Week 8: Predictions

This is very close to gametime. But here they are and here are the Season Standings.

Tim: 57-47 (9-5)

Dan: 51-53 (7-7)

And, without further ado, let's get to this week's picks.

Miami at Cincinnati

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Miami

Jacksonville at Dallas

Tim: Jacksonville

Dan: Jacksonville

Washington at Detroit

Tim: Washington

Dan: Detroit

Buffalo at Kansas City

Tim: Kansas City

Dan: Kansas City

Carolina at St. Louis

Tim: St. Louis

Dan: St. Louis

Green Bay at New York Jets

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Denver at San Francisco

Tim: Denver

Dan: Denver (My first week not picking the 49ers!)

Tennessee at San Diego

Tim: San Diego

Dan: Tennessee

Seattle at Oakland

Tim: Oakland

Dan: Seattle

Minnesota at New England

Tim: New England

Dan: New England

Tampa Bay at Arizona

Tim: Arizona

Dan: Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh at New Orleans

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: New Orleans

Houston at Indianapolis

Tim: Houston

Dan: Indianapolis

Wow. Seven games are different. And there's only about 25 minutes until kickoffs.

Week 7: Predictions

No matter what I do, I just can't seem to gain any ground on Tim in the Season Standings. In fact, with the exception of Week 2, Tim has either beaten me or tied with every week's predictions. Maybe I should just start copying off of him. Anyway, here are the current Season Standings:

Tim: 48-42 (8-6)

Dan: 44-46 (8-6)

Cincinnati at Atlanta

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: Atlanta

Buffalo at Baltimore

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Washington at Chicago

Tim: Washington

Dan: Washington

Philadelphia at Tennessee

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Philadelphia

Jacksonville at Kansas City

Tim: Kansas City

Dan: Kansas City

Pittsburgh at Miami

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

Cleveland at New Orleans

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

St. Louis at Tampa Bay

Tim: St. Louis

Dan: St. Louis

San Francisco at Carolina

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco (Make that picking SF in 7 out of 7 weeks. Currently, I'm 1 for 5.)

Arizona at Seattle

Tim: Seattle

Dan: Seattle

Oakland at Denver

Tim: Denver

Dan: Denver

New England at San Diego

Tim: New England

Dan: San Diego

Minnesota at Green Bay

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Green Bay

New York Giants at Dallas

Tim: New York Giants

Dan: Dallas

Alright, it looks like we have four games picked differently this week. Which likely means that Tim will win again...

Story Lines of the Week

• Brett Favre and the Vikings return to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
• The Giants face the Cowboys in an important divisional contest as Dallas looks to get back into the division race.
• New England, fresh off a tough victory against the Ravens, now travels west to San Diego to face the 2-4 Chargers.
• The Cardinals take on the Seahawks for first place in the NFC West.
• The Redskins have been looking good of late and now get Jay Cutler and the Bears.
• Kevin Kolb starts once again as the Eagles play the Titans in the Battle of the 4-2 teams.
• Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman lead their surprising 3-win teams as the Rams visit the Buccaneers.
• The 1-5 49ers try to stay alive as they face the 0-5 Panthers in what can only be described as the Game of the Weak.

The Adam Swanson Quote of the Week #3

The third great offering from the enigma that is the mind of Adam Swanson.

When Matt was trying to get Adam to tell him something.

"I can't tell you, you're right there!"

Week 6: What I Learned

I've been getting behind on posting so I'll just go through What I Learned from this past week before moving on to my Great Expectations for the week. However, I would like to point out that I am now 1-5 when it comes to picking games involving San Francisco. They've been killing me all year but, damn it, I still think they win the division!

1. Oh Michael Turner, where art thou? In one of my keeper leagues, I elected to keep both Michael Turner and Frank Gore in the hopes of building a very solid running back corps. I went on to draft Ryan Mathews in the 3rd, Tony Romo in the 4th, and Jermichael Finley (damn) in the 5th, before I selected a wide receiver. I was convinced that my RBs would be my strength and WRs would be my downfall. Now, six weeks in, I realized I was wrong. Show of hands, who has been annoyed by Michael Turner this year? Yep, that's what I thought. So far, he only has 1 TD and two games where he has exceeded 10 points. He is the 19th overall RB, behind Maurice Jones-Drew (also disappointing) and Mike Tolbert (who is actually a fullback!). This lead me to think: which preseason studs should you sell or which should you buy low on?
   
   For Michael Turner, I say buy low. Maurice Jones-Drew, I would try to sell. Ray Rice is actually 13th in fantasy points but, considering he was basically a top 5 pick, I say buy as low as you can. But your window is closing fast. If I have DeAngelo Williams, I'm trying to sell him for whatever I can get at this point. Cedric Benson is a buy low, I think. I have a feeling that Cincinnati will start using him a lot more. Shonn Greene would be a sell, I think, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts seeing more action down the line. I think Ryan Mathews is a perfect buy low and I expect him to have a monster 2nd half of the season and I'm trying to get him in as many leagues as possible. Beanie Wells should be sold and, even with a rookie QB, I'm not expecting much from him for the rest of the year. I'm buying Knowshon Moreno and, with Kyle Orton's hot start, I think he puts up some decent receiving numbers for the rest of the year.
   
   
2. An Eagles resurgence under Kevin Kolb? Whoever is throwing the ball in Philadelphia will be getting it to Jeremy Maclin, but when I think Kolb will actually use him more. In the past two weeks, he has had six and seven catches for 254 yards and 2 TDs. I think he finishes the season higher than DeSean Jackson. Kolb is also a viable fantasy starter for as long as he starts in Philly. And LeSean McCoy should be starting every week.
   
   
3. Maybe a terrible week was exactly what Dwayne Bowe needed. A week after he dropped what seemed like every pass thrown to him, Dwayne Bowe reeled in six of the nine passes thrown his was for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Do I buy it? Well, he certainly has the talent to do it consistently. But I don't think he has a quarterback who will let him do it consistently. If you have Dwayne Bowe and someone offers you a trade for him, I'd say do it.
   
   
4. I am never sitting Calvin Johnson again, no matter how close to not playing he is. Flashback to Sunday morning. I'm sitting at my computer, looking at my fantasy team, debating who to start between Johnny Knox and Calvin Johnson. I ultimately went with Knox, because I thought one bad hit from the Giants secondary would knock Johnson out of the game. And, while Knox did not have a bad game by any means (5 catches for 120 yards. Granted, he did have 11 targets) and got me 12 points, Johnson had 5 for 146 and a TD, for 20 points. He has 5 TDs on the year (should have six but there was that ruling in Chicago in Week 1) and I will never bench him again. I think he finishes in the top 5 of WRs.
   
   
5. Do you remember the 2008 Denver season where they seemed to lose a running back each week? Well, I do. And I think that, on one team, I owned every single one of them at one point or another. Notable names from that list that are performing well this year: Peyton Hillis (9th overall RB and has no less than 8 points in every game this year) and Ryan Torain (starting RB in Washington and lead all RBs in points this week). I like both very much for the rest of the year and both will jump in my rankings the next time they come out.
   
