (at Carolina)

Jay Cutler isn't starting and I have a feeling that he winds up being Todd Collins' security blanket and gets a lot of checkdowns. Again, just a gut feeling.

Dustin Keller (vs. Minnesota)

5 TDs in three weeks. Yeah, I'm a believer. I'd say he's a must start tight end.

Brent Celek (at San Francisco)

Kevin Kolb is starting again and, if you watched the game last week, you noticed that he seemed to check down to his tight ends and running backs on just about every single play. And, when they got to the red zone, who did he look for? Yep. Celek.

I've learned from my mistake last week and am starting T.O. Watch Knox go off with Collins under center...

Fantasy Rankings Update #1

I'm going to try and update my fantasy rankings once every four weeks. So, the format will be:

Name (Team) [Previous Ranking]

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning (IND) [3]
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB) [1]
3. Drew Brees (NO) [2]
4. Philip Rivers (SD) [7]
5. Tony Romo (DAL) [6]
6. Tom Brady (NE) [5]
7. Matt Schaub (HOU) [4]
8. Kyle Orton (DEN) [22]
9. Jay Cutler (CHI) [10]
10. Joe Flacco (BAL) [9]
11. Matt Ryan (ATL) [16]
12. Brett Favre (MIN) [8]
13. Eli Manning (NYG) [15]
14. Donovan McNabb (WAS) [13]
15. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) [19]
16. Michael Vick (PHI) [Unranked]
17. Chad Henne (MIA) [11]
18. Sam Bradford (STL) [30]
19. Mark Sanchez (NYJ) [27]
20. Carson Palmer (CIN) [12]
21. Josh Freeman (TB) [28]
22. Alex Smith (SF) [17]
23. Vince Young (TEN) [18]
24. Kevin Kolb (PHI) [14]
25. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) [23]
26. Matthew Stafford (DET) [20]
27. David Garrard (JAC) [21]
28. Bruce Gradkowski (OAK) [Unranked]
29. Matt Cassel (KC) [29]
30. Jake Delhomme (CLE) [24]
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) [Unranked]
32. Jimmy Clausen (CAR) [Unranked]
33. Max Hall (ARI) [Unranked]

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN) [2]
2. Chris Johnson (TEN) [1]
3. Frank Gore (SF) [5]
4. Arian Foster (HOU) [24]
5. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) [13]
6. Ray Rice (BAL) [3]
7. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) [4]
8. Michael Turner (ATL) [6]
9. Steven Jackson (STL) [7]
10. LeSean McCoy (PHI) [19]
11. Cedric Benson (CIN) [8]
12. Jamaal Charles (KC) [17]
13. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ) [43]
14. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) [26]
15. Jahvid Best (DET) [33]
16. Daarren McFadden (OAK) [36]
17. Pierre Thomas (NO) [18]
18. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) [11]
19. Ryan Mathews (SD) [12]
20. Peyton Hillis (CLE) [Unranked]
21. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) [49]
22. Shonn Greene (NYJ) [10]
23. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) [16]
24. Beanie Wells (ARI) [14]
25. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) [15]
26. Ronnie Brown (MIA) [23]
27. Thomas Jones (KC) [30]
28. Marion Barber (DAL) [35]
29. Joseph Addai (IND) [22]
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) [Unranked]
31. Ricky Williams (MIA) [25]
32. Fred Jackson (BUF) [37]
33. Ryan Torain (WAS) [Unranked]
34. Cadillac Williams (TB) [40]
35. John Kuhn (GB) [Unranked]
36. Mike Tolbert (SD) [Unranked]
37. Justin Forsett (SEA) [21]
38. Clinton Portis (WAS) [29]
39. Donald Brown (IND) [39]
40. Felix Jones (DAL) [28]
41. Jason Snelling (ATL) [Unranked]
42. LeGarrette Blount (TB) [Unranked]
43. Bernard Scott (CIN) [Unranked]
44. C.J. Spiller (BUF) [27]
45. Michael Bush (OAK) [46]
46. Tim Hightower (ATL) [48]
47. Willis McGahee (BAL) [34]
48. Brandon Jacobs (NYG) [38]
49. Reggie Bush (NO) [32]
50. Correll Buckhalter (DEN) [Unranked]

Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson (HOU) [1]
2. Reggie Wayne (IND) [3]
3. Roddy White (ATL) [4]
4. Miles Austin (DAL) [8]
5. Randy Moss (MIN) [2]
6. Calvin Johnson (DET) [7]
7. Brandon Marshall (MIA) [5]
8. DeSean Jackson (PHI) [11]
9. Anquan Boldin (BAL) [13]
10. Wes Welker (NE) [17]
11. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) [21]
12. Greg Jennings (GB) [9]
13. Austin Collie (IND) [42]
14. Malcom Floyd (SD) [37]
15. Donald Driver (GB) [16]
16. Mike Wallace (PIT) [22]
17. Hines Ward (PIT) [19]
18. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) [6]
19. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) [20]
20. Chad Ochocinco (CIN) [14]
21. Mark Clayton (STL) [Unranked]
22. Santonio Holmes (NYJ) [30]
23. Santana Moss (WAS) [27]
24. Marques Colston (NO) [10]
25. Terrell Owens (CIN) [31]
26. Percy Harvin (MIN) [26]
27. Dez Bryant (DAL) [39]
28. Steve Smith (CAR) [12]
29. Brandon Lloyd (DEN) [Unranked]
30. Kevin Walter (HOU) [44]
31. Johnny Knox (CHI) [36]
32. Michael Crabtree (SF) [15]
33. Eddie Royal (DEN) [Unranked]
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ) [41]
35. Louis Murphy (OAK) [Unranked]
36. Derrick Mason (BAL) [32]
37. Dwayne Bowe (KC) [24]
38. Steve Smith (NYG) [18]
39. Mario Manningham (NYG) [Unranked]
40. Legedu Naanee (SD) [Unranked]
41. Roy Williams (DAL) [Unranked]
42. Kenny Britt (TEN) [38]
43. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) [23]
44. Jacoby Jones (HOU) [47]
45. Lee Evans (BUF) [34]
46. Nate Washington (TEN) [Unranked]
47. Dexter McCluster (KC) [Unranked]
48. Lance Moore (NO) [Unranked]
49. Mike Thomas (JAC) [Unranked]
50. Josh Cribbs (CLE) [Unranked]

