Week 13: Great Expectations

So, literally 20 minutes ago, Tim asked me a question about one of his lineups that initially seemed like a no-brainer but ended up being one of the tougher questions I've ever come across. His question:

Do I start Tom Brady or Sam Bradford?

Now, at the beginning of the year, if I was asked this, I probably would have answered with something resembling: "Are you serious? For future reference, you're meant to stop the Q-tip when you feel resistance!" Now, I'm not sure. Who would I pick?

For starters, you have to look at the matchups. Brady is at home against the Jets. Bradford is on the road at Arizona. Bradford obviously has the better matchup. Next, we'll look at the previous times that each player faced their opponent. For Brady, Week 2. He threw for 248 yards, 2 TDs, and had 3 turnovers. 11 fantasy points. For Bradford, Week 1. He had 253 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. 8 fantasy points. So now I need to make my decision. Who do I go with? both had terrible games the last times they played these opponents. Brady faces a top notch pass defense, Bradford faces a defense that can be gashed by either air or ground, so he may be handing the ball off to Steven Jackson a lot. But who do I pick?

I'd have to say Brady. He has been on fire lately and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. The only other time he has thrown an interception in a game, though? Week 2 against the Jets. Just be careful and, above all, don't get cute. Brady is the better fantasy quarterback here. He's who you want to go with. But ask me this same question again in a year or two, I'm saying Bradford.

So, from there, here's who I think Exceeds Expectations in Week 13.

Michael Vick (vs. Houston): Houston is 32nd against fantasy quarterbacks. The Eagles just lost a game in embarrassing fashion. They're gonna be angry and come out with every intention of destroying Houston. I don't know how else to say this other than GENTLEMEN, START! YOUR! EAGLES!

Kyle Orton (at Kansas City): Remember what he did last time these two teams played? Yeah, I'm liking Orton this week.

Matt Cassel (vs. Denver): But I don't think KC rolls over. Cassel is arguably the hottest QB right now and should be started by everyone. I think he finds Dwayne Bowe again. Start them both.

Josh Freeman (vs. Atlanta): Atlanta's secondary isn't that good, in all honesty. Freeman won't get you the huge numbers but if you want a consistent 15-20 points, he's your guy. He has only 2 INTs since Week 6 too. A sneaky play, if you want.

Sam Bradford (at Arizona): See above.

Darren McFadden (at San Diego): He's had two straight bad games, has missed two games, and is still the 11th overall running back! I think he bounces back this week. My reasoning? Gut call, tis all.

Matt Forte (at Detroit): He historically gashes the Lions. The Lions are starting Drew Stanton at QB. Drew Stanton is a bad QB. The Bears will get up big. The Bears will then run the ball. That's what Forte does (I would've said does best but he actually catches the ball better than he runs it). Start Forte.

Steven Jackson (at Arizona): Arizona is bad. Next!

Fred Jackson (at Minnesota): His fantasy scores the past three weeks: 26, 24, 21. Ride the hot streak!

Steve Johnson (at Minnesota): After he had the dropsies last week, I think he bounces back with a big one. He'll be fine.

Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (vs. Houston): See Michael Vick.

Terrell Owens (vs. New Orleans): Only 17 yards last week. He'll get more than that against the Saints.

Lance Moore (at Cincinnati): He's quietly put together a good fantasy season. Cincy is not a good team. I think he finds the endzone this week.

Johnny Knox (at Detroit): He's Jay Cutler's favorite target. And Detroit's secondary looked pitiful last week against the Patriots.

Malcom Floyd (vs. Oakland): No Nnamdi Asomugha. And no Vincent Jackson, most likely. Gates is hurt. Do you remember what Floyd did the last time he faced the Raiders? 8 catches, 213 yards, and a TD. To the starting lineup with you!

Tony Moeaki (at Denver): He scored last week after being held out of the previous game with a head injury. Denver's defense is not bad. Moeaki is having a pretty good rookie season. If you've been going with a tight end rotation this year, he could be a nice fill in.

Week 10: Great Expectations

Thursday night games start up again this week! I don't know about the rest of you, but I personally hate them. Mainly because I don't get the NFL Network up here. Anyway, Ravens are at the Falcons tonight. Also, unrelated, but earlier in the year I declared Terrell Owens to be no better than a #3 WR. Well, now he's the #1 WR out of everyone! If you listened to me, whoops. Anyway, here are the players I think will Exceed Expectations.

Eli Manning (vs. Dallas): Start everyone playing against Dallas! That is all.

David Garrard (vs. Houston): That rule applies to Houston as well.

Sam Bradford (at San Francisco): Will he get you 20 points? Unlikely. But he should be good for something like 15 or so. San Francisco's defense is not that good and allowed 18 points to Matt Moore in Week 7. Bradford's better than Moore.