   
6. Week 6: Concussionfest. Now, I've had my fair share of concussions in my life, mostly from stupid things, but I recognize how dangerous they can be. There were a bunch of concussions and helmet-to-helmet hits this past week. Todd Heap, DeSean Jackson, Josh Cribbs, and Mohamed Massaquoi were all on the receiving end on some of these hits. The only one I really thought was a cheap shot was the one on Heap. The hit on Jackson looked legal and I think it was just bad luck that both Jackson and Dunta Robinson got hurt. James Harrison's hit on Cribbs was legal and his one on Massaquoi...I don't know. It didn't look illegal but I heard the rule about it. The rule says that if a player has made the catch but hasn't had time to defend himself (caught the ball but hasn't turned to move and defend himself), the defender cannot explode into and upward on the hit and that's what Harrison did. I don't like it, but it is the rule. Any fantasy implications here? None, other than you won't be seeing Jackson or Massaquoi this week.
   
   
7. Bye bye, Dallas Clark. So, in the two leagues that I care the most about, my tight ends were Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark. Damn, damn, damn! Both are now on Injured Reserve and are out for the rest of the year. So, from now on, when I draft a league that I care about, I will post my tight ends and you will know which tight ends not to draft.
   
   
8. Colt McCoy...future fantasy stud? Browns' rookie QB, Colt McCoy (who was not supposed to play this year), got his first start against the tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense this past week, thanks to injuries to Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. And he looked pretty good. Here are his numbers: 23/33 for 281 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and 4 carries for 22 yards. Sure, it was only 13 fantasy points but that is actually the most that the Steelers defense has allowed to an opposing QB this year. I think McCoy's gonna be good. Keep an eye on him.

Week 7's Great Expectations should be up later today.

Week 6: Predictions and Great Expectations

Okay, couple of things. First, I obviously didn't get to do my Great Expectations for Week 6. And, since I'm low on time, I won't be able to give any reasoning for my picks. Just know that these are the players who I think have a great Week 6.

• Vince Young (at Jacksonville)
• Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland)
• Alex Smith (vs. Oakland)
• Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. Detroit)
• Ryan Torain (vs. Indianapolis)
• Jamaal Charles (at Houston)
• Michael Bush (at San Francisco)
• Malcom Floyd (at St. Louis)
• Kenny Britt and Nate Washington (at Jacksonville)
• Mike Wallace (vs. Cleveland)
• Steve Smith (vs. Detroit)
• Davone Bess (at Green Bay)
• Zach Miller (at San Francisco)
• Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland)
• Brent Celek (vs. Atlanta)
• Tony Moeaki (at Houston)

Sorry for the delay but I've been rather busy this week. Okay, on to our predictions!

Season Standings:

Tim: 40-36 (7-7)

Dan: 36-40(4-10)

Yes, it was a bad week for me. The upsets that I gambled on didn't turn out and the ones that I didn't ended up winning. Phooey. Oh well, Tim has a four win lead on me. Here are our predictions for Week 6.

Seattle at Chicago

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Chicago

Miami at Green Bay

Tim: Miami

Dan: Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

San Diego at St. Louis

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Detroit at New York Giants

Tim: New York Giants

Dan: New York Giants

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Tim: Philadelphia

Dan: Atlanta

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Kansas City at Houston

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New York Jets at Denver

Tim: Denver

Dan: New York Jets

Oakland at San Francisco

Tim: Oakland

Dan: San Francisco (Dammit, why do I keep picking these guys???)

Dallas at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Dallas

Indianapolis at Washington

Tim: Washington

Dan: Indianapolis

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

We have six games picked differently this week. Let's see what happens!

Story Lines of the Week

• Baltimore travels to New England in a rematch of the first round of the 2009 playoffs.
• Dallas visits Minnesota in the battle of the disappointing, 1-win teams.
• Alex Smith plays for his job as the 0-5 49ers take on Jason Campell and the 2-3 Raiders.
• It's the battle of the running backs on Monday Night as Chris Johnson's Titans take on Maurice Jones-Drew's Jaguars.
• Kyle Orton looks to continue his hot start and pick up a win against Mark Sanchez and the 4-1 Jets.
• Rookie QB Colt McCoy gets his first career start as Big Ben returns from suspension in Pittsburgh.
• The Falcons and the Eagles square off in the Battle of the Birds. Will Michael Vick play against his old team?
• Newly acquired Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks visit the Bears as Jay Cutler returns from injury.

Week 6 Power Rankings

Week 6 will commence in just a couple of days, so here’s Second & Inches’ power rankings. Here’s the format:

Rank|Team|(Record)|Div. Rank|(Div. Record)|Next Game|Comments

1 Baltimore Ravens (4-1) 1^st AFC North (2-1) |@Patriots

Baltimore has staged some extremely tough road victories, and stuffing Denver last week gives the NFL’s #2 defense a lot of confidence on its way into Tom Brady’s turf.

2 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) 2^nd AFC North (0-1) |v.Browns

Big Ben makes his return after a 4-week suspension, and who better to get back to football speed against then the Browns, who will start rookie QB Colt McCoy.

3 New York Jets (4-1) 1^st AFC East (3-0) |@Broncos

The Jets’ defense has been stifling and Mark Sanchez has yet to throw a pick this season, and should only get better with the addition of Santonio Holmes.

4 Atlanta Falcons (4-1) 1^st NFC South (1-0) |@Eagles

Matt Ryan has started winning on the road finally, and Michael Turner looks much better than last year. Throw in the 10^th-best D, and you’ve got a helluva team in Atlanta.

5 New England Patriots (3-1) 2^nd AFC East (2-1) |v.Ravens

Let’s hope Deion Branch makes up for the loss of Randy Moss with an extremely stingy Ravens’ defense on its way in.

6 Chicago Bears (4-1) 1^st NFC North (2-0) |v.Seahawks

With Jay Cutler, this team is way better than with Todd Collins. However, the defense has shown that it can take over a game and win when its QB throws 4 picks.

7 Indianapolis Colts (3-2) 3^rd AFC South (0-2) |@Redskins

The Colts have been the team to beat for so long, it seems to finally be catching up with them. Peyton still looks great, but the defense and running game have been lackluster, with way more problems in the latter.

8 Washington Redskins (3-2) 1^st NFC East (2-0) |v.Colts

Donovan McNabb has given this team a chance to win this year. With an ugly come-from-behind win against Green Bay, the ‘Skins have proven they can stage an upset. Consistency is their next challenge to overcome.

9 Green Bay Packers (3-2) 2^nd NFC North (1-1) |v.Dolphins

The Packers have been completely ravaged early this season by injuries, and with QB Aaron Rodgers receiving a concussion, there’s a lot of pressure on the defense to keep this team afloat.

10 Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) 1^st AFC West (1-0) |@Texans

The Chiefs have a good defense and can win games. To keep it going for the rest of the season, Matt Cassel must step up, or the Chiefs will miss the playoffs yet again.

11 Tennessee Titans (3-2) 4^th AFC South (0-0) |@Jaguars

Ignore any and all division rankings in the AFC South, they all are 3-2. The Titans looked very impressive on both sides of the ball against the Cowboys. Winning their first division game may be the key to what looks like a tough race in the South this year.

12 New Orleans Saints (3-2) 3^rd NFC South (1-1) |@Buccaneers

Drew Brees is talented enough to pick up his game and get the offense back on track. The defense is having a lot of trouble taking the ball away this year, and that’s a huge difference in 2010 from 2009.

13 Houston Texans (3-2) 1^st AFC South (1-0) |v.Chiefs

The Texans can put up huge offense, but they also let huge offense stack up against their woeful secondary. It remains to be seen whether this year is the year they get it together, or if it’s just more of the same ol’ Texans.