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates (SD) [2]
2. Dallas Clark (IND) [1]
3. Jermichael Finley (GB) [4]
4. Dustin Keller (NYJ) [15]
5. Vernon Davis (SF) [3]
6. Tony Gonzalez (ATL) [6]
7. Chris Cooley (WAS) [11]
8. Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN) [12]
9. Zach Miller (OAK) [10]
10. Aaron Hernandez (NE) [26]
11. Greg Olsen (CHI) [18]
12. Jeremy Shockey (NO) [17]
13. Jason Witten (DAL) [7]
14. Kellen Winslow (TB) [8]
15. Tony Moeaki (KC) [Unranked]
16. Todd Heap (BAL) [19]
17. Brent Celek (PHI) [5]
18. Heath Miller (PIT) [13]
19. Owen Daniels (HOU) [9]
20. John Carlson (SEA) [14]
21. Benjamin Watson (CLE) [24]
22. Brandon Pettigrew (DET) [28]
23. Marcedes Lewis (JAC) [21]
24. David Thomas (NO) [30]
25. Rob Gronkowski (NE) [31]
26. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) [23]
27. Bo Scaife (TEN) [22]
28. Tony Scheffler (DET) [27]
29. Kevin Boss (NYG) [16]
30. Evan Moore (CLE) [Unranked]

Suspensions Lifted

It's not often that I take a look at fantasy options, but the free agent acquisitions of three key suspended players can turn some 1-3 or 0-4 teams around.

In New York, the Jets get back WR Santonio Holmes, who should continue adding to Mark Sanchez's growth in his second year as the starting quarterback. Holmes gives the Jets a true No. 1 receiver, and will be far more consistent than Braylon Edwards. Be prepared, opposing defenses.

In Pittsburgh, embattled QB Ben Roethlisberger is back among the team, though Week 5 is their bye. The Steelers played well without him, but having back Big Ben allows WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward to have more value in fantasy leagues, as well as bringing RB Rashard Mendenhall's value up as a viable checkdown option, and an effective power-runner.

And, if you play with a D-player in your league, 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing returns to the Houston Texans this week after a 4-week suspension. The Texans have sorely missed their young play-maker, and he's going to be hungry to prove his worth after the debacle regarding performance-enhancing drugs that nearly cost him his DROY award.

Otherwise, in fantasy, we may see some extra juice out of the Vikings with the acquisition of Randy Moss, who can help Favre's numbers, and draw men out of the box to further help AP.

Week 4: What I Learned

We're a quarter of the way through the season and there is only one team left undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs? Yep, everyone who predicted that one, raise your hand. What, nobody? Todd Haley? No, not even you? Anyway, with the last undefeated team not playing this week, here's what I learned.

1. The unexpected top scorer of the week was...the Patriots D/ST? Yep, the leading points scorer for the week was the Patriots D/ST, thanks to 4 INTs, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, 2 sacks, and 3 TDs, including one kick return. Do they keep it up? I doubt it. I think they're much more of a matchup play, and an iffy one at that. In two weeks this year, they have gotten 49 fantasy points, more than Tony Romo, Roddy White, Dallas Clark, and DeSean Jackson, to name a few. Those games were against Cincinnati (16 pts) and, of course, yesterday against Miami (33 pts). However, in the other two, they managed a grand total of 0 points (-1 against the Jets and 1 against the Bills). My verdict: don't buy into the Pats but if you can sell high, go right ahead.
   
   
2. I think the NFL Fountain of Youth has been discovered. The number 3 and 4 scorers for the week, out of everybody, were Terrell Owens (28) and LaDainian Tomlinson (27), who looked like their 3-years-ago selves. T.O. had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in a loss to the Browns and L.T. (I love these two letter nicknames) who had 19 carries for 133 yards and a TD, as well as 3 catches for 22 yards. Now, the big question on fantasy owners' minds is "Can they keep it up?" I think L.T. can and T.O. might, but that's a very questionable might. L.T. is the clear top RB in New York and, as a result, is the 9th RB overall right now. I think he winds up just outside the top 10 but in the top 15. T.O., on the other hand, looks to be consistent, but more in the 5-6 points per game. He will have these big games every now and then but, for the most part, will be a #3 fantasy receiver. I am proud to say that in my league that starts 3 WRs, I decided to start Johnny Knox over T.O. That wound up being a 26 point difference. I went on to lose by 5. Damn it all.
   
   
3. Arian Foster, top 10 running back. That's four weeks and four double digit games for a guy who went in the 5th-6th round in most drafts. Also, he has three 100 yard games out of four total. Do you know who else has three 100 yard games? Nobody. Prediction: Foster finishes as a top 10 RB, and I might go as far to say in the top 5.
   
   
4. The top pass catcher, out of WRs and TEs, is...Antonio Gates. Yep, Gates has the most points out of all WRs and TEs so far this year. And his stats are crazy. He's scored in every game, has no less than 5 catches in any week, has two 100 yard games in a row, and has caught 24 of the 34 balls thrown his way. So far, he has 24 catches for 386 yards and 6 TDs. For those of you doing the math, he catches a TD once in every four receptions. I doubt he keeps this hot streak up all year but ride him if you've got him.
   
   
5. Let's not forget the third overall pass catcher...Dustin Keller? What has gotten into these tight ends? Okay, for reference, out of tight ends and wide receivers, here are the top four scorers so far.
   1. Antonio Gates
   2. Austin Collie
   3. Dustin Keller (tie)
   3. Reggie Wayne (tie)
   After getting smacked by Ray Lewis and then stepping out of bounds 1 yard short of the first down in Week 1 against the Ravens, Keller has exploded for 17 point, 21 point, and 14 point games in three straight weeks, scoring 5 TDs and catching 17 balls for 241 yards. I had him as my 15th tight end overall in the preseason. Consider him a top 10 option from here on out.
   