Rashard Mendenhall (vs. New England): His carries had dropped to 15 for each of Weeks 7 and 8 before bouncing back nicely to 22 last week against Cincinnati. The Patriots just allowed 32 points to Adrian Peterson and 31 fantasy points to Peyton Hillis. All aboard the Mendenhall train!

Jahvid Best (at Buffalo): He hasn't done much of anything since he exploded in Week 2. But if there is anything a running back in a slump needs, it's a matchup with Buffalo. I also like Kevin Smith in case you're in a deep league or just have an emergency.

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Denver): I feel like I put them here every week. They're playing Denver, the worst defense against fantasy RBs. Start 'em.

Fred Jacksvon (vs. Detroit): Detroit is pretty terrible against the run. Jackson hasn't been that good this year but this looks like it'll be a good week for him.

Hakeem Nicks (vs. Dallas): START EVERYONE AGAINST DALLAS! Heck, you should be starting Steve Smith and even Mario Manningham.

Anquan Boldin (at Atlanta): He's been rather inconsistent lately but Atlanta is pretty bad against the pass. I think he schools Dunta Robinson and finds the endzone.

Dez Bryant (at New York Giants): Since Jon Kitna has taken over, he has had 23, 8, and 12 points and, in the last two games, 16 total receptions. Kitna's looking to him often and, chances are, the Cowboys will be down early and have to throw.

Braylon Edwards (at Cleveland): He's playing his old team, a team he hasn't been shy about trashing. He's gonna need to back up his words.

Mike Wallace (vs. New England): I loved him in the preseason and, since Big Ben has come back, he's been money. In four games, he has three TDs and game scores of 15, 11, 4, and 17. The Patriots' secondary is not that good. Look for Wallace to burn them deep for at least one score.

Tony Moeaki (at Denver): Denver's defense...nonexistant. Moeaki is a solid source of about 5-6 ppg. Combine the two and I think that Moeaki finds the endzone. Gut feeling, but still...

Chris Cooley (vs. Philadelphia): A rule of thumb for the past few years is Start Your Tight Ends vs. Philadelphia. Cooley is a tight end. His opponent is Philadelphia. Rules, people!

Week 9: Great Expectations

No witty blurb this time. Here are the players who I think Exceed Expectations this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Chicago): Chicago has a great pass defense...but so do the Jets and Ravens, who Fitzpatrick shredded for 20 and 29 fantasy points. I think he does it again this week. Buffalo might actually win one!

Joe Flacco (vs. Miami): He has thrown one INT since Week 3, is coming off a bye, and is playing a Miami secondary that has been porous in the past. Expect to see a lot of Boldin, Heap, Mason, and the rest of the Ravens' offense. You know what? I think Donte Stallworth finds the endzone this week.

Jay Cutler (at Buffalo): He's playing Buffalo. Get him in that lineup.

Matt Forte (at Buffalo): Read: Jay Cutler

Peyton Hillis (vs. New England): He only has one single digit game this whole year. He's coming off a bye. And he's easily the best option on the Cleveland offense. New England's rush defense isn't that good. I expect Hillis to score.

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Oakland): Keep starting both of them. They're both really good and are gonna get you a lot of points. General rule of thumb: start your RBs against Oakland.

Ryan Mathews (at Houston): Houston's defense is so bad and, even with touchdown-vulture Mike Tolbert lurking around, I think the rookie has a good game. He was my preseason pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year and, with so many injuries on that San Diego team, he's gotta do something. Right???

Shonn Greene (at Detroit): Gut call. Nothing more, nothing less.

Beanie Wells (at Minnesota): Also a gut call. I've just got a feeling.

Greg Jennings (vs. Dallas): He's been hot lately. Dallas has not.

Steve Johnson (vs. Chicago): Has a score in every week since Week 3. Dare I say start all your Bills? Nah, but I like him and Fitz this week.

Wes Welker (at Cleveland): He hasn't done much lately but there are a few things to keep in mind here. First, he's playing Cleveland. Second, he's playing Cleveland. Third, I think Bill and the Pats run up the score on Mangini. Fourth, he's playing Cleveland.

Steve Smith (at Seattle): He's not the first option in that Giants offense but he's as good of a slot receiver as they make them. I like Smith this week.

Derrick Mason (vs. Miami): I like Flacco. I like everyone on the Ravens offense this week. Mason plays on the Ravens offense. Therefore....

Benjamin Watson (vs. New England): I think he finds the endzone against his old team.

Jeremy Shockey (at Carolina): This guy is actually pretty talented. He'll get his catches.

Jacob Tamme (at Philadelphia): Peyton Manning can make anybody a fantasy starter. Tamme is Dallas Clark lite.

