Week 5: What I Learned

San Francisco. San Francisco. God dammit, San Francisco. Back in the preseason, here is the first two lines that I wrote when Tim and I were doing our preseason predictions for the NFC West:

"I'm probably too high on San Francisco this year but I don't care. I think this is the year they put it all together."

Oops. Well, I was right, in a sense. I was too high on San Francisco. Waaaay too high. I had them pegged at 13-3, Tim at 10-6. Both of us had them finishing 1st in the division. Am I ready to go back on my word? No! I still think they win the division! You heard me. And it's not out of faith in San Francisco but a complete lack of faith in everybody else in the division. Arizona leads the division at 3-2 and I actually think they're the worst team. So far, they've been outscored by 50 points. How are they over .500?! Seattle is going to be horribly inconsistent for the rest of the year and they haven't actually played that well this year. And St. Louis actually looks like the best bet to unseat San Francisco as the best team. But I don't think they will. I'm still picking San Francisco to win the NFC West!

Fun Fact: I've picked SF to win every game this year. I've been wrong each time.

Alright, here's what I learned from Week 5.

1. Thank you, thank you, thank you Malcom Floyd! All preseason, I was saying how high I was on Malcom Floyd. I have him in practically all of my leagues, and I was often taking him in late rounds, simply because people had no idea who he was. But Floyd has been fantastic this year, and is now the #4 wide receiver, thanks to his 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD game against Oakland. I don't think he slows down. But the best part? Oakland has probably the best pass defense he's faced all year. Someone asked me if Floyd is a sell high? No, he's for real.

2. Actually, who saw these top 4 WRs coming? In order, these are the top four scoring wide receivers, in order. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, Austin Collie, Malcom Floyd. Their average rounds drafter? 8th, undrafted, 13th, 9th. Ride the fantasy studs! I think they keep it up. If anybody were to fall out of this group, it would probably be Collie, simply because there are too many other targets in that Colts offense.

3. Another week, another score. Non-QBs who have scored in every week: Peyton Hillis, Antonio Gates. That's it. Hillis didn't have a rushing TD this week but had a nifty catch and made it in for the score. And Gates...what hasn't been said about him? He's a beast. Plain and simple. To put this in perspective, if I had Gates and somebody were to offer me Andre Johnson for him, at this point in the year, I don't think I could accept that deal. He's been that good.

4. God damn it, those injuries! Big fantasy injuries this week. Mark Clayton, who was making a case for Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, is now done for the year. Jermichael Finley, one of the top tight ends in the league, has a torn meniscus and is expected to be out for anywhere from 8 weeks to the whole season (I had him in a bunch of leagues. Damn it!). Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in garbage time last week (why was he on the field???) and is currently listed as questionable for this week's game against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers got hit and received a concussion on the Packers' last offensive play. He's questionable as well.

5. I've been calling for Ryan Mathews to have a big week for the past two weeks. He looked healthy last week and had 9 carries for 59 yards (9 carries for 55 and a TD the week before) and Mike Tolbert looked awful. 12 carries for 11 yards and a goal line fumble. This week is the week of Mathews (I will say that until it happens)!

6. Greg Jennings vs. Donald Driver. Look at the numbers. Driver has 25 catches for 376 yards and 3 TDs on 34 targets while Jennings has 14 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs on 31 targets. Driver has the better numbers. Driver is the better fantasy play. And, with Finley now out for a significant period of time, expect Driver to get more of his targets. If you can sell high on Jennings, I'd say do it.

7. Here's another one: Chad Ochocinco vs. Terrell Owens. Their numbers: Owens has 31 catches for 476 yards and 2 TDs on 61 targets. Ochocinco has 26 catches for 316 yards and 1 TD on 44 targets. I'm picking Owens. Ocho actually has one more point than Greg Jennings.

8. Ben Roethlisberger comes back this week. Hide your women! With the return of Big Ben, the entire Steelers offense will get a boost and, as a result, so will fantasy players. Mike Wallace is the one who actually gets the biggest boost since he can now get deep balls. I also think Heath Miller's stock rises considerably. Ben looks to him a lot and, if you just lost Jermichael Finley, Miller could be a good fill in.