   
6. An odd assortment of the top 5 QBs for the week. There were only 5 QBs to score over 20 points this week. In order, they were David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Manning is a stud and must start every week. No more to say about him. Kyle Orton has now scored 20+ points in three straight weeks and is currently the 4th best QB. I think he's legit. Shaun Hill did what every Lions QB needs to do: get the ball to Calvin Johnson, who had 6 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs on 11 targets. I think he actually needs to get the ball more. He could be a decent bye week fill in, depending on the matchup. Fitzpatrick now has 2 TDs in two straight weeks after being declared the starter. He could also be a bye week filler in deeper leagues. Honestly, the only one I'm not buying is the guy who lead all QBs in points this week: David Garrard. I think this was the perfect definition of a fluke. I still couldn't bring myself to start him.
   
   
7. Injuries, injuries, injuries. A bunch of big names either got injured or were limited by injuries this week.
   
   Heading the list is Michael Vick, who is week-to-week with rib cartilage damage. Kevin Kolb starts while he's out and, honestly, who knows what's going to happen with the QB situation in Philly.
   
   Darren McFadden injured his hamstring in the 3rd quarter against Houston and did not return. He's said to be day to day. If he were to miss time, Michael Bush would get the start. McFadden actually has double digit points every week this week.
   
   Ahmad Bradshaw came up limping after a play in the fourth quarter. He will probably be limited this week in practice but should be back for next week. Expect Brandon Jacobs to see more carries this week.
   
   Clinton Portis says he will probably not play this week against Green Bay. Ryan Torain looks to be the primary back while he is out. Torain looked good against Philadelphia with 18 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He's a must-add, if he hasn't been already.
   
   LeSean McCoy is out indefinitely with a fractured rib. McCoy has been a top 5 RB so far this year so this is a big blow. Mike Bell will likely start in his place.
   
   Ryan Mathews was said to be healthy but Norv Turner insisted on keeping Mike Tolbert as the primary back. Mathews still managed a TD to save his fantasy day but Turner says that Mathews will be the primary back moving forward and was being eased back. He has Oakland this week. No worries.
   
   Ray Rice didn't get the start against Pittsburgh but after Willis McGahee went down with an injury, Rice got some carries. McGahee says he'll be back this week and Rice has said that he felt no problems with his knee. No worries.
   
   Andre Johnson didn't play this week and is still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's a top option. If he doesn't, well, then he's not.
   
   Jay Cutler suffered a concussion and did not return to action Sunday night against the Giants. But not before he turned in a 42 yard, 4 turnover performance. Fantasy owners were not pleased. He is expected to play against the Panthers this week but be sure to monitor his performance throughout the week.
   
   
8. Okay, I am now officially wrong about the 49ers. They are now 0-4 and my 13-3 preseason prediction is gone. So far, they've played two good games and two terrible games. As of now, I think Frank Gore is the only 49er who you can start with confidence every week, but Vernon Davis should be a top 10 tight end by the end of the year. They can't be this bad all year, can they? Can they????
   
   
9. Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand? Oh, to take down the Steelers. It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day (12 pts) but it showed that he can beat the top tier teams, something that he was being criticized heavily for all year. I expect him to keep getting better and finish in the top 10-top 15 QBs.

The Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks are on byes this week. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, and Brian Cushing all return from suspensions. Kansas City looks to remain undefeated but have the Colts and Texans in the next two weeks.

Also, the Bills have just traded running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 pick. The Seahawks are said to release RB Julius Jones. This hurts Justin Forsett's value and we'll look at how their running game looks in two weeks when they play the Bears.

Week 4: Great Expectations

This would've been up earlier if it wasn't for me getting swamped with homework this week. Anyway, I was almost completely wrong with my predictions from last week, getting only Darren McFadden and Tony Romo right. Not a good week. 2/10. Anyway, here are the players that I think wind up exceeding expectations for week 4. With four teams on a bye (Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, and Buccaneers), some of you might be looking for fill in starters. Hopefully, this helps.

Chad Henne (vs. New England)

Last week, Henne showed us why many had him projected as a big sleeper for 2010. He threw for 363 yards and 2 TDs against a very capable Jets pass defense (albeit, without Darrelle Revis) on his way to a 20 fantasy point game. This week, he draws the Patriots, who are 26th in terms of opposing quarterback fantasy points. They've given up 19, 22, and 14 points in the first three weeks of the year. And I don't see anybody in that secondary who can match up with Brandon Marshall. If you have Romo and are looking for a substitute, you could do a whole lot worse than Henne.

Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler is the 5th fantasy QB this year and is playing the Giants, who are 10th against opposing QBs in fantasy points. But those stats about the Giants D are kinda misleading. In week 1, they played Carolina and, let's face it, Carolina's QB situation is in shambles. Next, they faced Peyton Manning and got lit up. In week 3, they played against Vince Young, who only needed to throw it 16 times in a win. I see Cutler as being closer to Manning than Young or Moore/Clausen and the Giants looked terrible last week. I don't see them getting much better. Cutler looks good to go.

Michael Vick (vs. Washington)

Comeback player of the year? If you were lucky enough to nab the #2 fantasy quarterback in free agency (or if you drafted him, more power to you), ride the train as long as you can. He's been phenomenal this year and now draws the Redskins' 26th ranked fantasy QB defense. Vick's a must start from here on out. Woof.

Arian Foster (at Oakland)

After exploding for 41 points in week 1, Foster has managed only 12 and 10 points in weeks 2 and 3. I say only because, well, he set the bar really high with his week 1 performance. Now he faces an Oakland defense that has given up an average of 21 ppg to fantasy running backs. Yeah, I'd say start him.

Darren McFadden (vs. Houston)

I had him on this list last week and I'll put him here again. He's finally a feature back this year! And he's looked the part too. If Oakland wants to have any shot against the Texans, they're gonna need to use this guy. He's the biggest playmaker on the team and I'd be shocked if Houston gets beat through the air by Bruce Gradkowski. I'd say McFadden's just about a must start at this point. Of course, that could change at the drop of a hat (or an Al Davis).

