Week 3: What I Learned From Sunday

We're three weeks in and we're starting to get an idea of how things will develop from here on out. This is also around the time where I learn how good my predictions were (or how horribly wrong I was). With that being said, here's what I learned from the third Sunday of the year.

1. There were more unexpected big scorers this week. Last week, I mentioned how there will always be the unexpected big scorer. While nobody broke 40 points this week, that isn't to say that there weren't any surprises. For that, I want to look at the wide receivers that scored in the top 5 this week. They were, in order, Anquan Boldin (32), Austin Collie (29), Lance Moore (26), Roy Williams (23), Brandon Lloyd (22), Brandon Marshall (22), and Mike Wallace (22). What do I take away from this? For starters, out of these seven players, only two are the #1 receivers on their team (Boldin and Marshall). Interestingly, they were both offseason acquisitions. Also, of those seven, only three have what I would call top tier QBs throwing them the ball, in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo. Say what you want about Romo but I view him as a top tier QB.
   
   Now, the biggest question on fantasy owners' minds is, "Which of these performances are for real and which are one time things?" Well, I want to label Boldin and Marshall as those most likely to repeat these types of games. They're the top receivers on their offenses. The players I would say not to bother with are Moore, Lloyd, and Williams. Not that they don't have the talent, but I just think that they are too low on the pecking order to string together any sort of fantasy consistency. Which brings me to my last point.
   
   I think that Collie and Wallace are for real and that their performances on Sunday are the most impressive of the bunch. Each are young players in their 2nd year and each have dynamic QBs throwing them the ball (even though Roethlisberger isn't back yet). And each have proven veterans lining up opposite them at the line (Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne, for those of you who didn't know). But which receiver will ultimately be more consistent out of Collie and Wallace? If I had to choose, I think I'd go with Collie. Wallace might end up with better numbers but that's because he's a deep threat. He was only targeted 4 times on Sunday (granted, he caught three of them for 100 and 2 TDs) but Collie was targeted 16 times! The only player with more targets this week was Brandon Marshall. So, in summary, both are for real. I'd probably start each one every week from here on out until they show otherwise.
   
   
2. What is up with the San Francisco 49ers? This is a team that I had at 13-3 in the preseason. Well, I'm not wrong yet. All they need to do is win out. But a week after putting up a great fight against the New Orleans Saints, they go to Kansas City and get embarrassed. If not for a meaningless last second TD, they would have lost 31-3. Which would have meant that in games against the Chiefs and Seahawks (who had a combined 9-23 last year), the 49ers would be outscored 62-9. It is most certainly time to panic in San Francisco.
   
   It's easy to call San Francisco the biggest disappointment so far this year. Who else has been disappointing? Another California team, the San Diego Chargers. They were beaten by Seattle 27-20, despite outgaining the Seahawks 518-271. Both of their losses have come against, guess who, the Chiefs and Seahawks. Is it time to panic in San Diego? Not quite, but I would keep my finger close to the button.
   
   
3. Alright, let's give some love to the big surprises of the year. I've already discussed them above but certainly the Chiefs and Seahawks top the list. I'm still not convinced by the Chiefs but this certainly helped them in my book. Cassel actually didn't look awful, for a change, and they are one of two 3-0 teams (the other being Pittsburgh). However, I want to see the Chiefs win a meaningful game on the road before I jump onboard.
   
   The Seahawks are a weird team this year. They look great against San Francisco, get thumped by Denver, and then play a great half against San Diego followed by an unimpressive half against San Diego. So which team are they? I say...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with the bad one. And this is why. As Philip Rivers and the Chargers got rolling in the second half yesterday, who bailed out the Seahawks? It wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. It wasn't Justin Forsett. It wasn't the defense. It wasn't even the coaching. It was Leon Washington's two kick return TDs. If you're relying on your kick returner to singlehandedly get you points, you won't win many games. Also, this was the first game that I saw the Seahawks give Forsett the carries he deserves. He's easily the best back they have but has been inexplicably forced to share carries with Julius Jones and Washington. But, today, he was given 17 of the team's 21 carries (Hasselbeck had 3, Washington had 1). I told you to hold onto him, fantasy owners.
   
   
4. Fantasy MVP...Kyle Orton? Yep, believe it or not, Orton has been electric so far this year. He went into this game as the 8th best QB and then threw for 476 yards. The worrying bit is that he only had 1 TD but I think that's more of a product of Denver's less than stellar receivers than Orton's inefficiencies. With bye weeks starting up next week, he's a more than capable fill in and could even turn out to be a solid fantasy starter. In fact, he's currently the 4th fantasy QB (granted, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have yet to play). Still, don't sleep on the Orton.
   
