Week 3: What I Learned From Sunday

We're three weeks in and we're starting to get an idea of how things will develop from here on out. This is also around the time where I learn how good my predictions were (or how horribly wrong I was). With that being said, here's what I learned from the third Sunday of the year.

1. There were more unexpected big scorers this week. Last week, I mentioned how there will always be the unexpected big scorer. While nobody broke 40 points this week, that isn't to say that there weren't any surprises. For that, I want to look at the wide receivers that scored in the top 5 this week. They were, in order, Anquan Boldin (32), Austin Collie (29), Lance Moore (26), Roy Williams (23), Brandon Lloyd (22), Brandon Marshall (22), and Mike Wallace (22). What do I take away from this? For starters, out of these seven players, only two are the #1 receivers on their team (Boldin and Marshall). Interestingly, they were both offseason acquisitions. Also, of those seven, only three have what I would call top tier QBs throwing them the ball, in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo. Say what you want about Romo but I view him as a top tier QB.
   
   Now, the biggest question on fantasy owners' minds is, "Which of these performances are for real and which are one time things?" Well, I want to label Boldin and Marshall as those most likely to repeat these types of games. They're the top receivers on their offenses. The players I would say not to bother with are Moore, Lloyd, and Williams. Not that they don't have the talent, but I just think that they are too low on the pecking order to string together any sort of fantasy consistency. Which brings me to my last point.
   
   I think that Collie and Wallace are for real and that their performances on Sunday are the most impressive of the bunch. Each are young players in their 2nd year and each have dynamic QBs throwing them the ball (even though Roethlisberger isn't back yet). And each have proven veterans lining up opposite them at the line (Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne, for those of you who didn't know). But which receiver will ultimately be more consistent out of Collie and Wallace? If I had to choose, I think I'd go with Collie. Wallace might end up with better numbers but that's because he's a deep threat. He was only targeted 4 times on Sunday (granted, he caught three of them for 100 and 2 TDs) but Collie was targeted 16 times! The only player with more targets this week was Brandon Marshall. So, in summary, both are for real. I'd probably start each one every week from here on out until they show otherwise.
   
   
2. What is up with the San Francisco 49ers? This is a team that I had at 13-3 in the preseason. Well, I'm not wrong yet. All they need to do is win out. But a week after putting up a great fight against the New Orleans Saints, they go to Kansas City and get embarrassed. If not for a meaningless last second TD, they would have lost 31-3. Which would have meant that in games against the Chiefs and Seahawks (who had a combined 9-23 last year), the 49ers would be outscored 62-9. It is most certainly time to panic in San Francisco.
   
   It's easy to call San Francisco the biggest disappointment so far this year. Who else has been disappointing? Another California team, the San Diego Chargers. They were beaten by Seattle 27-20, despite outgaining the Seahawks 518-271. Both of their losses have come against, guess who, the Chiefs and Seahawks. Is it time to panic in San Diego? Not quite, but I would keep my finger close to the button.
   
   
3. Alright, let's give some love to the big surprises of the year. I've already discussed them above but certainly the Chiefs and Seahawks top the list. I'm still not convinced by the Chiefs but this certainly helped them in my book. Cassel actually didn't look awful, for a change, and they are one of two 3-0 teams (the other being Pittsburgh). However, I want to see the Chiefs win a meaningful game on the road before I jump onboard.
   
   The Seahawks are a weird team this year. They look great against San Francisco, get thumped by Denver, and then play a great half against San Diego followed by an unimpressive half against San Diego. So which team are they? I say...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with the bad one. And this is why. As Philip Rivers and the Chargers got rolling in the second half yesterday, who bailed out the Seahawks? It wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. It wasn't Justin Forsett. It wasn't the defense. It wasn't even the coaching. It was Leon Washington's two kick return TDs. If you're relying on your kick returner to singlehandedly get you points, you won't win many games. Also, this was the first game that I saw the Seahawks give Forsett the carries he deserves. He's easily the best back they have but has been inexplicably forced to share carries with Julius Jones and Washington. But, today, he was given 17 of the team's 21 carries (Hasselbeck had 3, Washington had 1). I told you to hold onto him, fantasy owners.
   