14 Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) 3^rd NFC East (0-1) |v.Falcons

Michael Vick wants to play the Falcons, and with him at the helm, the Eagles stand a chance to win this and many other tough conference games. Not so sure about them with Kevin Kolb.

15 New York Giants (3-2) 2^nd NFC East (0-0) |v.Lions

The Giants laid a smack-down on the Texans, but their defense stinks. If Eli Manning can pick apart better defenses, this team will go places. Luckily Detroit’s up next.

16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 2^nd NFC South (1-0) |v.Saints

Capitalizing on turnovers at key moments has kept the Bucs in games this season. Second-year QB Josh Freeman is looking impressive, too. This game against the Saints will be huge.

17 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) 2^nd AFC South (1-0) |v.Titans

The Jaguars have been pretty decent this season, and another AFC South victory would shut the mouths of their doubters.

18 Miami Dolphins (2-2) 3^rd AFC East (1-2) |@Packers

I just realized the three Florida teams are in a row. Anyhow, the Dolphins have a chance to improve their record after a bye week against a banged-up Packers squad.

19 San Diego Chargers (2-3) 3^rd AFC West (0-2) |@Rams

The Chargers look awful on special teams this year, and that’s what is stopping them from being 5-0. They seem to go on an 8+ game winning streak every year, though, so I’m not worried yet.

20 Minnesota Vikings (1-3) 3^rd NFC North (1-0) |v.Cowboys

Things aren’t looking too good for Minnesota, and a lot of people are questioning Brett Favre’s decision to go for a 20^th season. Good to see Randy in purple again, too.

21 Dallas Cowboys (1-3) 4^th NFC East (0-1) |@Vikings

If the ‘Boys lose to the Vikings, their hopes of playing the Super Bowl at home are essentially nullified.

22 Denver Broncos (2-3) 4^th AFC West (0-0) |v.Jets

Kyle Orton is good, but not good enough to make up for the lack of a running game or a solid pass rush or a run-stuffing defense or…

23 Oakland Raiders (2-3) 2^nd AFC West (1-0) |@49ers

Now that the Chargers’ monkey is off their back, the Raiders need to focus on keeping momentum going with a chance to win the wide-open AFC West.

24 Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) 3^rd AFC North (1-1) |BYE

It seems like their decisive victory over the Ravens was ages ago. Besides T.O. being totally bad-ass, the Bengals are in a lot of trouble if they keep losing to teams like the Browns and the Buccaneers. Good time for a bye.

25 Arizona Cardinals (3-2) 1^st NFC West (1-0) |BYE

The Cardinals are playing pretty decent defense, but Max Hall? Really? Really? Isn’t Daunte Culpepper or anyone else a free agent?

26 St. Louis Rams (2-3) 3^rd NFC West (1-1) |v.Chargers

After posting back-to-back wins for the first time in a long time, the Rams got destroyed by the Lions. Strong special teams could bring them back to .500 this week.

27 Seattle Seahawks (2-2) 2^nd NFC West (1-1) |@Bears

I don’t think the Seahawks will be able to get much done outside of excellent KR and PR play (their guys lead the NFC in both) until the QB issues are solved.

28 Cleveland Browns (1-4) 4^th AFC North (1-1) |@Steelers

Colt McCoy is going to get an extremely rude awakening this weekend. The defense in Pittsburgh is already licking their chops.

29 Detroit Lions (1-4) 4^th NFC North (0-3) |@Giants

What a way to gain the first win of the season. If the offense clicks like that once Matthew Stafford returns, we may see a 5- or 6-win season for the cowardly Lions.

30 San Francisco 49ers (0-5) 4^th NFC West (0-1) |v.Raiders

The good news is that they’ve only lost one divisional contest, which means that they can still win the NFC West with a turnaround. Bad news is that they have yet to win, and another loss practically ends what should have been a stellar campaign for the Niners.

31 Buffalo Bills (0-5) 4^th AFC East (0-3) |BYE

A bye week means you can’t lose another one, right?

32 Carolina Panthers (0-5) 4^th NFC South |BYE

Even with 4 interceptions, this team can’t capitalize. Lame.

Week 5: What I Learned

San Francisco. San Francisco. God dammit, San Francisco. Back in the preseason, here is the first two lines that I wrote when Tim and I were doing our preseason predictions for the NFC West:

"I'm probably too high on San Francisco this year but I don't care. I think this is the year they put it all together."

Oops. Well, I was right, in a sense. I was too high on San Francisco. Waaaay too high. I had them pegged at 13-3, Tim at 10-6. Both of us had them finishing 1st in the division. Am I ready to go back on my word? No! I still think they win the division! You heard me. And it's not out of faith in San Francisco but a complete lack of faith in everybody else in the division. Arizona leads the division at 3-2 and I actually think they're the worst team. So far, they've been outscored by 50 points. How are they over .500?! Seattle is going to be horribly inconsistent for the rest of the year and they haven't actually played that well this year. And St. Louis actually looks like the best bet to unseat San Francisco as the best team. But I don't think they will. I'm still picking San Francisco to win the NFC West!

Fun Fact: I've picked SF to win every game this year. I've been wrong each time.

Alright, here's what I learned from Week 5.

1. Thank you, thank you, thank you Malcom Floyd! All preseason, I was saying how high I was on Malcom Floyd. I have him in practically all of my leagues, and I was often taking him in late rounds, simply because people had no idea who he was. But Floyd has been fantastic this year, and is now the #4 wide receiver, thanks to his 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD game against Oakland. I don't think he slows down. But the best part? Oakland has probably the best pass defense he's faced all year. Someone asked me if Floyd is a sell high? No, he's for real.

2. Actually, who saw these top 4 WRs coming? In order, these are the top four scoring wide receivers, in order. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, Austin Collie, Malcom Floyd. Their average rounds drafter? 8th, undrafted, 13th, 9th. Ride the fantasy studs! I think they keep it up. If anybody were to fall out of this group, it would probably be Collie, simply because there are too many other targets in that Colts offense.

3. Another week, another score. Non-QBs who have scored in every week: Peyton Hillis, Antonio Gates. That's it. Hillis didn't have a rushing TD this week but had a nifty catch and made it in for the score. And Gates...what hasn't been said about him? He's a beast. Plain and simple. To put this in perspective, if I had Gates and somebody were to offer me Andre Johnson for him, at this point in the year, I don't think I could accept that deal. He's been that good.

4. God damn it, those injuries! Big fantasy injuries this week. Mark Clayton, who was making a case for Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, is now done for the year. Jermichael Finley, one of the top tight ends in the league, has a torn meniscus and is expected to be out for anywhere from 8 weeks to the whole season (I had him in a bunch of leagues. Damn it!). Calvin Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in garbage time last week (why was he on the field???) and is currently listed as questionable for this week's game against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers got hit and received a concussion on the Packers' last offensive play. He's questionable as well.

5. I've been calling for Ryan Mathews to have a big week for the past two weeks. He looked healthy last week and had 9 carries for 59 yards (9 carries for 55 and a TD the week before) and Mike Tolbert looked awful. 12 carries for 11 yards and a goal line fumble. This week is the week of Mathews (I will say that until it happens)!