Week 6: Predictions and Great Expectations

Okay, couple of things. First, I obviously didn't get to do my Great Expectations for Week 6. And, since I'm low on time, I won't be able to give any reasoning for my picks. Just know that these are the players who I think have a great Week 6.

• Vince Young (at Jacksonville)
• Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland)
• Alex Smith (vs. Oakland)
• Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. Detroit)
• Ryan Torain (vs. Indianapolis)
• Jamaal Charles (at Houston)
• Michael Bush (at San Francisco)
• Malcom Floyd (at St. Louis)
• Kenny Britt and Nate Washington (at Jacksonville)
• Mike Wallace (vs. Cleveland)
• Steve Smith (vs. Detroit)
• Davone Bess (at Green Bay)
• Zach Miller (at San Francisco)
• Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland)
• Brent Celek (vs. Atlanta)
• Tony Moeaki (at Houston)

Sorry for the delay but I've been rather busy this week. Okay, on to our predictions!

Season Standings:

Tim: 40-36 (7-7)

Dan: 36-40(4-10)

Yes, it was a bad week for me. The upsets that I gambled on didn't turn out and the ones that I didn't ended up winning. Phooey. Oh well, Tim has a four win lead on me. Here are our predictions for Week 6.

Seattle at Chicago

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Chicago

Miami at Green Bay

Tim: Miami

Dan: Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

San Diego at St. Louis

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Detroit at New York Giants

Tim: New York Giants

Dan: New York Giants

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Tim: Philadelphia

Dan: Atlanta

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Kansas City at Houston

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New York Jets at Denver

Tim: Denver

Dan: New York Jets

Oakland at San Francisco

Tim: Oakland

Dan: San Francisco (Dammit, why do I keep picking these guys???)

Dallas at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Dallas

Indianapolis at Washington

Tim: Washington

Dan: Indianapolis

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

We have six games picked differently this week. Let's see what happens!

Story Lines of the Week

• Baltimore travels to New England in a rematch of the first round of the 2009 playoffs.
• Dallas visits Minnesota in the battle of the disappointing, 1-win teams.
• Alex Smith plays for his job as the 0-5 49ers take on Jason Campell and the 2-3 Raiders.
• It's the battle of the running backs on Monday Night as Chris Johnson's Titans take on Maurice Jones-Drew's Jaguars.
• Kyle Orton looks to continue his hot start and pick up a win against Mark Sanchez and the 4-1 Jets.
• Rookie QB Colt McCoy gets his first career start as Big Ben returns from suspension in Pittsburgh.
• The Falcons and the Eagles square off in the Battle of the Birds. Will Michael Vick play against his old team?
• Newly acquired Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks visit the Bears as Jay Cutler returns from injury.

Week 5: Great Expectations

I'm going to use this space to vent some of my fantasy frustration that I built up in the past week. In one of my main leagues, a fairly deep 10 team league, that starts a QB, two RBs, one RB/WR flex, three WRs, a TE, D/ST, and K, I was debating between two spots: one was my flex spot and the other was my 3rd wide receiver.

For a flex, I was trying to decide between either Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Justin Forsett. I wound up going with Mathews because he was said to be healthy and, in theory, the starter, which pushed him ahead of Tolbert on the depth chart, and that he had the potential for a bigger game against a terrible Arizona defense. Mathews ended up having a mediocre game (12 points), which was better than Forsett (7 points) but worse than Tolbert (16). I still think I made the right call and think that Mathews ends up exceeding expectations this week (see below).

And, in the other spot, I had to choose between Terrell Owens and Johnny Knox. Owens had been consistent but unspectacular through three weeks, posting games of 5, 5, and 4 points. Knox, on the other hand, had been seeming to develop good chemistry with Jay Cutler and had games of 5, 8, and 9 points. I looked at the numbers and decided to go with Knox. And, naturally, Cutler gets hurt and helps get Knox his worst game of the year with 2 points. Owens, meanwhile, goes bonkers for 28 points, his best game since Week 11 of 2007 (8 catches, 173 yards, 4 TDs). I would go on to lose my fantasy game by 5 points. Okay, venting over. Here's who I think Exceeds Expectations this week.

Eli Manning (at Houston)

Houston's secondary is bad. It's so bad, it should be called a tertiary. It's so bad, I think that myself and a group of my friends could play against them and we could wind up as a fantasy flex play. This is a secondary that is 31st in terms of defense of fantasy quarterbacks. Last week, Bruce Gradkowski had a 14 point game against them. Teams have thrown at least 30 times against them every game this year, which means that teams know their weakness. Interestingly, Dallas was the team that threw the least. How often will you see that happening? Anyway, Eli plays Houston this week. Eli is better than Bruce Gradkowski. Eli has alternated his good games with bad ones. Eli had a bad one last week. Eli's due. Eli's a top 10 QB this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Jacksonville)

In a mood to gamble? Why not try Fitz? Jacksonville is dead last in terms of defense against fantasy QBs, allowing an average of almost 22 ppg to the QB. Fitz has 2 TDs in each of the past two weeks, including last week against a very good Jets secondary. Fitz has the potential for a decent fantasy day in what could wind up being the ugliest game of the weekend.