Justin Forsett (at St. Louis)

If you are a Forsett owner and saw his stats from last week, you probably were breathing a sigh of relief. He finally got all of the carries and Pete Carroll stopped using Julius Jones and let Leon Washington do his kick returns. Now he gets St. Louis which, if you remember the rule from last year, "If you're player is going up against St. Louis, you start him." Yes, I'm a bit hesitant because I want to see him in the feature back role for two weeks in a row but, again, with bye weeks, go right ahead.

Ryan Mathews (vs. Arizona)

He was inactive last week with an ankle injury but all signs point to go for this week. Arizona is 29th against fantasy running backs and Mathews is better than your average running back. Just make sure he's active. He should be, but just be positive.

Mark Clayton (vs. Seattle)

Who would've guessed that St. Louis was just what Marky Mark needed? Through three games, he's the 13 best receiver in fantasy. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. Bradford looks to him early and often and Clayton catches about two thirds of the passes thrown his way. Seattle allows the 25th most points to fantasy receivers and Clayton's performance through three games makes him a solid #2 receiver.

Johnny Knox (at New York Giants)

I mentioned Jay Cutler above and Knox is his preferred target. He's a deep threat and has seen his numbers improve each game this year. I think he finds the end zone this week on a deep ball. He's due.

Kevin Walter (at Oakland)

Three receivers have scored in every game this year. They are Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Walter, the numbers 1, 5, and 7 fantasy receivers respectively. I expect Nnamdi Asomugha to be on Andre Johnson this week and for Walter to get open and extend his streak to four games.

Jeremy Maclin (vs. Washington)

He's got Kevin Walter numbers but better. And you already know what I think about Vick. Start him.

Marques Colston (vs. Carolina)

He's gotta break out one of these weeks, right? Right???

Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

Finley is the fourth tight end in fantasy and has yet to score a TD. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? Tight ends don't get yards, they get TDs! But Finley, who has been targeted 21 times, has caught 17 of them, for an 81% completion percentage. He's gotta find the end zone one of these weeks and, when he does, his numbers will be crazy. Start him until further notice.

Jeremy Shockey (vs. Carolina)

He had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD last week and looked like the tight end the Saints wanted when they acquired him. Carolina doesn't give up that many points to tight ends but I think Shockey does well this week. With Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Visanthe Shiancoe on a bye this week, Shockey's a more than capable fill in.

I hope to get my Do Not Want list up tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your fantasies.

Week 3: What I Learned From Sunday

We're three weeks in and we're starting to get an idea of how things will develop from here on out. This is also around the time where I learn how good my predictions were (or how horribly wrong I was). With that being said, here's what I learned from the third Sunday of the year.

1. There were more unexpected big scorers this week. Last week, I mentioned how there will always be the unexpected big scorer. While nobody broke 40 points this week, that isn't to say that there weren't any surprises. For that, I want to look at the wide receivers that scored in the top 5 this week. They were, in order, Anquan Boldin (32), Austin Collie (29), Lance Moore (26), Roy Williams (23), Brandon Lloyd (22), Brandon Marshall (22), and Mike Wallace (22). What do I take away from this? For starters, out of these seven players, only two are the #1 receivers on their team (Boldin and Marshall). Interestingly, they were both offseason acquisitions. Also, of those seven, only three have what I would call top tier QBs throwing them the ball, in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo. Say what you want about Romo but I view him as a top tier QB.
   
   Now, the biggest question on fantasy owners' minds is, "Which of these performances are for real and which are one time things?" Well, I want to label Boldin and Marshall as those most likely to repeat these types of games. They're the top receivers on their offenses. The players I would say not to bother with are Moore, Lloyd, and Williams. Not that they don't have the talent, but I just think that they are too low on the pecking order to string together any sort of fantasy consistency. Which brings me to my last point.
   
   I think that Collie and Wallace are for real and that their performances on Sunday are the most impressive of the bunch. Each are young players in their 2nd year and each have dynamic QBs throwing them the ball (even though Roethlisberger isn't back yet). And each have proven veterans lining up opposite them at the line (Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne, for those of you who didn't know). But which receiver will ultimately be more consistent out of Collie and Wallace? If I had to choose, I think I'd go with Collie. Wallace might end up with better numbers but that's because he's a deep threat. He was only targeted 4 times on Sunday (granted, he caught three of them for 100 and 2 TDs) but Collie was targeted 16 times! The only player with more targets this week was Brandon Marshall. So, in summary, both are for real. I'd probably start each one every week from here on out until they show otherwise.
   
   
2. What is up with the San Francisco 49ers? This is a team that I had at 13-3 in the preseason. Well, I'm not wrong yet. All they need to do is win out. But a week after putting up a great fight against the New Orleans Saints, they go to Kansas City and get embarrassed. If not for a meaningless last second TD, they would have lost 31-3. Which would have meant that in games against the Chiefs and Seahawks (who had a combined 9-23 last year), the 49ers would be outscored 62-9. It is most certainly time to panic in San Francisco.
   
   It's easy to call San Francisco the biggest disappointment so far this year. Who else has been disappointing? Another California team, the San Diego Chargers. They were beaten by Seattle 27-20, despite outgaining the Seahawks 518-271. Both of their losses have come against, guess who, the Chiefs and Seahawks. Is it time to panic in San Diego? Not quite, but I would keep my finger close to the button.
   
   
3. Alright, let's give some love to the big surprises of the year. I've already discussed them above but certainly the Chiefs and Seahawks top the list. I'm still not convinced by the Chiefs but this certainly helped them in my book. Cassel actually didn't look awful, for a change, and they are one of two 3-0 teams (the other being Pittsburgh). However, I want to see the Chiefs win a meaningful game on the road before I jump onboard.
   