6. Greg Jennings vs. Donald Driver. Look at the numbers. Driver has 25 catches for 376 yards and 3 TDs on 34 targets while Jennings has 14 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs on 31 targets. Driver has the better numbers. Driver is the better fantasy play. And, with Finley now out for a significant period of time, expect Driver to get more of his targets. If you can sell high on Jennings, I'd say do it.

7. Here's another one: Chad Ochocinco vs. Terrell Owens. Their numbers: Owens has 31 catches for 476 yards and 2 TDs on 61 targets. Ochocinco has 26 catches for 316 yards and 1 TD on 44 targets. I'm picking Owens. Ocho actually has one more point than Greg Jennings.

8. Ben Roethlisberger comes back this week. Hide your women! With the return of Big Ben, the entire Steelers offense will get a boost and, as a result, so will fantasy players. Mike Wallace is the one who actually gets the biggest boost since he can now get deep balls. I also think Heath Miller's stock rises considerably. Ben looks to him a lot and, if you just lost Jermichael Finley, Miller could be a good fill in.

Just a Clarification: Who Are the Must Starts?

Every week, when I do my list of players who I think will Exceed Expectations, I deliberately leave a group of players off that list because I consider them 'Must Starts' and should be in your starting lineup, regardless of who they are playing. So, these players are as follows:

Quarterbacks

• Peyton Manning
• Aaron Rodgers
• Drew Brees
• Philip Rivers
• Tony Romo
• Tom Brady

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Matt Schaub: Yes, he was great last season. And yes, he is throwing to Andre Johnson. But, while at the beginning of the year I would've had him on this list, he hasn't looked that good this year.
• Kyle Orton: Biggest surprise in fantasy? Kyle Orton. He's been on fire all year and just scored 20 points against the Baltimore Ravens defense, the best defense against fantasy QBs. I don't have him on the list because I am still very slightly worried about his consistency but it's damned close. If you have him, you start him but that's unless you have one of the six QBs mentioned above.
  

Running Backs

• Adrian Peterson
• Chris Johnson
• Frank Gore
• Arian Foster
• Ray Rice
• Rashard Mendenhall
• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Michael Turner
• Steven Jackson

Names that are omitted from the list:

• LeSean McCoy: Durability issues and the lack of 20+ carries are the only things keeping me from putting him on the list. He has four double digit games in five weeks, but has yet to exceed 18 carries. But he's close. Damned close.
• Jahvid Best: Through two weeks, he had 55 points. Since then, 18 points with no double digit games. Consistency please?
• Peyton Hillis: I want to put him on the list. I really do. But I can't because, well, it's the Browns and they're bad. But he's their only option there and has scored in every week this year. He's another one who is just off the list.
• Cedric Benson: I don't trust the Bengals. He's been getting insane amounts of carries but hasn't really done much with them. He'll have good games and he'll have mediocre games. But I don't think he's a must start anymore.
• DeAngelo Williams: He has one double digit game so far this year. Not what you want for a 1st round pick. It's not his fault but Carolina is terrible and they don't seem to be getting better. But Williams is nowhere near my top RBs (I have him at 18th overall and I actually think that's too high).
• Matt Forte: He get's all of the touches but he doesn't seem to run well. The only thing keeping him alive is that he get's a bunch of opportunities. But by no means a must start.

Wide Receivers

• Andre Johnson
• Miles Austin
• Reggie Wayne
• Roddy White
• Randy Moss
• Calvin Johnson
• Brandon Marshall
• Wes Welker
• Anquan Boldin
• Hakeem Nicks

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Larry Fitzgerald: One of the most talented receivers in the league, yes. But his highest weekly total has been 10. It isn't his fault that his QBs are terrible but you have to play the cards you are dealt. I have Fitz ranked at 18 behind Hines Ward (again, I think it's too high).
• Greg Jennings: Last year, he was getting the yards but not the TDs. This year, he's getting the TDs but not the yards. He has gone the past four weeks without eclipsing 40 yards. It seems that Rodgers looks to Driver and Finley before him, for some reason.
• Marques Colston: Hasn't played up to his draft position. At all. I'm very down on Colston (I'm thinking his 24th ranking for the rest of the year is too high).
• Malcom Floyd: I was insanely high on him before the year and after this week's 8 catch, 213 yard, 1 TD effort (27 points), I am sitting back and grinning. He is on the cusp of must start.

Tight Ends

• Antonio Gates
• Dallas Clark
• Jermichael Finley (Is injured and out at least 3 weeks. Obviously, don't start him then)

Names that are omitted from the list:

• Dustin Keller: This isn't so much as my lack of faith in Keller but my lack of faith in Sanchez. I don't think he keeps up this pace for very long.
• Vernon Davis: Take what I said for Keller and replace 'Sanchez' with 'Smith.'
• Tony Gonzalez: Out of five games, he has gone over 50 yards just once. Roddy White is the clear go-to guy in Atlanta and Ryan hasn't looked to Gonzalez nearly as much.

Week 5: Predictions

Last week, Tim and I had the exact same picks and, naturally, both finished the week 6-8. That means, our season standings are currently:

Tim: 33-29 (6-8)

Dan: 32-30 (6-8)

Now for Week 5:

Jacksonville at Buffalo

Tim: Jacksonville

Dan: Buffalo

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Atlanta at Cleveland

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: Atlanta

Denver at Baltimore

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

St. Louis at Detroit

Tim: Detroit

Dan: Detroit

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Green Bay at Washington

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Chicago at Carolina

Tim: Carolina

Dan: Carolina

New York Giants at Houston

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

New Orleans at Arizona

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Tennessee at Dallas

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Dallas

San Diego at Oakland

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

Minnesota at New York Jets

Tim: New York Jets

Dan: Minnesota

Three games different this week. That's three more than last week.

Story Lines of the Week

• Randy Moss makes his Minnesota Vikings (re)debut on Monday night against Darrelle Revis and the Jets.
• Julius Peppers and the Bears return to his old stomping grounds of Carolina.
• Kansas City looks to stay unbeaten at Indianapolis.
• Kyle Orton, who leads the league in passing yards, faces the Ravens' #1 pass defense.
• Rookie QB Sam Bradford looks to get the Rams over .500 against an underrated Detroit Lions defense.
• Kevin Kolb is back under center for the Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco.

Week 5: Great Expectations

I'm going to use this space to vent some of my fantasy frustration that I built up in the past week. In one of my main leagues, a fairly deep 10 team league, that starts a QB, two RBs, one RB/WR flex, three WRs, a TE, D/ST, and K, I was debating between two spots: one was my flex spot and the other was my 3rd wide receiver.

For a flex, I was trying to decide between either Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Justin Forsett. I wound up going with Mathews because he was said to be healthy and, in theory, the starter, which pushed him ahead of Tolbert on the depth chart, and that he had the potential for a bigger game against a terrible Arizona defense. Mathews ended up having a mediocre game (12 points), which was better than Forsett (7 points) but worse than Tolbert (16). I still think I made the right call and think that Mathews ends up exceeding expectations this week (see below).

And, in the other spot, I had to choose between Terrell Owens and Johnny Knox. Owens had been consistent but unspectacular through three weeks, posting games of 5, 5, and 4 points. Knox, on the other hand, had been seeming to develop good chemistry with Jay Cutler and had games of 5, 8, and 9 points. I looked at the numbers and decided to go with Knox. And, naturally, Cutler gets hurt and helps get Knox his worst game of the year with 2 points. Owens, meanwhile, goes bonkers for 28 points, his best game since Week 11 of 2007 (8 catches, 173 yards, 4 TDs). I would go on to lose my fantasy game by 5 points. Okay, venting over. Here's who I think Exceeds Expectations this week.