   
4. Fantasy MVP...Kyle Orton? Yep, believe it or not, Orton has been electric so far this year. He went into this game as the 8th best QB and then threw for 476 yards. The worrying bit is that he only had 1 TD but I think that's more of a product of Denver's less than stellar receivers than Orton's inefficiencies. With bye weeks starting up next week, he's a more than capable fill in and could even turn out to be a solid fantasy starter. In fact, he's currently the 4th fantasy QB (granted, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have yet to play). Still, don't sleep on the Orton.
   
   
5. The fearsome Ravens defense versus Peyton Hillis. Advantage, Hillis. Yep, that's right. The same Ravens defense who rarely allows a 100 yard rusher gave up 144 yards and a TD to Hillis, who was filling in for injured starter Jerome Harrison. I think he made a pretty good case to get the starting job, don't you? Did you know that he's scored a rushing TD in three straight games? Do you know what other running backs have done that this year? That's right. None.
   
   
6. It was meant to be a shootout in Houston. Instead, it was just the Cowboys shooting. Tony Romo looked pretty good, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Matt Schaub...didn't, as he went for 241, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Expect Romo to continue to put up good numbers and, also, expect Schaub's stats to go up. This was an off day for just about everyone on the Texans.
   
   
7. I don't normally talk about kickers here but two kickers missed relatively easy game winners today. First, and ugliest, was New Orleans' Garrett Hartley. He's missed 3/7 on the year so far and even the ones that he's made haven't been pretty. And, after he missed a 29 yarder in overtime today, I'd be surprised if he has a job for much longer. The Saints have reportedly been looking at John Carney. So we'll see what happens there.
   
   In other news, we have Sebastian Janikowski, who is known for being scary looking and having a monster leg. Fun fact: he was also drafted in the 1st round back in 2000. Janikowski has now missed field goals in all three games this year, including a 3/6 effort today, culminating in a 32 yard miss that would've won the game. Instead, he pushed it left and the Cardinals escaped with a win. Sad for Raiders fans, yes, especially after he made a 54 yarder in the 1st quarter. But, as Oakland RB Darren McFadden said, "If he kicked that ball 100 times, he's going to make 99 of them. It just so happened that he missed that one." Basically, even if he has the talent, I wouldn't want to be relying on Janikowski as my fantasy kicker. Or Hartley, for that matter.
   
   
8. Nice performances by 3rd year QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who has been criticized for not performing well on the road, went into New Orleans and beat the reigning Super Bowl champs while throwing for 228 and 2 TDs. His numbers weren't spectacular but he didn't commit any turnovers which is a big help when you play a good team like the Saints. But, even with this performance, I'm not about ready to call Ryan a fantasy starter.
   
   Flacco, on the other hand, could be. A week after the worst performance of his career, Flacco got to play around with new target Anquan Boldin, going on to throw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with Boldin catching 142 of those yards and all of the TDs. Next, Flacco gets a tough Steelers defense. I'd be nervous about starting him for that game but you can do a whole lot worse. I have Flacco as a top 10 QB from this point onward.
   
   And, last but not least, Chad Henne. Last week, I said it was time to push the panic button and drop Henne. Not so fast, everybody! This was the Henne that we thought was going to be a sleeper fantasy QB. 363 and 2 TDs against a good Jets pass defense (okay, they were missing Revis) but he looked good. If you dropped him, sorry and try and pick him back up. If you're still holding onto him, well, you're smarter than me.

I'm in the situation on one of my teams where I have a heavy reliance on the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys, arguably the three most disappointing teams so far this year. I think that both the Cowboys and Chargers can right the ship. 49ers...I dunno. But, that's all for today. The Packers visit the Bears on Monday night in what looks to be a great divisional battle. Rodgers vs. Cutler. Can somebody say shootout?