   The Seahawks are a weird team this year. They look great against San Francisco, get thumped by Denver, and then play a great half against San Diego followed by an unimpressive half against San Diego. So which team are they? I say...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with the bad one. And this is why. As Philip Rivers and the Chargers got rolling in the second half yesterday, who bailed out the Seahawks? It wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. It wasn't Justin Forsett. It wasn't the defense. It wasn't even the coaching. It was Leon Washington's two kick return TDs. If you're relying on your kick returner to singlehandedly get you points, you won't win many games. Also, this was the first game that I saw the Seahawks give Forsett the carries he deserves. He's easily the best back they have but has been inexplicably forced to share carries with Julius Jones and Washington. But, today, he was given 17 of the team's 21 carries (Hasselbeck had 3, Washington had 1). I told you to hold onto him, fantasy owners.
   
   
4. Fantasy MVP...Kyle Orton? Yep, believe it or not, Orton has been electric so far this year. He went into this game as the 8th best QB and then threw for 476 yards. The worrying bit is that he only had 1 TD but I think that's more of a product of Denver's less than stellar receivers than Orton's inefficiencies. With bye weeks starting up next week, he's a more than capable fill in and could even turn out to be a solid fantasy starter. In fact, he's currently the 4th fantasy QB (granted, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have yet to play). Still, don't sleep on the Orton.
   
   
5. The fearsome Ravens defense versus Peyton Hillis. Advantage, Hillis. Yep, that's right. The same Ravens defense who rarely allows a 100 yard rusher gave up 144 yards and a TD to Hillis, who was filling in for injured starter Jerome Harrison. I think he made a pretty good case to get the starting job, don't you? Did you know that he's scored a rushing TD in three straight games? Do you know what other running backs have done that this year? That's right. None.
   
   
6. It was meant to be a shootout in Houston. Instead, it was just the Cowboys shooting. Tony Romo looked pretty good, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Matt Schaub...didn't, as he went for 241, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Expect Romo to continue to put up good numbers and, also, expect Schaub's stats to go up. This was an off day for just about everyone on the Texans.
   
   
7. I don't normally talk about kickers here but two kickers missed relatively easy game winners today. First, and ugliest, was New Orleans' Garrett Hartley. He's missed 3/7 on the year so far and even the ones that he's made haven't been pretty. And, after he missed a 29 yarder in overtime today, I'd be surprised if he has a job for much longer. The Saints have reportedly been looking at John Carney. So we'll see what happens there.
   
   In other news, we have Sebastian Janikowski, who is known for being scary looking and having a monster leg. Fun fact: he was also drafted in the 1st round back in 2000. Janikowski has now missed field goals in all three games this year, including a 3/6 effort today, culminating in a 32 yard miss that would've won the game. Instead, he pushed it left and the Cardinals escaped with a win. Sad for Raiders fans, yes, especially after he made a 54 yarder in the 1st quarter. But, as Oakland RB Darren McFadden said, "If he kicked that ball 100 times, he's going to make 99 of them. It just so happened that he missed that one." Basically, even if he has the talent, I wouldn't want to be relying on Janikowski as my fantasy kicker. Or Hartley, for that matter.
   
   
8. Nice performances by 3rd year QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who has been criticized for not performing well on the road, went into New Orleans and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs while throwing for 228 and 2 TDs. His numbers weren't spectacular but he didn't commit any turnovers which is a big help when you play a good team like the Saints. But, even with this performance, I'm not about ready to call Ryan a fantasy starter.
   
   Flacco, on the other hand, could be. A week after the worst performance of his career, Flacco got to play around with new target Anquan Boldin, going on to throw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with Boldin catching 142 of those yards and all of the TDs. Next, Flacco gets a tough Steelers defense. I'd be nervous about starting him for that game but you can do a whole lot worse. I have Flacco as a top 10 QB from this point onward.
   
   And, last but not least, Chad Henne. Last week, I said it was time to push the panic button and drop Henne. Not so fast, everybody! This was the Henne that we thought was going to be a sleeper fantasy QB. 363 and 2 TDs against a good Jets pass defense (okay, they were missing Revis) but he looked good. If you dropped him, sorry and try and pick him back up. If you're still holding onto him, well, you're smarter than me.

I'm in the situation on one of my teams where I have a heavy reliance on the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys, arguably the three most disappointing teams so far this year. I think that both the Cowboys and Chargers can right the ship. 49ers...I dunno. But, that's all for today. The Packers visit the Bears on Monday night in what looks to be a great divisional battle. Rodgers vs. Cutler. Can somebody say shootout?

Week 3: Great Expectations

That's two weeks in the books. And we had a couple of players break out last week. And two of them were both in the same game. Jahvid Best and LeSean McCoy had 40 and 30 points respectively and, for the most part, found themselves on the bench in many leagues. I, for one, said to bench Best because I was concerned about his ypc and the fact that he needed TDs to put up big fantasy numbers. Yes, I was dead wrong. But will these guys exceed expectations again? And, if they won't, who will?

Tony Romo (at Houston)

In the past two weeks, Houston has allowed 21 fantasy points (to Donovan McNabb) and 29 (to Peyton Manning). All that the Cowboys have done for the past two weeks is throw the ball. Do you really think they're going to stop throwing when they find a miserable pass defense? Start Romo with confidence.

Alex Smith (at Kansas City)

For those of you who watched last week's Monday Night game, you were probably impressed by Alex Smith's 2 minute drill to put the 49ers in a position to force OT. I thought that he looked very good throughout, with the exception of his first INT when he threw it behind Frank Gore, leading to a tipped ball. Now he gets KC who let Seneca Wallace throw for 229 and 1 TD. Smith is much better than Wallace and I expect him to do what he does best: get the ball to Frank Gore. If you're in need of a QB this week, Smith could be a nice fill-in.

Shaun Hill (at Minnesota)

Okay, this one could be a bit of a stretch, but hear me out. I'm not saying you should start Hill but I can see him exceeding expectations this week. Look at the facts. He's playing Minnesota, one of the best run defenses in the league. Last week, he threw for 335 and 2 TDs against Philadelphia, a pretty good pass defense. Yes, he had 3 turnovers, but he still had a 20 point fantasy day. If Detroit wants to have any shot in the world this week, they're going to need to throw. If he just drops back and chucks it up to Calvin Johnson, he could post a solid fantasy day.