Eli Manning (at Houston)

Houston's secondary is bad. It's so bad, it should be called a tertiary. It's so bad, I think that myself and a group of my friends could play against them and we could wind up as a fantasy flex play. This is a secondary that is 31st in terms of defense of fantasy quarterbacks. Last week, Bruce Gradkowski had a 14 point game against them. Teams have thrown at least 30 times against them every game this year, which means that teams know their weakness. Interestingly, Dallas was the team that threw the least. How often will you see that happening? Anyway, Eli plays Houston this week. Eli is better than Bruce Gradkowski. Eli has alternated his good games with bad ones. Eli had a bad one last week. Eli's due. Eli's a top 10 QB this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Jacksonville)

In a mood to gamble? Why not try Fitz? Jacksonville is dead last in terms of defense against fantasy QBs, allowing an average of almost 22 ppg to the QB. Fitz has 2 TDs in each of the past two weeks, including last week against a very good Jets secondary. Fitz has the potential for a decent fantasy day in what could wind up being the ugliest game of the weekend.

Joe Flacco (vs. Denver)

Another QB playing a lower tier fantasy QB defense. The Broncos rank 30th against fantasy QBs and Flacco looked very good against the Steelers last week. He should be a top 10 option this week.

Peyton Hillis (vs. Atlanta)

Keeping that streak alive, Hillis scored another TD last week, giving him four on the year, one in each game. He's the guy to own on the Browns (the only one) and, most importantly, is the only running back getting touches. He's a must start. That's right, a must start. And, who knows, might wind up being a top 10 back by the end of the year. Wow, who would've thought that out of that Arkansas backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis that it would be Hillis who was the most valuable fantasy player?

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (at Indianapolis)

Now, if I actually had to choose, I think I'd end up starting Jones over Charles. Charles has more upside but, in three games, Jones has 52 carries to Charles' 34. I don't know why he's getting so many more, but he is and we need to accept that. But note that Charles is averaging 7 ypc to Jones' 4.2. I think both are capable of being fantasy starters but I have Jones over Charles. In the long run, however, I think Charles overtakes Jones. For now, however, you have to play the cards you're dealt. The Colts are 26th against fantasy running backs so feel free to start each of them.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at Oakland)

They're playing Oakland. Need I say more?

Beanie Wells (vs. New Orleans)

Last week, Wells complained about not getting enough carries (he had 5 for 19 yards) and his lack of involvement in the offense. With the team's switch to Max Hall at QB, I think this winds up being the game where they rely on the running game the most. I'm expecting a good game from Beanie (or at least a lot of carries).

Terrell Owens (vs. Tampa Bay)

Fun fact: T.O. has the second most targets of any wide receiver (after Roddy White). And, thanks to last week's performance, is 4th in yards among wide receivers. He had a long TD last year against Atlanta and I expect him to burn a Tampa corner deep at one point or another this week. Even if he doesn't he gets more targets than he probably should and, at this point, is a potential fantasy starter.

Donald Driver (at Washington)

He has TDs in three out of four games this year and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With Green Bay's run game being, as ESPN's Matthew Berry put it, Aaron Rodgers bootlegs and quick screens, Driver should be serviceable for the rest of the year as a fantasy starter. There are simply too many weapons on that offense for defenses to contain. And Driver has been reaping the benefits.

Hakeem Nicks (at Houston)

Read what I said about Eli Manning. And who do you think he's gonna be throwing to?

Percy Harvin (at New York Jets)

Newly acquired Randy Moss lets Harvin go back to the position he is best suited for: slot receiver. He'll be like Wes Welker was with the Patriots when Moss was there. I wouldn't go and start him this week but I would definitely pick him up if I could or buy low if someone is willing to part with him. I expect him to have a good rest of the season.

Marques Colston (at Arizona)

Dammit, I said it last week and I'll say it again! He's gotta break out one of these weeks!

Dez Bryant and Roy Williams (vs. Tennessee)

Kyle Orton just proved that you can throw all over Tennessee. And did you know that Bryant and Williams each have the same amount of targets? That's right, 20 each. Bryant leads in receptions but Williams leads in yards and TDs. Yes, both take a backseat to Austin, but each have produced so far this year. You can do much worse.

Santonio Holmes (vs. Minnesota)

I don't know, call it a gut feeling, but I think that Sanchez winds up looking for him a lot. I wouldn't start him this week but keep an eye on him and see how he does.

Greg Olsen (at Carolina)

Jay Cutler isn't starting and I have a feeling that he winds up being Todd Collins' security blanket and gets a lot of checkdowns. Again, just a gut feeling.

Dustin Keller (vs. Minnesota)

5 TDs in three weeks. Yeah, I'm a believer. I'd say he's a must start tight end.

Brent Celek (at San Francisco)

Kevin Kolb is starting again and, if you watched the game last week, you noticed that he seemed to check down to his tight ends and running backs on just about every single play. And, when they got to the red zone, who did he look for? Yep. Celek.

I've learned from my mistake last week and am starting T.O. Watch Knox go off with Collins under center...

Time to Panic?

Around the NFL, we are now entering the second quarter of the season, and there are still four winless teams. Recently, Dan did a ‘panic button’ for fantasy players, so here’s my take on NFL teams that could use a panic button. In addition to the four winless teams (49ers, Bills, Lions, Panthers), there are a few other teams with some serious (and less serious) issues.

San Francisco 49ers (0-4) 4^th NFC West – 23^rd Overall Offense; 21^st Overall Defense

The 49ers are the NFL’s biggest disappointment in 2010. Dan and I predicted them to go at least ten wins, and now it seems they might struggle to stay under ten losses. They have been unable to score points, with an average of 13 points per game, good for 31^st in the league. QB Alex Smith is under the microscope, and RB Frank Gore hasn’t shown off his talent yet this season.

Concern Level: 65%

Carolina Panthers (0-4) 4^th NFC South – 30^th Overall Offense; 18^th Overall Defense

After the departure of QB Jake Delhomme, the Panthers are having some trouble with their two youngsters at the helm (Matt Moore and rookie Jimmy Clausen). The running game was fairly stagnant for a while, and Clausen is finally gaining some rapport with his receivers. A win at New Orleans was in reach last week, so there’s a chance for this team to escape the division basement.

Concern Level: 50%

Buffalo Bills (0-4) 4^th AFC East – 32^nd Overall Offense; 27^th Overall Defense

The Bills… There’s not much to say here, as I recall my grandparents’ warnings as a young boy (If you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all). Check the numbers above. They’re being gashed by the run and sputtering on offense, too. GM Buddy Nix just requested patience from fans during this ‘painful’ rebuilding phase. Ha.

Concern Level: 80%

Detroit Lions (0-4) 4^th NFC North – 15^th Overall Offense; 26^th Overall Defense

Of the four winless teams, Detroit has the most upside. They’ve been within 5 points in three of their games, and played extremely tough against the Packers in Week 4. After losing starting QB Matthew Stafford early, backup Shaun Hill is looking decent, finally hooking up with Calvin Johnson this past week.

Concern Level: 40%

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) 1^st NFC West – 31^st Overall Offense; 29^th Overall Defense

A division leader with bottom 4 overall stats…? Yeah, we’ve got some problems out in the desert. The Cards have pulled QB Derek Anderson after the first game without an offensive touchdown during head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s tenure. Now with Max Hall at the helm, the Cards look, well, no better.