   
5. The fearsome Ravens defense versus Peyton Hillis. Advantage, Hillis. Yep, that's right. The same Ravens defense who rarely allows a 100 yard rusher gave up 144 yards and a TD to Hillis, who was filling in for injured starter Jerome Harrison. I think he made a pretty good case to get the starting job, don't you? Did you know that he's scored a rushing TD in three straight games? Do you know what other running backs have done that this year? That's right. None.
   
   
6. It was meant to be a shootout in Houston. Instead, it was just the Cowboys shooting. Tony Romo looked pretty good, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Matt Schaub...didn't, as he went for 241, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Expect Romo to continue to put up good numbers and, also, expect Schaub's stats to go up. This was an off day for just about everyone on the Texans.
   
   
7. I don't normally talk about kickers here but two kickers missed relatively easy game winners today. First, and ugliest, was New Orleans' Garrett Hartley. He's missed 3/7 on the year so far and even the ones that he's made haven't been pretty. And, after he missed a 29 yarder in overtime today, I'd be surprised if he has a job for much longer. The Saints have reportedly been looking at John Carney. So we'll see what happens there.
   
   In other news, we have Sebastian Janikowski, who is known for being scary looking and having a monster leg. Fun fact: he was also drafted in the 1st round back in 2000. Janikowski has now missed field goals in all three games this year, including a 3/6 effort today, culminating in a 32 yard miss that would've won the game. Instead, he pushed it left and the Cardinals escaped with a win. Sad for Raiders fans, yes, especially after he made a 54 yarder in the 1st quarter. But, as Oakland RB Darren McFadden said, "If he kicked that ball 100 times, he's going to make 99 of them. It just so happened that he missed that one." Basically, even if he has the talent, I wouldn't want to be relying on Janikowski as my fantasy kicker. Or Hartley, for that matter.
   
   
8. Nice performances by 3rd year QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who has been criticized for not performing well on the road, went into New Orleans and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs while throwing for 228 and 2 TDs. His numbers weren't spectacular but he didn't commit any turnovers which is a big help when you play a good team like the Saints. But, even with this performance, I'm not about ready to call Ryan a fantasy starter.
   
   Flacco, on the other hand, could be. A week after the worst performance of his career, Flacco got to play around with new target Anquan Boldin, going on to throw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with Boldin catching 142 of those yards and all of the TDs. Next, Flacco gets a tough Steelers defense. I'd be nervous about starting him for that game but you can do a whole lot worse. I have Flacco as a top 10 QB from this point onward.
   
   And, last but not least, Chad Henne. Last week, I said it was time to push the panic button and drop Henne. Not so fast, everybody! This was the Henne that we thought was going to be a sleeper fantasy QB. 363 and 2 TDs against a good Jets pass defense (okay, they were missing Revis) but he looked good. If you dropped him, sorry and try and pick him back up. If you're still holding onto him, well, you're smarter than me.

I'm in the situation on one of my teams where I have a heavy reliance on the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys, arguably the three most disappointing teams so far this year. I think that both the Cowboys and Chargers can right the ship. 49ers...I dunno. But, that's all for today. The Packers visit the Bears on Monday night in what looks to be a great divisional battle. Rodgers vs. Cutler. Can somebody say shootout?

Week 3: Predictions

It's been two weeks. The current standings are:

Tim: 17-15 (10-6)

Dan: 16-16 (8-8)

Our Week 3 Predictions:

San Francisco at Kansas City

Tim: San Francisco

Dan: San Francisco

Detroit at Minnesota

Tim: Minnesota

Dan: Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

Tim: New England

Dan: New England

Atlanta at New Orleans

Tim: Atlanta

Dan: New Orleans

Tennessee at New York Giants

Tim: New York

Dan: Tennessee

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Tim: Pittsburgh

Dan: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati at Carolina

Tim: Cincinnati

Dan: Cincinnati

Cleveland at Baltimore

Tim: Baltimore

Dan: Baltimore

Dallas at Houston

Tim: Dallas

Dan: Houston

Washington at St. Louis

Tim: Washington

Dan: Washington

Philadelphia at Jacksonville

Tim: Philadelphia *Tim edit

Dan: Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Denver

Tim: Indianapolis

Dan: Indianapolis

Oakland at Arizona

Tim: Oakland

Dan: Arizona

San Diego at Seattle

Tim: San Diego

Dan: San Diego

New York Jets at Miami

Tim: Miami

Dan: New York

Green Bay at Chicago

Tim: Chicago

Dan: Green Bay

Well, the picks are looking a little different this week. We've got seven different picks this week out of sixteen games. Only a few days left until Sunday. Let's see what happens.