Darren McFadden (at Arizona)

Now this is what the Raiders wanted when they drafted him. On the season, Run-DMC has 48 carries for 240 yards and 8 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD. Arizona is not good and DMC is basically the only weapon that the Raiders have. Expect him to get the ball. A lot. He should be in a for a good day.

LeSean McCoy (at Jacksonville) and Jahvid Best (at Minnesota)

Of course I had to put them in here! Did you see them last week?! Now, McCoy has a much more favorable matchup but for what Best doesn't get in rushing yards, expect him to get in receiving yards. Start each of them. Aren't they both currently top 3 RBs?

Pierre Thomas (vs. Atlanta)

Reggie Bush is out for at least 6 weeks which will make it all but certain that Thomas will get the carries. And the catches. Drew Brees spreads the ball around and Thomas grabbed 8 receptions last week. Atlanta has allowed rushing TDs each of the past two weeks and I expect Thomas to make it three in a row. Consider him a high #2 RB this week.

Hines Ward (at Tampa Bay)

I said it last week and I'll say it again. He's the security blanket for whoever is the QB for Pittsburgh. Last week, he didn't really get anything because the Steelers didn't need to throw. Their defense won it for them. Whether it's Batch or Leftwich under center, expect them to look to Ward. And often.

Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens (at Carolina)

Carolina has looked pretty bad against the pass, allowing Mike Williams to score a TD on a nice catch and run. Ochocinco and Owens are both better than Williams and I wouldn't be surprised if they both find the endzone this week.

Calvin Johnson (at Minnesota)

See Shaun Hill.

Okay, before I continue with my last WR, I'm going to show you two sets of numbers.

1. 7 catches, 91 yards

2. 3 catches, 44 yards

Now, neither of these stats are that impressive. But do you know who's stats they are? I'll give you a clue. Both are 2nd year WRs and both were taken in the first round of the draft. Figure it out? Player 1 is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Player 2 is Michael Crabtree.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (at Arizona)

Again, I'm not saying to start DHB. Just that I think he will exceed expectations. But he looked pretty good last week and he has the speed to beat any secondary in the game. Sure, he may not have the hands, but if he catches one long TD, he has a good day. And his numbers this year are better than Crabtree's. Was Al Davis on to something back when he drafted him??? Nah, probably not.

Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Detroit)

He's Favre's favorite target, no doubt. He's scored 13 and 8 points these past two weeks and he'll probably score again this week. Start him.

Is it Time to Push the Panic Button?

I've always believed that the first 2-3 weeks of the season are the hardest to predict, whether from a fantasy perspective or not. You really have no idea how the teams are going to perform (example for me: the 49ers, a team I had predicted would go 13-3 and is currently 0-2) and basically all players other than the superstars all start out as question marks. That means that, at this point, you are getting a much better idea of how your fantasy (or favorite) team will perform for the rest of the season. This also means you are in the midst of big waiver-wire pickups and are deciding which players to drop. Now, the current rankings for players are obviously not what they will be at the end of the season (if Jason Snelling finishes in the top 5 running backs, I'll drop out of school) but we are starting to get a bit more of an indication. Still, by week 4, the ratings will begin to solidify.

The purpose of this post is to try to help give you an idea of which player's slow starts will get better and which are for real. Basically, is it time to hit the panic button?

Chad Henne

Many people (myself included) were very high on Henne with the acquisition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. But it seems that the Dolphins are still a run-first team. I had Henne at 11th at the start of the season but I'm now thinking that 21 might be a better ranking. He has 7 and 8 points in his first two starts. I've seen QBs get more than 7 and 8 points on one throw. It's time to hit the panic button. Fantasy owners, I think it's time to abandon Operation Henne. Concern level: 100%.

Joe Flacco

Flacco is currently the 33rd ranked QB. Just a reminder: there are 32 teams in the league. Flacco was my 9th QB in the preseason and I'm not ready to abandon hope just yet. But I am worried. Against the Bengals, Flacco made bad decision after bad decision and didn't look comfortable in the pocket. However, these have been two very good pass defenses that he has faced in the first two games. It'll get better. Concern level: 30%.

Brett Favre

Last season's career year feels like a distant memory. This new Favre has only 1 TD and 5 turnovers through two games. He and his receivers seem to be on different pages and nothing has gone right for the Vikings. I wouldn't say cut him because it looks like the Vikes could trade for Vincent Jackson and get Sidney Rice back in a few weeks. But I'm not about to start him. Concern level: 75%.

Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner

These guys were all top 10 running backs before the season started. They are currently the 22nd, 27th, 30th, and 31st ranked running backs. Some names that are ahead of them: Jason Snelling (5th), Mike Tolbert (13th), and Peyton Hillis (15th). Now, I know as well as you do that you are not about to jettison your first round pick because of two lackluster games, but is there room for concern? I'll look at each player.

For Ray Rice, the only concern I have with him is that Willis McGahee is his usual touchdown-vulturing self. Other than that, the concern level is at 5%.

DeAngelo Williams, one half of the dynamic Carolina rushing duo is currently outperforming Jonathan Stewart 136 yards to 55. And, that's 36 touches to 13. I'm not worried about Williams, other than the fact that I did see Stewart get a key 4th down goal line carry (and did not convert it). Still, if there's a Carolina RB that you want, it's Williams. But the Carolina offense has looked pretty sad. If I can get rid of Williams, I think I would. Concern level: 40%.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a beast, no way around it. He is easily the best player on Jacksonville and was a fantasy stud last year. But he only had 13 touches this past week, the same amount as his backup, Rashad Jennings. The problem with this past game was that the Jags were playing from behind pretty much from the get-go and abandoned the run. Looking at their upcoming schedule, they get Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Tennessee in three of their next four games. If you could trade MJD for another first round talent, I might do it. Concern level: 25%.