Joe Flacco (vs. Denver)

Another QB playing a lower tier fantasy QB defense. The Broncos rank 30th against fantasy QBs and Flacco looked very good against the Steelers last week. He should be a top 10 option this week.

Peyton Hillis (vs. Atlanta)

Keeping that streak alive, Hillis scored another TD last week, giving him four on the year, one in each game. He's the guy to own on the Browns (the only one) and, most importantly, is the only running back getting touches. He's a must start. That's right, a must start. And, who knows, might wind up being a top 10 back by the end of the year. Wow, who would've thought that out of that Arkansas backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis that it would be Hillis who was the most valuable fantasy player?

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Indianapolis)

Now, if I actually had to choose, I think I'd end up starting Jones over Charles. Charles has more upside but, in three games, Jones has 52 carries to Charles' 34. I don't know why he's getting so many more, but he is and we need to accept that. But note that Charles is averaging 7 ypc to Jones' 4.2. I think both are capable of being fantasy starters but I have Jones over Charles. In the long run, however, I think Charles overtakes Jones. For now, however, you have to play the cards you're dealt. The Colts are 26th against fantasy running backs so feel free to start each of them.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at Oakland)

They're playing Oakland. Need I say more?

Beanie Wells (vs. New Orleans)

Last week, Wells complained about not getting enough carries (he had 5 for 19 yards) and his lack of involvement in the offense. With the team's switch to Max Hall at QB, I think this winds up being the game where they rely on the running game the most. I'm expecting a good game from Beanie (or at least a lot of carries).

Terrell Owens (vs. Tampa Bay)

Fun fact: T.O. has the second most targets of any wide receiver (after Roddy White). And, thanks to last week's performance, is 4th in yards among wide receivers. He had a long TD last year against Atlanta and I expect him to burn a Tampa corner deep at one point or another this week. Even if he doesn't he gets more targets than he probably should and, at this point, is a potential fantasy starter.

Donald Driver (at Washington)

He has TDs in three out of four games this year and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With Green Bay's run game being, as ESPN's Matthew Berry put it, Aaron Rodgers bootlegs and quick screens, Driver should be serviceable for the rest of the year as a fantasy starter. There are simply too many weapons on that offense for defenses to contain. And Driver has been reaping the benefits.

Hakeem Nicks (at Houston)

Read what I said about Eli Manning. And who do you think he's gonna be throwing to?

Percy Harvin (at New York Jets)

Newly acquired Randy Moss lets Harvin go back to the position he is best suited for: slot receiver. He'll be like Wes Welker was with the Patriots when Moss was there. I wouldn't go and start him this week but I would definitely pick him up if I could or buy low if someone is willing to part with him. I expect him to have a good rest of the season.

Marques Colston (at Arizona)

Dammit, I said it last week and I'll say it again! He's gotta break out one of these weeks!

Dez Bryant and Roy Williams (vs. Tennessee)

Kyle Orton just proved that you can throw all over Tennessee. And did you know that Bryant and Williams each have the same amount of targets? That's right, 20 each. Bryant leads in receptions but Williams leads in yards and TDs. Yes, both take a backseat to Austin, but each have produced so far this year. You can do much worse.

Santonio Holmes (vs. Minnesota)

I don't know, call it a gut feeling, but I think that Sanchez winds up looking for him a lot. I wouldn't start him this week but keep an eye on him and see how he does.

Greg Olsen (at Carolina)

Jay Cutler isn't starting and I have a feeling that he winds up being Todd Collins' security blanket and gets a lot of checkdowns. Again, just a gut feeling.

Dustin Keller (vs. Minnesota)

5 TDs in three weeks. Yeah, I'm a believer. I'd say he's a must start tight end.

Brent Celek (at San Francisco)

Kevin Kolb is starting again and, if you watched the game last week, you noticed that he seemed to check down to his tight ends and running backs on just about every single play. And, when they got to the red zone, who did he look for? Yep. Celek.

I've learned from my mistake last week and am starting T.O. Watch Knox go off with Collins under center...

Week 4: Great Expectations

This would've been up earlier if it wasn't for me getting swamped with homework this week. Anyway, I was almost completely wrong with my predictions from last week, getting only Darren McFadden and Tony Romo right. Not a good week. 2/10. Anyway, here are the players that I think wind up exceeding expectations for week 4. With four teams on a bye (Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, and Buccaneers), some of you might be looking for fill in starters. Hopefully, this helps.