Week 5: Predictions

Last week, Tim and I had the exact same picks and, naturally, both finished the week 6-8. That means, our season standings are currently:

Tim: 33-29 (6-8)

Dan: 32-30 (6-8)

Now for Week 5:

Jacksonville at Buffalo

Tim: Jacksonville

Dan: Buffalo

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Atlanta at Cleveland

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: Atlanta

Denver at Baltimore

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

St. Louis at Detroit

Tim: Detroit

Dan: Detroit

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Green Bay at Washington

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Chicago at Carolina

Tim: Carolina

Dan: Carolina

New York Giants at Houston

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New Orleans at Arizona

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Tennessee at Dallas

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Dallas

San Diego at Oakland

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

Minnesota at New York Jets

Tim: New York Jets

Dan: Minnesota

Three games different this week. That's three more than last week.

Story Lines of the Week

• Randy Moss makes his Minnesota Vikings (re)debut on Monday night against Darrelle Revis and the Jets.
• Julius Peppers and the Bears return to his old stomping grounds of Carolina.
• Kansas City looks to stay unbeaten at Indianapolis.
• Kyle Orton, who leads the league in passing yards, faces the Ravens' #1 pass defense.
• Rookie QB Sam Bradford looks to get the Rams over .500 against an underrated Detroit Lions defense.
• Kevin Kolb is back under center for the Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco.

Week 5: Great Expectations

I'm going to use this space to vent some of my fantasy frustration that I built up in the past week. In one of my main leagues, a fairly deep 10 team league, that starts a QB, two RBs, one RB/WR flex, three WRs, a TE, D/ST, and K, I was debating between two spots: one was my flex spot and the other was my 3rd wide receiver.

For a flex, I was trying to decide between either Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Justin Forsett. I wound up going with Mathews because he was said to be healthy and, in theory, the starter, which pushed him ahead of Tolbert on the depth chart, and that he had the potential for a bigger game against a terrible Arizona defense. Mathews ended up having a mediocre game (12 points), which was better than Forsett (7 points) but worse than Tolbert (16). I still think I made the right call and think that Mathews ends up exceeding expectations this week (see below).

And, in the other spot, I had to choose between Terrell Owens and Johnny Knox. Owens had been consistent but unspectacular through three weeks, posting games of 5, 5, and 4 points. Knox, on the other hand, had been seeming to develop good chemistry with Jay Cutler and had games of 5, 8, and 9 points. I looked at the numbers and decided to go with Knox. And, naturally, Cutler gets hurt and helps get Knox his worst game of the year with 2 points. Owens, meanwhile, goes bonkers for 28 points, his best game since Week 11 of 2007 (8 catches, 173 yards, 4 TDs). I would go on to lose my fantasy game by 5 points. Okay, venting over. Here's who I think Exceeds Expectations this week.

Eli Manning (at Houston)

Houston's secondary is bad. It's so bad, it should be called a tertiary. It's so bad, I think that myself and a group of my friends could play against them and we could wind up as a fantasy flex play. This is a secondary that is 31st in terms of defense of fantasy quarterbacks. Last week, Bruce Gradkowski had a 14 point game against them. Teams have thrown at least 30 times against them every game this year, which means that teams know their weakness. Interestingly, Dallas was the team that threw the least. How often will you see that happening? Anyway, Eli plays Houston this week. Eli is better than Bruce Gradkowski. Eli has alternated his good games with bad ones. Eli had a bad one last week. Eli's due. Eli's a top 10 QB this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Jacksonville)

In a mood to gamble? Why not try Fitz? Jacksonville is dead last in terms of defense against fantasy QBs, allowing an average of almost 22 ppg to the QB. Fitz has 2 TDs in each of the past two weeks, including last week against a very good Jets secondary. Fitz has the potential for a decent fantasy day in what could wind up being the ugliest game of the weekend.

