Week 4: What I Learned

We're a quarter of the way through the season and there is only one team left undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs? Yep, everyone who predicted that one, raise your hand. What, nobody? Todd Haley? No, not even you? Anyway, with the last undefeated team not playing this week, here's what I learned.

1. The unexpected top scorer of the week was...the Patriots D/ST? Yep, the leading points scorer for the week was the Patriots D/ST, thanks to 4 INTs, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, 2 sacks, and 3 TDs, including one kick return. Do they keep it up? I doubt it. I think they're much more of a matchup play, and an iffy one at that. In two weeks this year, they have gotten 49 fantasy points, more than Tony Romo, Roddy White, Dallas Clark, and DeSean Jackson, to name a few. Those games were against Cincinnati (16 pts) and, of course, yesterday against Miami (33 pts). However, in the other two, they managed a grand total of 0 points (-1 against the Jets and 1 against the Bills). My verdict: don't buy into the Pats but if you can sell high, go right ahead.
   
   
2. I think the NFL Fountain of Youth has been discovered. The number 3 and 4 scorers for the week, out of everybody, were Terrell Owens (28) and LaDainian Tomlinson (27), who looked like their 3-years-ago selves. T.O. had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in a loss to the Browns and L.T. (I love these two letter nicknames) who had 19 carries for 133 yards and a TD, as well as 3 catches for 22 yards. Now, the big question on fantasy owners' minds is "Can they keep it up?" I think L.T. can and T.O. might, but that's a very questionable might. L.T. is the clear top RB in New York and, as a result, is the 9th RB overall right now. I think he winds up just outside the top 10 but in the top 15. T.O., on the other hand, looks to be consistent, but more in the 5-6 points per game. He will have these big games every now and then but, for the most part, will be a #3 fantasy receiver. I am proud to say that in my league that starts 3 WRs, I decided to start Johnny Knox over T.O. That wound up being a 26 point difference. I went on to lose by 5. Damn it all.
   
   
3. Arian Foster, top 10 running back. That's four weeks and four double digit games for a guy who went in the 5th-6th round in most drafts. Also, he has three 100 yard games out of four total. Do you know who else has three 100 yard games? Nobody. Prediction: Foster finishes as a top 10 RB, and I might go as far to say in the top 5.
   
   
4. The top pass catcher, out of WRs and TEs, is...Antonio Gates. Yep, Gates has the most points out of all WRs and TEs so far this year. And his stats are crazy. He's scored in every game, has no less than 5 catches in any week, has two 100 yard games in a row, and has caught 24 of the 34 balls thrown his way. So far, he has 24 catches for 386 yards and 6 TDs. For those of you doing the math, he catches a TD once in every four receptions. I doubt he keeps this hot streak up all year but ride him if you've got him.
   
   
5. Let's not forget the third overall pass catcher...Dustin Keller? What has gotten into these tight ends? Okay, for reference, out of tight ends and wide receivers, here are the top four scorers so far.
   1. Antonio Gates
   2. Austin Collie
   3. Dustin Keller (tie)
   3. Reggie Wayne (tie)
   After getting smacked by Ray Lewis and then stepping out of bounds 1 yard short of the first down in Week 1 against the Ravens, Keller has exploded for 17 point, 21 point, and 14 point games in three straight weeks, scoring 5 TDs and catching 17 balls for 241 yards. I had him as my 15th tight end overall in the preseason. Consider him a top 10 option from here on out.
   
   
6. An odd assortment of the top 5 QBs for the week. There were only 5 QBs to score over 20 points this week. In order, they were David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Manning is a stud and must start every week. No more to say about him. Kyle Orton has now scored 20+ points in three straight weeks and is currently the 4th best QB. I think he's legit. Shaun Hill did what every Lions QB needs to do: get the ball to Calvin Johnson, who had 6 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs on 11 targets. I think he actually needs to get the ball more. He could be a decent bye week fill in, depending on the matchup. Fitzpatrick now has 2 TDs in two straight weeks after being declared the starter. He could also be a bye week filler in deeper leagues. Honestly, the only one I'm not buying is the guy who lead all QBs in points this week: David Garrard. I think this was the perfect definition of a fluke. I still couldn't bring myself to start him.
   
   
7. Injuries, injuries, injuries. A bunch of big names either got injured or were limited by injuries this week.
   
   Heading the list is Michael Vick, who is week-to-week with rib cartilage damage. Kevin Kolb starts while he's out and, honestly, who knows what's going to happen with the QB situation in Philly.
   
   Darren McFadden injured his hamstring in the 3rd quarter against Houston and did not return. He's said to be day to day. If he were to miss time, Michael Bush would get the start. McFadden actually has double digit points every week this week.
   
   Ahmad Bradshaw came up limping after a play in the fourth quarter. He will probably be limited this week in practice but should be back for next week. Expect Brandon Jacobs to see more carries this week.
   
   Clinton Portis says he will probably not play this week against Green Bay. Ryan Torain looks to be the primary back while he is out. Torain looked good against Philadelphia with 18 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He's a must-add, if he hasn't been already.
   
   LeSean McCoy is out indefinitely with a fractured rib. McCoy has been a top 5 RB so far this year so this is a big blow. Mike Bell will likely start in his place.
   
   Ryan Mathews was said to be healthy but Norv Turner insisted on keeping Mike Tolbert as the primary back. Mathews still managed a TD to save his fantasy day but Turner says that Mathews will be the primary back moving forward and was being eased back. He has Oakland this week. No worries.
   
   Ray Rice didn't get the start against Pittsburgh but after Willis McGahee went down with an injury, Rice got some carries. McGahee says he'll be back this week and Rice has said that he felt no problems with his knee. No worries.
   
   Andre Johnson didn't play this week and is still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's a top option. If he doesn't, well, then he's not.
   
   Jay Cutler suffered a concussion and did not return to action Sunday night against the Giants. But not before he turned in a 42 yard, 4 turnover performance. Fantasy owners were not pleased. He is expected to play against the Panthers this week but be sure to monitor his performance throughout the week.
   
   
8. Okay, I am now officially wrong about the 49ers. They are now 0-4 and my 13-3 preseason prediction is gone. So far, they've played two good games and two terrible games. As of now, I think Frank Gore is the only 49er who you can start with confidence every week, but Vernon Davis should be a top 10 tight end by the end of the year. They can't be this bad all year, can they? Can they????
   
   
9. Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand? Oh, to take down the Steelers. It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day (12 pts) but it showed that he can beat the top tier teams, something that he was being criticized heavily for all year. I expect him to keep getting better and finish in the top 10-top 15 QBs.

The Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks are on byes this week. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, and Brian Cushing all return from suspensions. Kansas City looks to remain undefeated but have the Colts and Texans in the next two weeks.

Also, the Bills have just traded running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 pick. The Seahawks are said to release RB Julius Jones. This hurts Justin Forsett's value and we'll look at how their running game looks in two weeks when they play the Bears.