Michael Turner was on his way to a great game (9 carries for 75 yards) before he got hurt. I, like many other Michael Turner owners, thought to myself Oh hell, not this again. However, coach Mike Smith said that Turner had been cleared to return and might have done so, had the game not been such a blowout. If this were a first time occurrence, I might give him a pass, but we saw this all of last year. When he's healthy, he's a top 10/top 5 back. When he isn't...concern level: 40%.

Justin Forsett

Forsett is easily the best back in the Seattle backfield but, for some reason, Pete Carroll keeps inexplicably using Julius Jones. Jones has three less carries than Forsett and 57 less yards! I'll give you a moment to let that sink in. If Seattle would just give Forsett the clear starting job and stop fooling around with Jones, he would be a starter. As it is right now, he won't get enough touches to be a viable starting option. I'm not starting him but I'm not dropping him just yet. Concern level: 50%.

Ryan Mathews

Mathews was a popular late 3rd/early 4th round pick in drafts but, so far, has only managed 7 points. Part of that was because he got hurt in his last game and left after only five carries for 26 yards and a fumble. But the fumble is the thing that concerns me. That's two fumbles lost in two games. Some are saying it's bad luck, others are saying it's a sign of things to come. I fall in the middle of the spectrum. I wouldn't worry about it because we have such a small sample size. But, if the numbers don't change by week 6, I would be worried. Hell, if he fumbles in week 3, I'm worried. He's supposed to play this week after his injury so he should be good to go for fantasy lineups. Concern level: 35%.

Ricky Williams

Williams is part of the two headed monster that is the Dolphins' backfield. But it is clear that he is the lesser of the two heads. In two games, Williams actually has two more carries than Ronnie Brown but Brown has outgained Williams by 53 yards. Williams is averaging a meager 3.3 ypc and has no TDs. If I have him, I'm looking to cut him for other options. But, if Brown were to get injured (which he inevitably will do), Williams' value goes up. Until then, my concern level is at 80%.

Marion Barber and Felix Jones

The Cowboys have all but abandoned the run and both Barber's and Jones' numbers have suffered because of that. Each have managed only 6 fantasy points on the year, or the equivalent of 1 TD. If I could have one, I would want Jones because I think he winds up being the starter. Of course, from what I've seen so far, Barber looks like the more consistent starter. However, in a perfect world, I wouldn't start either of them until the Cowboys can get something that resembles a running game going. My concern level for Barber is 65% and for Jones it is 70%.

Shonn Greene

So far during the season, LaDainian Tomlinson has outscored Greene 16-4 in fantasy points. Is this a sign for things to come? I think yes. Tomlinson has looked younger and faster, much better than he did last year and Green looks like he'll wind up being the change of pace back. Coach Rex Ryan says that he wants to split the carries 50-50 with each back getting 15 carries a game but I think they might wind up going with the hot hand. If I could sell Green, I would but don't be surprised if he picks his game up later on in the season. Concern level: 70%.

C.J. Spiller

Spiller has two fantasy points through 2 games and has 8 carries for 9 yards. He was one of the most talented rookie running backs in this past draft but he drew the short straw when he was drafted by Buffalo. There are holes all over that team and I'm not about to start anybody on it. I don't think that I would drop Spiller but I'm not starting him until he shows me something. Concern level: 80%.

Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker

There are four receivers who are currently tied for the 30th place rank in fantasy points. Can you guess who they are? If you said Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker, and Devin Hester because their names were right above this little trivia, I'd tell you to stop being a smart ass. But, yes, Randy Moss is 30th in wide receiver points, tied with Boldin, MSW, and Hester. Of the four of them, Moss is the one I'm least concerned about because, well, he's Randy Moss and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. His concern level is 0%.

Concerning Boldin, he was plagued by a poor performance from Joe Flacco on Sunday so, naturally, his numbers dropped. Give him time, he'll bounce back. Concern level: 10%.

Now, Mike Sims-Walker. He was horribly inconsistent last year and opened this season with a 0 point game before following it up with a 14 point effort. You see what I'm getting at? He'll have good games, he'll have bad ones. Is there a way to figure out when they'll be? Nope. I don't want him on my team, but that's not to say he won't put up good numbers. My concern level: 50%.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe has the potential to be a great receiver. However, I don't think Matt Cassel has the potential to be a starting quarterback. As long as Cassel is under center, Bowe will not have good numbers. Panic button, you have been pressed. Abandon the Dwayne Bowe ship. Concern level: 100%.

Robert Meachem

He has 5 targets through two games, and only has three catches for 33 yards. It's clear that he's the 5th/6th read in the New Orleans offense. That's not someone you want on your team. Press the button, the concern level is at 100%.

Lee Evans

Evans is the definition of a big play receiver. And Buffalo is the definition of an ailing franchise. Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Evans' numbers will still be bad, I can guarantee it. If you can get something for him, do it now. Otherwise, he serves no purpose. Concern level: 100%.

Michael Crabtree

I'm not too sure what Crabtree is doing in this offense. Last night, Crabtree had 3 targets to Josh Morgan's 8, Vernon Davis' 7 and Frank Gore's 9. Crabtree is certainly talented enough to put up good numbers but Alex Smith doesn't seem to be looking to him that much (and after that week 1 performance, I can certainly understand why). I'd put him on my bench but don't go and drop him just yet. He's a great talent and has immense potential. As it stands, concern level: 55%.

Brandon Marshall

Marshall is now on a run-first team but he is still a freak of nature. He'll get his numbers, but you might have to wait a bit. Remember that he only had 6 fantasy points through his first two weeks last year as he got used to new quarterback Kyle Orton. Then he scored 4 TDs in 3 games. Concern level: 5%.

If you need to make roster cuts this week, I hope this helps. Don't give up hope on everyone just yet. There's still plenty of season left.

Just a Clarification

Just wanted to clarify what I would view as a 'solid' performance fantasy-wise for each position. The numbers are as follows:

Quarterback: 200 yards and 2 TDs. Somewhere around 16-18 fantasy points

Running Back: 100 yards or 40 yards and a TD. Somewhere around 10 fantasy points

Wide Receiver: See running back.

Tight End: 60 yards or a TD. Somewhere around 6 points.