Week 3: Great Expectations

That's two weeks in the books. And we had a couple of players break out last week. And two of them were both in the same game. Jahvid Best and LeSean McCoy had 40 and 30 points respectively and, for the most part, found themselves on the bench in many leagues. I, for one, said to bench Best because I was concerned about his ypc and the fact that he needed TDs to put up big fantasy numbers. Yes, I was dead wrong. But will these guys exceed expectations again? And, if they won't, who will?

Tony Romo (at Houston)

In the past two weeks, Houston has allowed 21 fantasy points (to Donovan McNabb) and 29 (to Peyton Manning). All that the Cowboys have done for the past two weeks is throw the ball. Do you really think they're going to stop throwing when they find a miserable pass defense? Start Romo with confidence.

Alex Smith (at Kansas City)

For those of you who watched last week's Monday Night game, you were probably impressed by Alex Smith's 2 minute drill to put the 49ers in a position to force OT. I thought that he looked very good throughout, with the exception of his first INT when he threw it behind Frank Gore, leading to a tipped ball. Now he gets KC who let Seneca Wallace throw for 229 and 1 TD. Smith is much better than Wallace and I expect him to do what he does best: get the ball to Frank Gore. If you're in need of a QB this week, Smith could be a nice fill-in.

Shaun Hill (at Minnesota)

Okay, this one could be a bit of a stretch, but hear me out. I'm not saying you should start Hill but I can see him exceeding expectations this week. Look at the facts. He's playing Minnesota, one of the best run defenses in the league. Last week, he threw for 335 and 2 TDs against Philadelphia, a pretty good pass defense. Yes, he had 3 turnovers, but he still had a 20 point fantasy day. If Detroit wants to have any shot in the world this week, they're going to need to throw. If he just drops back and chucks it up to Calvin Johnson, he could post a solid fantasy day.

Darren McFadden (at Arizona)

Now this is what the Raiders wanted when they drafted him. On the season, Run-DMC has 48 carries for 240 yards and 8 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD. Arizona is not good and DMC is basically the only weapon that the Raiders have. Expect him to get the ball. A lot. He should be in a for a good day.

LeSean McCoy (at Jacksonville) and Jahvid Best (at Minnesota)

Of course I had to put them in here! Did you see them last week?! Now, McCoy has a much more favorable matchup but for what Best doesn't get in rushing yards, expect him to get in receiving yards. Start each of them. Aren't they both currently top 3 RBs?

Pierre Thomas (vs. Atlanta)

Reggie Bush is out for at least 6 weeks which will make it all but certain that Thomas will get the carries. And the catches. Drew Brees spreads the ball around and Thomas grabbed 8 receptions last week. Atlanta has allowed rushing TDs each of the past two weeks and I expect Thomas to make it three in a row. Consider him a high #2 RB this week.

Hines Ward (at Tampa Bay)

I said it last week and I'll say it again. He's the security blanket for whoever is the QB for Pittsburgh. Last week, he didn't really get anything because the Steelers didn't need to throw. Their defense won it for them. Whether it's Batch or Leftwich under center, expect them to look to Ward. And often.

Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens (at Carolina)

Carolina has looked pretty bad against the pass, allowing Mike Williams to score a TD on a nice catch and run. Ochocinco and Owens are both better than Williams and I wouldn't be surprised if they both find the endzone this week.

Calvin Johnson (at Minnesota)

See Shaun Hill.

Okay, before I continue with my last WR, I'm going to show you two sets of numbers.

1. 7 catches, 91 yards

2. 3 catches, 44 yards

Now, neither of these stats are that impressive. But do you know who's stats they are? I'll give you a clue. Both are 2nd year WRs and both were taken in the first round of the draft. Figure it out? Player 1 is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Player 2 is Michael Crabtree.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (at Arizona)

Again, I'm not saying to start DHB. Just that I think he will exceed expectations. But he looked pretty good last week and he has the speed to beat any secondary in the game. Sure, he may not have the hands, but if he catches one long TD, he has a good day. And his numbers this year are better than Crabtree's. Was Al Davis on to something back when he drafted him??? Nah, probably not.

Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Detroit)

He's Favre's favorite target, no doubt. He's scored 13 and 8 points these past two weeks and he'll probably score again this week. Start him.