Chad Henne (vs. New England)

Last week, Henne showed us why many had him projected as a big sleeper for 2010. He threw for 363 yards and 2 TDs against a very capable Jets pass defense (albeit, without Darrelle Revis) on his way to a 20 fantasy point game. This week, he draws the Patriots, who are 26th in terms of opposing quarterback fantasy points. They've given up 19, 22, and 14 points in the first three weeks of the year. And I don't see anybody in that secondary who can match up with Brandon Marshall. If you have Romo and are looking for a substitute, you could do a whole lot worse than Henne.

Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler is the 5th fantasy QB this year and is playing the Giants, who are 10th against opposing QBs in fantasy points. But those stats about the Giants D are kinda misleading. In week 1, they played Carolina and, let's face it, Carolina's QB situation is in shambles. Next, they faced Peyton Manning and got lit up. In week 3, they played against Vince Young, who only needed to throw it 16 times in a win. I see Cutler as being closer to Manning than Young or Moore/Clausen and the Giants looked terrible last week. I don't see them getting much better. Cutler looks good to go.

Michael Vick (vs. Washington)

Comeback player of the year? If you were lucky enough to nab the #2 fantasy quarterback in free agency (or if you drafted him, more power to you), ride the train as long as you can. He's been phenomenal this year and now draws the Redskins' 26th ranked fantasy QB defense. Vick's a must start from here on out. Woof.

Arian Foster (at Oakland)

After exploding for 41 points in week 1, Foster has managed only 12 and 10 points in weeks 2 and 3. I say only because, well, he set the bar really high with his week 1 performance. Now he faces an Oakland defense that has given up an average of 21 ppg to fantasy running backs. Yeah, I'd say start him.

Darren McFadden (vs. Houston)

I had him on this list last week and I'll put him here again. He's finally a feature back this year! And he's looked the part too. If Oakland wants to have any shot against the Texans, they're gonna need to use this guy. He's the biggest playmaker on the team and I'd be shocked if Houston gets beat through the air by Bruce Gradkowski. I'd say McFadden's just about a must start at this point. Of course, that could change at the drop of a hat (or an Al Davis).

Justin Forsett (at St. Louis)

If you are a Forsett owner and saw his stats from last week, you probably were breathing a sigh of relief. He finally got all of the carries and Pete Carroll stopped using Julius Jones and let Leon Washington do his kick returns. Now he gets St. Louis which, if you remember the rule from last year, "If you're player is going up against St. Louis, you start him." Yes, I'm a bit hesitant because I want to see him in the feature back role for two weeks in a row but, again, with bye weeks, go right ahead.

Ryan Mathews (vs. Arizona)

He was inactive last week with an ankle injury but all signs point to go for this week. Arizona is 29th against fantasy running backs and Mathews is better than your average running back. Just make sure he's active. He should be, but just be positive.

Mark Clayton (vs. Seattle)

Who would've guessed that St. Louis was just what Marky Mark needed? Through three games, he's the 13 best receiver in fantasy. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. Bradford looks to him early and often and Clayton catches about two thirds of the passes thrown his way. Seattle allows the 25th most points to fantasy receivers and Clayton's performance through three games makes him a solid #2 receiver.

Johnny Knox (at New York Giants)

I mentioned Jay Cutler above and Knox is his preferred target. He's a deep threat and has seen his numbers improve each game this year. I think he finds the end zone this week on a deep ball. He's due.

Kevin Walter (at Oakland)

Three receivers have scored in every game this year. They are Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Walter, the numbers 1, 5, and 7 fantasy receivers respectively. I expect Nnamdi Asomugha to be on Andre Johnson this week and for Walter to get open and extend his streak to four games.

Jeremy Maclin (vs. Washington)

He's got Kevin Walter numbers but better. And you already know what I think about Vick. Start him.

Marques Colston (vs. Carolina)

He's gotta break out one of these weeks, right? Right???

Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

Finley is the fourth tight end in fantasy and has yet to score a TD. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? Tight ends don't get yards, they get TDs! But Finley, who has been targeted 21 times, has caught 17 of them, for an 81% completion percentage. He's gotta find the end zone one of these weeks and, when he does, his numbers will be crazy. Start him until further notice.

Jeremy Shockey (vs. Carolina)

He had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD last week and looked like the tight end the Saints wanted when they acquired him. Carolina doesn't give up that many points to tight ends but I think Shockey does well this week. With Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Visanthe Shiancoe on a bye this week, Shockey's a more than capable fill in.

I hope to get my Do Not Want list up tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your fantasies.