Defense: Somewhere around 8-10 fantasy points.

Kickers: At least 7 points.

So when I say a player will Exceed Expectations, this is my benchmark for what I'm hoping they wind up doing.

Week 2: What I Learned From Sunday

The second Sunday of the year has wrapped up. And, as with every week, there were plenty of surprises and disappointments. Here's what I took away from the Sunday #2.

1. I think one unexpected player will score 40+ points each week. Last week we had Arian Foster go for 41, this week it was Jahvid Best for 40. 3 TDs and 232 total yards normally makes for a good game. And if you look here in my Game By Game Breakdown, I said that I would sit Jahvid Best. Which I did in the leagues where I had him. Ummm, mulligan? I don't think he's still going to rely on TDs for points. He looked good against a good Eagles defense. I was wrong for that one. Actually, let's see how I did for the rest of those predictions.
   
   
2. Just how great were my Great Expecations? Let's see. I nailed Rivers, Ryan, and Vick. 3/3. As for the running backs, 2/3 had good but not great games. Barber and Jones let me down though. Wes Welker, Donald Driver, and Dez Bryant all scored TDs (the last one was a punt return though. I'll take it) but Hines Ward was the victim of a terrible passing performance by the Steelers, which was partly due to Dennis Dixon getting hurt. Still, I'll take 3/4. As for tight ends, Carlson had a decent game but nothing that really separated him from the pack. Cooley, on the other hand, had 64 yards and at TD. I'll call that 1/2. So, to recap, I was 9/12 on my Great Expecations. I'm pleased with that.
   
   
3. My Do Not Want list was a also pretty successful. Carson Palmer did not set the world on fire against Baltimore. That much I got right. Jay Cutler against Dallas? Okay, 277 yds and 3 TDs aren't that good. Fine, they are. 1/2. Forte didn't look that good on the ground but it was his receiving that set him apart. Got that one wrong. Forsett and Jones weren't spectacular in their games either. 8 for 44 and 22 for 83 respectively. I'd like to think I got those two right. And Benson only had 78 yards on 23 carries. I'll say 3/4 on RBs. Nicks only had 2 catches for 38 yards but one of them did go for a TD. But both of those catches were in garbage time. I'd say I got him right. And Moss only had 2 for 38 and a TD. Yes, that TD catch was pretty but I think I got that one right too. Naanee had 1 catch for 14 yards. Nailed it! And Wallace? He had 2 for 25 and actually led the team in receiving. Got that one too. Wow, I was 4/4 with receivers! And, of course, the tight end. Olsen made me look stupid with his 39 yard TD catch. But, I would like to point out that it wound up being his only catch. Just saying. I'll award myself half a point for that. So I finished 8.5/11. For an overall total of 17.5/23. 76% right. That's pretty solid, I'd say.
   
   
4. Damn those injuries. There were some big names getting hurt this week and they likely hurt your fantasy teams if you were unlucky enough to have them starting. I, for one, had both Michael Turner and Ryan Mathews starting in one of my leagues and I was very pleased to see them both getting off to good starts. And then...they're gone. Especially when you're playing against the likes of AP and Tim Hightower. Unfortunate, yes. But they weren't the only two names to go down. Jason Witten became the latest casualty of the concussion. He'll need to pass various tests before he is allowed to play again. Andre Johnson scared owners when he departed for around a whole quarter against the Redskins. But he went on to catch 12 for 158 and a TD. Much better than last week's 3 for 33. And Steeler's quarterback Dennis Dixon left in the 2nd quarter after throwing for 18 yards and a fumble. While most aren't starting Dixon but it will affect the fantasy stocks of Hines Ward and Mike Wallace.
   
   
5. Why are the top RBs consistently nobodies? Last week, it was Arian Foster, this week it was Jahvid Best. And Jason Snelling and Mike Tolbert were in the top 5 in running back points! Many of you remember Snelling from last year as "The Guy Who Was Not Michael Turner." And Mike Tolbert...I think he's a fullback. Wikipedia says so, at least. And he had 95 total yards and 2 TDs. Who will be the unexpected performer next week? I'm guessing John Kuhn in GB.
   
   
6. Joe Flacco cannot solve the Bengals. In three career starts versus Cincinnati, Flacco has 1 TD and 8 INTs. And I must say, I was disgusted to hear countless Ravens fans bitching and moaning after this week to the tunes of, "Flacco can't throw at all. Why is he our quarterback?" and "He's the second coming of Boller!" To those of you out there who fell into this crowd, give it a rest. What are you, Eagles fans? Also, the Ravens have yet to allow a TD this year, the only team to do so.
   
   
7. The battle of the Manning brothers wasn't much of a battle. Again. Peyton outperformed the younger Eli by going 20/26 for 255 yards and 3 TDs to Eli's 13/24 for 161 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 2 fumbles lost. Peyton looks like he'll be in the MVP running again. Eli...you be the judge.
   
   
8. The best looking team of the week was, in my opinion, the Bears. Jay Cutler looked like the quarterback the Bears wanted when they traded for him. And, most importantly, he did not commit a turnover. If he can keep up that performance, watch out. The Bears could be dangerous. But, if you're a Jay Cutler owner, now may be the time to sell high.
   
   
9. I think I may just bench any running back playing the Steelers. In the past two weeks, the Steelers defense has held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson, two of the best running backs in the game, to 19 carries for 42 yards and 16 carries for 32 yards and a fumble, respectively. Next week, they have Tampa Bay and Cadillac Williams. I know who I'm benching...

Okay, that's a wrap. The Saints visit the 49ers on Monday night. Gore owners are hoping for a big game out of him but Brees owners are hoping he can pick apart the 49ers secondary. I actually called San Francisco to win this one in the preseason. I thought long and hard about changing it but, in the end, I didn't. I actually had the same quandary with the Jets and Patriots game today. In the preseason, I called the Jets but changed it to the Pats this week. I'm not gonna do that again and just go with my instincts from the preseason. Alright, I'm out. Hope you all won your matchups (and if I caused you to lose them, then find peace in the fact that I also caused myself to lose mine).