Concern Level: 50%

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) 3^rd AFC South – 3^rd Overall Offense; 24^th Overall Defense

The Colts are currently standing at 0-2 in their division, which is news to us watching football for the past, say, 10 years. The Texans and Jags have both defeated the Colts, and the defense, which I highly praised early this season, has been a major disappointment, with injuries starting to stack up. Offensively, #18 will be fine with whoever is around him, especially if RB Joseph Addai keeps up his recent good play.

Concern Level: 25%

New England Patriots (3-1) 2^nd AFC East – 11^th Overall Offense; 28^th Overall Defense

I only put the Pats on this list because of the Randy Moss trade. I don’t agree that they are winning games without him, because he doesn’t need to touch the ball to draw double-teams, freeing Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez up in short routes. I don’t think they’ll suffer much, but the Pats must put up offensive production immediately following this bye week.

Concern Level: 15%

Fantasy Rankings Update #1

I'm going to try and update my fantasy rankings once every four weeks. So, the format will be:

Name (Team) [Previous Ranking]

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning (IND) [3]
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB) [1]
3. Drew Brees (NO) [2]
4. Philip Rivers (SD) [7]
5. Tony Romo (DAL) [6]
6. Tom Brady (NE) [5]
7. Matt Schaub (HOU) [4]
8. Kyle Orton (DEN) [22]
9. Jay Cutler (CHI) [10]
10. Joe Flacco (BAL) [9]
11. Matt Ryan (ATL) [16]
12. Brett Favre (MIN) [8]
13. Eli Manning (NYG) [15]
14. Donovan McNabb (WAS) [13]
15. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) [19]
16. Michael Vick (PHI) [Unranked]
17. Chad Henne (MIA) [11]
18. Sam Bradford (STL) [30]
19. Mark Sanchez (NYJ) [27]
20. Carson Palmer (CIN) [12]
21. Josh Freeman (TB) [28]
22. Alex Smith (SF) [17]
23. Vince Young (TEN) [18]
24. Kevin Kolb (PHI) [14]
25. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) [23]
26. Matthew Stafford (DET) [20]
27. David Garrard (JAC) [21]
28. Bruce Gradkowski (OAK) [Unranked]
29. Matt Cassel (KC) [29]
30. Jake Delhomme (CLE) [24]
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) [Unranked]
32. Jimmy Clausen (CAR) [Unranked]
33. Max Hall (ARI) [Unranked]

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN) [2]
2. Chris Johnson (TEN) [1]
3. Frank Gore (SF) [5]
4. Arian Foster (HOU) [24]
5. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) [13]
6. Ray Rice (BAL) [3]
7. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) [4]
8. Michael Turner (ATL) [6]
9. Steven Jackson (STL) [7]
10. LeSean McCoy (PHI) [19]
11. Cedric Benson (CIN) [8]
12. Jamaal Charles (KC) [17]
13. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ) [43]
14. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) [26]
15. Jahvid Best (DET) [33]
16. Daarren McFadden (OAK) [36]
17. Pierre Thomas (NO) [18]
18. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) [11]
19. Ryan Mathews (SD) [12]
20. Peyton Hillis (CLE) [Unranked]
21. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) [49]
22. Shonn Greene (NYJ) [10]
23. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) [16]
24. Beanie Wells (ARI) [14]
25. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) [15]
26. Ronnie Brown (MIA) [23]
27. Thomas Jones (KC) [30]
28. Marion Barber (DAL) [35]
29. Joseph Addai (IND) [22]
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) [Unranked]
31. Ricky Williams (MIA) [25]
32. Fred Jackson (BUF) [37]
33. Ryan Torain (WAS) [Unranked]
34. Cadillac Williams (TB) [40]
35. John Kuhn (GB) [Unranked]
36. Mike Tolbert (SD) [Unranked]
37. Justin Forsett (SEA) [21]
38. Clinton Portis (WAS) [29]
39. Donald Brown (IND) [39]
40. Felix Jones (DAL) [28]
41. Jason Snelling (ATL) [Unranked]
42. LeGarrette Blount (TB) [Unranked]
43. Bernard Scott (CIN) [Unranked]
44. C.J. Spiller (BUF) [27]
45. Michael Bush (OAK) [46]
46. Tim Hightower (ATL) [48]
47. Willis McGahee (BAL) [34]
48. Brandon Jacobs (NYG) [38]
49. Reggie Bush (NO) [32]
50. Correll Buckhalter (DEN) [Unranked]

Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson (HOU) [1]
2. Reggie Wayne (IND) [3]
3. Roddy White (ATL) [4]
4. Miles Austin (DAL) [8]
5. Randy Moss (MIN) [2]
6. Calvin Johnson (DET) [7]
7. Brandon Marshall (MIA) [5]
8. DeSean Jackson (PHI) [11]
9. Anquan Boldin (BAL) [13]
10. Wes Welker (NE) [17]
11. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) [21]
12. Greg Jennings (GB) [9]
13. Austin Collie (IND) [42]
14. Malcom Floyd (SD) [37]
15. Donald Driver (GB) [16]
16. Mike Wallace (PIT) [22]
17. Hines Ward (PIT) [19]
18. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) [6]
19. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) [20]
20. Chad Ochocinco (CIN) [14]
21. Mark Clayton (STL) [Unranked]
22. Santonio Holmes (NYJ) [30]
23. Santana Moss (WAS) [27]
24. Marques Colston (NO) [10]
25. Terrell Owens (CIN) [31]
26. Percy Harvin (MIN) [26]
27. Dez Bryant (DAL) [39]
28. Steve Smith (CAR) [12]
29. Brandon Lloyd (DEN) [Unranked]
30. Kevin Walter (HOU) [44]
31. Johnny Knox (CHI) [36]
32. Michael Crabtree (SF) [15]
33. Eddie Royal (DEN) [Unranked]
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ) [41]
35. Louis Murphy (OAK) [Unranked]
36. Derrick Mason (BAL) [32]
37. Dwayne Bowe (KC) [24]
38. Steve Smith (NYG) [18]
39. Mario Manningham (NYG) [Unranked]
40. Legedu Naanee (SD) [Unranked]
41. Roy Williams (DAL) [Unranked]
42. Kenny Britt (TEN) [38]
43. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) [23]
44. Jacoby Jones (HOU) [47]
45. Lee Evans (BUF) [34]
46. Nate Washington (TEN) [Unranked]
47. Dexter McCluster (KC) [Unranked]
48. Lance Moore (NO) [Unranked]
49. Mike Thomas (JAC) [Unranked]
50. Josh Cribbs (CLE) [Unranked]

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates (SD) [2]
2. Dallas Clark (IND) [1]
3. Jermichael Finley (GB) [4]
4. Dustin Keller (NYJ) [15]
5. Vernon Davis (SF) [3]
6. Tony Gonzalez (ATL) [6]
7. Chris Cooley (WAS) [11]
8. Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN) [12]
9. Zach Miller (OAK) [10]
10. Aaron Hernandez (NE) [26]
11. Greg Olsen (CHI) [18]
12. Jeremy Shockey (NO) [17]
13. Jason Witten (DAL) [7]
14. Kellen Winslow (TB) [8]
15. Tony Moeaki (KC) [Unranked]
16. Todd Heap (BAL) [19]
17. Brent Celek (PHI) [5]
18. Heath Miller (PIT) [13]
19. Owen Daniels (HOU) [9]
20. John Carlson (SEA) [14]
21. Benjamin Watson (CLE) [24]
22. Brandon Pettigrew (DET) [28]
23. Marcedes Lewis (JAC) [21]
24. David Thomas (NO) [30]
25. Rob Gronkowski (NE) [31]
26. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) [23]
27. Bo Scaife (TEN) [22]
28. Tony Scheffler (DET) [27]
29. Kevin Boss (NYG) [16]
30. Evan Moore (CLE) [Unranked]

Suspensions Lifted

It's not often that I take a look at fantasy options, but the free agent acquisitions of three key suspended players can turn some 1-3 or 0-4 teams around.