Week 3: Great Expectations

That's two weeks in the books. And we had a couple of players break out last week. And two of them were both in the same game. Jahvid Best and LeSean McCoy had 40 and 30 points respectively and, for the most part, found themselves on the bench in many leagues. I, for one, said to bench Best because I was concerned about his ypc and the fact that he needed TDs to put up big fantasy numbers. Yes, I was dead wrong. But will these guys exceed expectations again? And, if they won't, who will?

Tony Romo (at Houston)

In the past two weeks, Houston has allowed 21 fantasy points (to Donovan McNabb) and 29 (to Peyton Manning). All that the Cowboys have done for the past two weeks is throw the ball. Do you really think they're going to stop throwing when they find a miserable pass defense? Start Romo with confidence.

Alex Smith (at Kansas City)

For those of you who watched last week's Monday Night game, you were probably impressed by Alex Smith's 2 minute drill to put the 49ers in a position to force OT. I thought that he looked very good throughout, with the exception of his first INT when he threw it behind Frank Gore, leading to a tipped ball. Now he gets KC who let Seneca Wallace throw for 229 and 1 TD. Smith is much better than Wallace and I expect him to do what he does best: get the ball to Frank Gore. If you're in need of a QB this week, Smith could be a nice fill-in.

Shaun Hill (at Minnesota)

Okay, this one could be a bit of a stretch, but hear me out. I'm not saying you should start Hill but I can see him exceeding expectations this week. Look at the facts. He's playing Minnesota, one of the best run defenses in the league. Last week, he threw for 335 and 2 TDs against Philadelphia, a pretty good pass defense. Yes, he had 3 turnovers, but he still had a 20 point fantasy day. If Detroit wants to have any shot in the world this week, they're going to need to throw. If he just drops back and chucks it up to Calvin Johnson, he could post a solid fantasy day.

Darren McFadden (at Arizona)

Now this is what the Raiders wanted when they drafted him. On the season, Run-DMC has 48 carries for 240 yards and 8 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD. Arizona is not good and DMC is basically the only weapon that the Raiders have. Expect him to get the ball. A lot. He should be in a for a good day.

LeSean McCoy (at Jacksonville) and Jahvid Best (at Minnesota)

Of course I had to put them in here! Did you see them last week?! Now, McCoy has a much more favorable matchup but for what Best doesn't get in rushing yards, expect him to get in receiving yards. Start each of them. Aren't they both currently top 3 RBs?

Pierre Thomas (vs. Atlanta)

Reggie Bush is out for at least 6 weeks which will make it all but certain that Thomas will get the carries. And the catches. Drew Brees spreads the ball around and Thomas grabbed 8 receptions last week. Atlanta has allowed rushing TDs each of the past two weeks and I expect Thomas to make it three in a row. Consider him a high #2 RB this week.

Hines Ward (at Tampa Bay)

I said it last week and I'll say it again. He's the security blanket for whoever is the QB for Pittsburgh. Last week, he didn't really get anything because the Steelers didn't need to throw. Their defense won it for them. Whether it's Batch or Leftwich under center, expect them to look to Ward. And often.

Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens (at Carolina)

Carolina has looked pretty bad against the pass, allowing Mike Williams to score a TD on a nice catch and run. Ochocinco and Owens are both better than Williams and I wouldn't be surprised if they both find the endzone this week.

Calvin Johnson (at Minnesota)

See Shaun Hill.

Okay, before I continue with my last WR, I'm going to show you two sets of numbers.

1. 7 catches, 91 yards

2. 3 catches, 44 yards

Now, neither of these stats are that impressive. But do you know who's stats they are? I'll give you a clue. Both are 2nd year WRs and both were taken in the first round of the draft. Figure it out? Player 1 is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Player 2 is Michael Crabtree.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (at Arizona)

Again, I'm not saying to start DHB. Just that I think he will exceed expectations. But he looked pretty good last week and he has the speed to beat any secondary in the game. Sure, he may not have the hands, but if he catches one long TD, he has a good day. And his numbers this year are better than Crabtree's. Was Al Davis on to something back when he drafted him??? Nah, probably not.

Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Detroit)

He's Favre's favorite target, no doubt. He's scored 13 and 8 points these past two weeks and he'll probably score again this week. Start him.

Week 2: Great Expecations

Trouble in San Diego? What happened there, Chargers? A team that everyone, and I can't stress everyone enough, picked for AFC West Champs went down to Kansas City, who amassed a spectacular 62 yards passing and were outgained 389 yards to 197. Is there panic in San Diego? If there isn't there certainly is concern. As there was all across the board for the first week of the season.

It was an interesting Week 1. There were plenty of fantasy studs (*cough* Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice *cough*) who were barely in the boxscores while it was the middle round picks who excelled. Arian Foster looked ridiculous and is a must start going forward until he proves otherwise. Now, as mentioned before, players who make the Great Expectations list are players who I think will do well this week and, while not necessarily should be started if you have a stud as an alternative, could be a solid play. So, without any more waiting, here are my Great Expectations for Week 2.