Joe Flacco (vs. Denver)

Another QB playing a lower tier fantasy QB defense. The Broncos rank 30th against fantasy QBs and Flacco looked very good against the Steelers last week. He should be a top 10 option this week.

Peyton Hillis (vs. Atlanta)

Keeping that streak alive, Hillis scored another TD last week, giving him four on the year, one in each game. He's the guy to own on the Browns (the only one) and, most importantly, is the only running back getting touches. He's a must start. That's right, a must start. And, who knows, might wind up being a top 10 back by the end of the year. Wow, who would've thought that out of that Arkansas backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis that it would be Hillis who was the most valuable fantasy player?

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Indianapolis)

Now, if I actually had to choose, I think I'd end up starting Jones over Charles. Charles has more upside but, in three games, Jones has 52 carries to Charles' 34. I don't know why he's getting so many more, but he is and we need to accept that. But note that Charles is averaging 7 ypc to Jones' 4.2. I think both are capable of being fantasy starters but I have Jones over Charles. In the long run, however, I think Charles overtakes Jones. For now, however, you have to play the cards you're dealt. The Colts are 26th against fantasy running backs so feel free to start each of them.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at Oakland)

They're playing Oakland. Need I say more?

Beanie Wells (vs. New Orleans)

Last week, Wells complained about not getting enough carries (he had 5 for 19 yards) and his lack of involvement in the offense. With the team's switch to Max Hall at QB, I think this winds up being the game where they rely on the running game the most. I'm expecting a good game from Beanie (or at least a lot of carries).

Terrell Owens (vs. Tampa Bay)

Fun fact: T.O. has the second most targets of any wide receiver (after Roddy White). And, thanks to last week's performance, is 4th in yards among wide receivers. He had a long TD last year against Atlanta and I expect him to burn a Tampa corner deep at one point or another this week. Even if he doesn't he gets more targets than he probably should and, at this point, is a potential fantasy starter.

Donald Driver (at Washington)

He has TDs in three out of four games this year and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With Green Bay's run game being, as ESPN's Matthew Berry put it, Aaron Rodgers bootlegs and quick screens, Driver should be serviceable for the rest of the year as a fantasy starter. There are simply too many weapons on that offense for defenses to contain. And Driver has been reaping the benefits.

Hakeem Nicks (at Houston)

Read what I said about Eli Manning. And who do you think he's gonna be throwing to?

Percy Harvin (at New York Jets)

Newly acquired Randy Moss lets Harvin go back to the position he is best suited for: slot receiver. He'll be like Wes Welker was with the Patriots when Moss was there. I wouldn't go and start him this week but I would definitely pick him up if I could or buy low if someone is willing to part with him. I expect him to have a good rest of the season.

Marques Colston (at Arizona)

Dammit, I said it last week and I'll say it again! He's gotta break out one of these weeks!

Dez Bryant and Roy Williams (vs. Tennessee)

Kyle Orton just proved that you can throw all over Tennessee. And did you know that Bryant and Williams each have the same amount of targets? That's right, 20 each. Bryant leads in receptions but Williams leads in yards and TDs. Yes, both take a backseat to Austin, but each have produced so far this year. You can do much worse.

Santonio Holmes (vs. Minnesota)

I don't know, call it a gut feeling, but I think that Sanchez winds up looking for him a lot. I wouldn't start him this week but keep an eye on him and see how he does.

Greg Olsen (at Carolina)

Jay Cutler isn't starting and I have a feeling that he winds up being Todd Collins' security blanket and gets a lot of checkdowns. Again, just a gut feeling.

Dustin Keller (vs. Minnesota)

5 TDs in three weeks. Yeah, I'm a believer. I'd say he's a must start tight end.

Brent Celek (at San Francisco)

Kevin Kolb is starting again and, if you watched the game last week, you noticed that he seemed to check down to his tight ends and running backs on just about every single play. And, when they got to the red zone, who did he look for? Yep. Celek.

I've learned from my mistake last week and am starting T.O. Watch Knox go off with Collins under center...