In New York, the Jets get back WR Santonio Holmes, who should continue adding to Mark Sanchez's growth in his second year as the starting quarterback. Holmes gives the Jets a true No. 1 receiver, and will be far more consistent than Braylon Edwards. Be prepared, opposing defenses.

In Pittsburgh, embattled QB Ben Roethlisberger is back among the team, though Week 5 is their bye. The Steelers played well without him, but having back Big Ben allows WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward to have more value in fantasy leagues, as well as bringing RB Rashard Mendenhall's value up as a viable checkdown option, and an effective power-runner.

And, if you play with a D-player in your league, 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing returns to the Houston Texans this week after a 4-week suspension. The Texans have sorely missed their young play-maker, and he's going to be hungry to prove his worth after the debacle regarding performance-enhancing drugs that nearly cost him his DROY award.

Otherwise, in fantasy, we may see some extra juice out of the Vikings with the acquisition of Randy Moss, who can help Favre's numbers, and draw men out of the box to further help AP.

Week 4: What I Learned

We're a quarter of the way through the season and there is only one team left undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs? Yep, everyone who predicted that one, raise your hand. What, nobody? Todd Haley? No, not even you? Anyway, with the last undefeated team not playing this week, here's what I learned.

1. The unexpected top scorer of the week was...the Patriots D/ST? Yep, the leading points scorer for the week was the Patriots D/ST, thanks to 4 INTs, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, 2 sacks, and 3 TDs, including one kick return. Do they keep it up? I doubt it. I think they're much more of a matchup play, and an iffy one at that. In two weeks this year, they have gotten 49 fantasy points, more than Tony Romo, Roddy White, Dallas Clark, and DeSean Jackson, to name a few. Those games were against Cincinnati (16 pts) and, of course, yesterday against Miami (33 pts). However, in the other two, they managed a grand total of 0 points (-1 against the Jets and 1 against the Bills). My verdict: don't buy into the Pats but if you can sell high, go right ahead.
   
   
2. I think the NFL Fountain of Youth has been discovered. The number 3 and 4 scorers for the week, out of everybody, were Terrell Owens (28) and LaDainian Tomlinson (27), who looked like their 3-years-ago selves. T.O. had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in a loss to the Browns and L.T. (I love these two letter nicknames) who had 19 carries for 133 yards and a TD, as well as 3 catches for 22 yards. Now, the big question on fantasy owners' minds is "Can they keep it up?" I think L.T. can and T.O. might, but that's a very questionable might. L.T. is the clear top RB in New York and, as a result, is the 9th RB overall right now. I think he winds up just outside the top 10 but in the top 15. T.O., on the other hand, looks to be consistent, but more in the 5-6 points per game. He will have these big games every now and then but, for the most part, will be a #3 fantasy receiver. I am proud to say that in my league that starts 3 WRs, I decided to start Johnny Knox over T.O. That wound up being a 26 point difference. I went on to lose by 5. Damn it all.
   
   
3. Arian Foster, top 10 running back. That's four weeks and four double digit games for a guy who went in the 5th-6th round in most drafts. Also, he has three 100 yard games out of four total. Do you know who else has three 100 yard games? Nobody. Prediction: Foster finishes as a top 10 RB, and I might go as far to say in the top 5.
   
   
4. The top pass catcher, out of WRs and TEs, is...Antonio Gates. Yep, Gates has the most points out of all WRs and TEs so far this year. And his stats are crazy. He's scored in every game, has no less than 5 catches in any week, has two 100 yard games in a row, and has caught 24 of the 34 balls thrown his way. So far, he has 24 catches for 386 yards and 6 TDs. For those of you doing the math, he catches a TD once in every four receptions. I doubt he keeps this hot streak up all year but ride him if you've got him.
   
   
5. Let's not forget the third overall pass catcher...Dustin Keller? What has gotten into these tight ends? Okay, for reference, out of tight ends and wide receivers, here are the top four scorers so far.
   1. Antonio Gates
   2. Austin Collie
   3. Dustin Keller (tie)
   3. Reggie Wayne (tie)
   After getting smacked by Ray Lewis and then stepping out of bounds 1 yard short of the first down in Week 1 against the Ravens, Keller has exploded for 17 point, 21 point, and 14 point games in three straight weeks, scoring 5 TDs and catching 17 balls for 241 yards. I had him as my 15th tight end overall in the preseason. Consider him a top 10 option from here on out.
   
   
6. An odd assortment of the top 5 QBs for the week. There were only 5 QBs to score over 20 points this week. In order, they were David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Manning is a stud and must start every week. No more to say about him. Kyle Orton has now scored 20+ points in three straight weeks and is currently the 4th best QB. I think he's legit. Shaun Hill did what every Lions QB needs to do: get the ball to Calvin Johnson, who had 6 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs on 11 targets. I think he actually needs to get the ball more. He could be a decent bye week fill in, depending on the matchup. Fitzpatrick now has 2 TDs in two straight weeks after being declared the starter. He could also be a bye week filler in deeper leagues. Honestly, the only one I'm not buying is the guy who lead all QBs in points this week: David Garrard. I think this was the perfect definition of a fluke. I still couldn't bring myself to start him.
   
   
7. Injuries, injuries, injuries. A bunch of big names either got injured or were limited by injuries this week.
   
   Heading the list is Michael Vick, who is week-to-week with rib cartilage damage. Kevin Kolb starts while he's out and, honestly, who knows what's going to happen with the QB situation in Philly.
   
   Darren McFadden injured his hamstring in the 3rd quarter against Houston and did not return. He's said to be day to day. If he were to miss time, Michael Bush would get the start. McFadden actually has double digit points every week this week.
   
   Ahmad Bradshaw came up limping after a play in the fourth quarter. He will probably be limited this week in practice but should be back for next week. Expect Brandon Jacobs to see more carries this week.
   
   Clinton Portis says he will probably not play this week against Green Bay. Ryan Torain looks to be the primary back while he is out. Torain looked good against Philadelphia with 18 carries for 70 yards and a TD. He's a must-add, if he hasn't been already.
   
   LeSean McCoy is out indefinitely with a fractured rib. McCoy has been a top 5 RB so far this year so this is a big blow. Mike Bell will likely start in his place.
   
   Ryan Mathews was said to be healthy but Norv Turner insisted on keeping Mike Tolbert as the primary back. Mathews still managed a TD to save his fantasy day but Turner says that Mathews will be the primary back moving forward and was being eased back. He has Oakland this week. No worries.
   