Philip Rivers (vs. Jacksonville)

I admit, I was nervous about Rivers this year without Pro Bowlers Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson, both of whom are still holding out. But Rivers put those fears to rest with a very good showing in a loss to Kansas City on Monday Night. Rivers completed 22 passes on 39 attempts for 298 yards and 2 TDs (1 to Antonio Gates, 1 to Legedu Naanee). However, he did lose 2 fumbles. Still, Rivers still looked like a stud and I would start him with confidence from here on out. In the preseason, I ranked Rivers at 7th behind Romo. I'd bump him up to 6th now.

Matt Ryan (vs. Arizona)

While I'm not crazy about Ryan and actually feel that he has regressed, I would start him this week if I had questions at QB. He's playing Arizona, a team that let Sam Bradford throw for 253 yards last week. Sure, they had 3 INTs but one of those came on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. Ryan is a better NFL QB than Bradford at this point. And Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are a lot better than Mark Clayton and...who is the St. Louis TE? I expect the Atlanta offense to show up this week after being almost nonexistent last week.

Michael Vick (at Detroit)

Okay, this one is if you're really hurting at QB. But he plays Detroit. And, if you saw the Eagles play last week, you might have noticed something: Vick looked really good. He was throwing it well and looked like the Vick of old when he decided to use his feet. I think a week of practicing with the first team offense will allow him and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to get more comfortable with each other and have all three of them put up better numbers. So, if you're in a hole at QB or are in a Eh, what the hell? kind of mood, you could do a whole lot worse than Vick.

Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson(vs. New England)

This is a gut call. But if there's one thing the Jets can do, it's run the ball. Sure, they didn't show it last Monday. But that's because the only thing the Jets showed was that they lacked discipline. That, and that Mark Sanchez is not good (which Tim and I both said before the season). So, when you have a bad QB, what do you do? You run it. And when you play a team like the Patriots, who are bound to score, what do you do? You throw it! And who does Mark Sanchez throw to? I'll give you a clue: It wasn't really his receivers. Mark Sanchez likes to check it down and who will reel in those passes? Look up.

Brandon Jackson (vs. Buffalo)

Ryan Grant is done for the year which means that Jackson is now the feature back in Green Bay. Buffalo is bad. Aaron Rodgers is good. Green Bay is good. Green Bay will get up early. Green Bay will then run the ball. Do the math. If he's available in your league, go go go!

Marion Barber and Felix Jones (vs. Chicago)

If there was one thing I noticed from the Cowboys Redskins game, it was that Dallas actually looked really good running the ball. Both Barber and Jones looked to have a good first step and were running downhill the entire game. While they split carries evenly (Barber was 8 for 39 and Jones was 8 for 38), I expect that they find the endzone this week. That's right. I think both score TDs.

Hines Ward (at Tennessee)

God damn it, I don't want to write this. But I like Ward this week. A solid possession receiver is exactly what a young quarterback like Dennis Dixon likes to look for and Ward is the definition of a possession receiver. He runs crisp routes and has pretty good hands. Last week, he caught 6 passes for 108 yards. And I expect Tennessee to target Mike Wallace to avoid getting burned by the deep ball. Expect a bunch of short gains for Ward but eventually those catches and yards will begin to pile up.

Wes Welker (at New York Jets)

Speaking of things that I learned from the Ravens-Jets game, the Jets corners can't cover multiple good receivers. The Patriots have two very good receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Something tells me that Revis will stick Moss, leaving Welker to do what he does best. When he played against the Jets last year, he caught 15 passes for 192 yards and added an 11 yard run. 20 fantasy points? I'd take it.

Donald Driver (vs. Buffalo)

With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, I pretty much like everyone on Green Bay. I expect Driver to get a few catches, possibly a touchdown and then kinda watch as the Packers proceed to run all over the Bills. If you start him, be warned: the Packers will probably not throw the whole game.

Dez Bryant (vs. Chicago)

He had a team-high 12 targets last week, catching 8 of them for 56 yards. I expect those numbers to go up and for the rookie to find the endzone for the first time in his NFL career. He's too special to not get a catch so you're pretty much guaranteed to get some points. This kid's gonna be good.

John Carlson (at Denver)

It's sad that for all of the throwing Matt Hasselbeck did last week against San Francisco, he only found Carlson three times. Expect those numbers to go up this week. Carlson is too talented for Seattle to not get him the ball and Hasselbeck has even said that he likes Carlson as a fantasy tight end. And Hasselbeck plays fantasy! If you don't have a top tier tight end, Carlson could be your answer.