   Ray Rice didn't get the start against Pittsburgh but after Willis McGahee went down with an injury, Rice got some carries. McGahee says he'll be back this week and Rice has said that he felt no problems with his knee. No worries.
   
   Andre Johnson didn't play this week and is still listed as day-to-day. If he plays, he's a top option. If he doesn't, well, then he's not.
   
   Jay Cutler suffered a concussion and did not return to action Sunday night against the Giants. But not before he turned in a 42 yard, 4 turnover performance. Fantasy owners were not pleased. He is expected to play against the Panthers this week but be sure to monitor his performance throughout the week.
   
   
8. Okay, I am now officially wrong about the 49ers. They are now 0-4 and my 13-3 preseason prediction is gone. So far, they've played two good games and two terrible games. As of now, I think Frank Gore is the only 49er who you can start with confidence every week, but Vernon Davis should be a top 10 tight end by the end of the year. They can't be this bad all year, can they? Can they????
   
   
9. Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand? Oh, to take down the Steelers. It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day (12 pts) but it showed that he can beat the top tier teams, something that he was being criticized heavily for all year. I expect him to keep getting better and finish in the top 10-top 15 QBs.

The Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks are on byes this week. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, and Brian Cushing all return from suspensions. Kansas City looks to remain undefeated but have the Colts and Texans in the next two weeks.

Also, the Bills have just traded running back Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 pick. The Seahawks are said to release RB Julius Jones. This hurts Justin Forsett's value and we'll look at how their running game looks in two weeks when they play the Bears.

Week 4: Predictions

After three weeks, we've got three undefeated teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Bears) and five winless teams (Lions, Panthers, 49ers, Bills, Browns). The current prediction standings are:

Tim: 27-21 (10-6)

Dan: 26-22 (10-6)

Here are our Week 4 Predictions:

San Francisco at Atlanta

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

New York Jets at Buffalo

Tim: New York

Dan: New York

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Detroit at Green Bay

Tim: Green Bay

Dan: Green Bay

Denver at Tennessee

Tim: Tennessee

Dan: Tennessee

Seattle at St. Louis

Tim: Seattle

Dan: Seattle

Carolina at New Orleans

Tim: New Orleans

Dan: New Orleans

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Houston at Oakland

Tim: Houston

Dan: Houston

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Washington at Philadelphia

Tim: Philadelphia

Dan: Philadelphia

Arizona at San Diego

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

Chicago at New York Giants

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Chicago

New England at Miami

Tim: Miami

Dan: Miami

Holy crap, this is wild. Barring changes, we each have the same picks for every game.

Week 4: Great Expectations

This would've been up earlier if it wasn't for me getting swamped with homework this week. Anyway, I was almost completely wrong with my predictions from last week, getting only Darren McFadden and Tony Romo right. Not a good week. 2/10. Anyway, here are the players that I think wind up exceeding expectations for week 4. With four teams on a bye (Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, and Buccaneers), some of you might be looking for fill in starters. Hopefully, this helps.

Chad Henne (vs. New England)

Last week, Henne showed us why many had him projected as a big sleeper for 2010. He threw for 363 yards and 2 TDs against a very capable Jets pass defense (albeit, without Darrelle Revis) on his way to a 20 fantasy point game. This week, he draws the Patriots, who are 26th in terms of opposing quarterback fantasy points. They've given up 19, 22, and 14 points in the first three weeks of the year. And I don't see anybody in that secondary who can match up with Brandon Marshall. If you have Romo and are looking for a substitute, you could do a whole lot worse than Henne.

Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler is the 5th fantasy QB this year and is playing the Giants, who are 10th against opposing QBs in fantasy points. But those stats about the Giants D are kinda misleading. In week 1, they played Carolina and, let's face it, Carolina's QB situation is in shambles. Next, they faced Peyton Manning and got lit up. In week 3, they played against Vince Young, who only needed to throw it 16 times in a win. I see Cutler as being closer to Manning than Young or Moore/Clausen and the Giants looked terrible last week. I don't see them getting much better. Cutler looks good to go.

Michael Vick (vs. Washington)

Comeback player of the year? If you were lucky enough to nab the #2 fantasy quarterback in free agency (or if you drafted him, more power to you), ride the train as long as you can. He's been phenomenal this year and now draws the Redskins' 26th ranked fantasy QB defense. Vick's a must start from here on out. Woof.

Arian Foster (at Oakland)

After exploding for 41 points in week 1, Foster has managed only 12 and 10 points in weeks 2 and 3. I say only because, well, he set the bar really high with his week 1 performance. Now he faces an Oakland defense that has given up an average of 21 ppg to fantasy running backs. Yeah, I'd say start him.

Darren McFadden (vs. Houston)

I had him on this list last week and I'll put him here again. He's finally a feature back this year! And he's looked the part too. If Oakland wants to have any shot against the Texans, they're gonna need to use this guy. He's the biggest playmaker on the team and I'd be shocked if Houston gets beat through the air by Bruce Gradkowski. I'd say McFadden's just about a must start at this point. Of course, that could change at the drop of a hat (or an Al Davis).

Justin Forsett (at St. Louis)

If you are a Forsett owner and saw his stats from last week, you probably were breathing a sigh of relief. He finally got all of the carries and Pete Carroll stopped using Julius Jones and let Leon Washington do his kick returns. Now he gets St. Louis which, if you remember the rule from last year, "If you're player is going up against St. Louis, you start him." Yes, I'm a bit hesitant because I want to see him in the feature back role for two weeks in a row but, again, with bye weeks, go right ahead.

Ryan Mathews (vs. Arizona)

He was inactive last week with an ankle injury but all signs point to go for this week. Arizona is 29th against fantasy running backs and Mathews is better than your average running back. Just make sure he's active. He should be, but just be positive.

Mark Clayton (vs. Seattle)

Who would've guessed that St. Louis was just what Marky Mark needed? Through three games, he's the 13 best receiver in fantasy. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. Bradford looks to him early and often and Clayton catches about two thirds of the passes thrown his way. Seattle allows the 25th most points to fantasy receivers and Clayton's performance through three games makes him a solid #2 receiver.

Johnny Knox (at New York Giants)

I mentioned Jay Cutler above and Knox is his preferred target. He's a deep threat and has seen his numbers improve each game this year. I think he finds the end zone this week on a deep ball. He's due.

Kevin Walter (at Oakland)

Three receivers have scored in every game this year. They are Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Kevin Walter, the numbers 1, 5, and 7 fantasy receivers respectively. I expect Nnamdi Asomugha to be on Andre Johnson this week and for Walter to get open and extend his streak to four games.

Jeremy Maclin (vs. Washington)

He's got Kevin Walter numbers but better. And you already know what I think about Vick. Start him.

Marques Colston (vs. Carolina)

He's gotta break out one of these weeks, right? Right???

Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

Finley is the fourth tight end in fantasy and has yet to score a TD. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? Tight ends don't get yards, they get TDs! But Finley, who has been targeted 21 times, has caught 17 of them, for an 81% completion percentage. He's gotta find the end zone one of these weeks and, when he does, his numbers will be crazy. Start him until further notice.

Jeremy Shockey (vs. Carolina)

He had 8 catches for 78 yards and a TD last week and looked like the tight end the Saints wanted when they acquired him. Carolina doesn't give up that many points to tight ends but I think Shockey does well this week. With Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Visanthe Shiancoe on a bye this week, Shockey's a more than capable fill in.

I hope to get my Do Not Want list up tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your fantasies.