Chris Cooley (vs. Houston)

Cooley managed 6 catches for 80 yards last week against Dallas and seemed to be developing some chemistry with QB Donovan McNabb. Houston did let Dallas Clark score a TD against them last week and Chris Cooley is Dallas Clark light. Like, really light. Still, you could do worse than Cooley this week.

Okay, my Do Not Want list should be up tomorrow. Until then, you stay classy, San Diego.

Week 1: Great Expectations

Well, week 1 starts in two days. So it's time to get those fantasy lineups set. If you're anything like me, you've got questions at some position somewhere on your team. Now, these will not be fantasy studs (AP, Drew Brees, etc.) but pretty much picked from the rest of the crop. So here are some players who I think exceed their expectations in week 1.

Exceeds Expectations

Jay Cutler (vs. Detroit)

Cutler opens up the year at home against Detroit, last year's worst defense against fantasy QBs. And Cutler, like him or not, did not have a terrible fantasy season last year. It wasn't pretty, statistically, but he was a decent source of fantasy points. In two games against Detroit last year, Cutler threw for 417 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Aside from two games against Detroit, there were only two games where Cutler did not have an interception: week 2 against Pittsburgh and week 13 against St. Louis. My verdict: start Cutler.

Kyle Orton (at Jacksonville)

This is more of a matchup play than anything else. Jacksonville is the 29th worst defense against fantasy QBs and Orton is a smart enough player to dissect them. His numbers won't end up being spectacular this week but, if you're in a bind at QB (why would you be in a bind at QB before week 1 even starts????), why not take a shot. However, I AM NOT SAYING BENCH YOUR TOP QB IN FAVOR OF KYLE ORTON! If you have Brees or whoever, go for it. But I don't think I needed to tell you that.

Chris Johnson (vs. Oakland)

Alright, this is a one-time thing. I normally wouldn't have a player like Chris Johnson here but the matchup is too much. Oakland is 32nd in terms of points allowed to fantasy running backs. You can hear Chris Johnson licking his lips. Okay, I will never put another elite player in this again.

Cadillac Williams (vs. Cleveland)

The Bucs cut Derrick Ward which means they're content with letting Williams carry the load, at least for now. Williams got double digit carries in every game but two last year and in last year's season opener against Dallas, he ran for 97 yards and 1 TD. And now he gets Cleveland. I like Williams this week.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (at Buffalo)

I'm going to predict that just about anybody against Buffalo will make the Exceeds Expectations section. As long as they are both healthy, I think they split the carries just about 50-50 and I'm feeling that each will find the end zone in week 1. However, if I had to choose one, I would go with Ronnie Brown.

Malcom Floyd (at Kansas City)

I've been high on Malcom Floyd all preseason and have found myself reaching for him in just about every fantasy draft that I do so Monday night will show me if I was dead on or way out in left field. But I do like just about everyone on the Chargers against the Chiefs. Gates will be the top target in that offense, at least until Vincent Jackson gets back (between you and me, I don't think he puts on a Chargers uniform this year), but Floyd is a freak athlete and will get his. I'm thinking he starts strong in week 1.

Johnny Knox (vs. Detroit)

See Jay Cutler. I'm thinking that Knox and Cutler have developed some sort of chemistry on the field. We'll see on Sunday.

Michael Crabtree (at Seattle)

Crabtree showed flashes of greatness last year and I think that rolls over into this year. Opening against Seattle sure is a good way to start.

Jermichael Finley (at Philadelphia)

Philadelphia has good corners but can't cover tight ends. Finley has looked like a monster in the preseason and I'm buying the hype. Start him this week. Hell, start him every week! I say he finishes as the 4th best tight end.

Kellen Winslow (vs. Cleveland)

Cleveland is not very strong at linebacker and that's exactly who will be covering Winslow. Also, look for Winslow to put his best foot forward as he faces his old team. Start Winslow.

Falls Short

Derek Anderson (at. St. Louis)

St. Louis is not a good pass defense. Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I think he finds Larry Fitzgerald multiple times and maybe gets him one score. I also think he finds the Rams' cornerbacks multiple times and maybe for one score.

Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Atlanta)

I'm not on board the Mendenhall train. I think that teams stack the box against him and he doens't break through. I'm also worried about his fumbling issues. I don't think it's fixed. And Atlanta's run defense is pretty good (13th in the league against fantasy RBs).

Santana Moss (vs. Dallas)

Dallas' corners are pretty good and I don't think McNabb will be at full strength. While I like Moss this year as a sleeper, this is not the week to test him.

Tony Gonzalez (at Pittsburgh)

Now, I still think Tony Gonzalez is the best tight end to ever play the game and I think that he still has a good year this season. It's just that Pittsburgh's linebackers are really good and Atlanta has plenty of other weapons to use. Gonzo will get some catches this week. Just don't expect great numbers.

Alright, there you have it. Week 1 starts Thursday night. Be there.