Week 1: What I Learned From Sunday

Well, Sunday's games have all wrapped up. And I learned a lot from those games, both from a fantasy perspective and a real world perspective.

1. I want nothing to do with Jason Campell.
   Seriously. Absolutely nothing. He was 22/37 today for 180 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick but he also fumbled twice, losing one. Yes, he was better than JaMarcus Russell but, seriously, who isn't? Campbell grabbed up some garbage time yards which his fantasy owners appreciate. But if you're a fantasy owner and you're starting Jason Campbell in Week 1 then you:
   a) Are a blood relative of Jason Campbell
   b) Do not know how to play fantasy football
   c) Are Al Davis
   Or some combination of the three. My suggestion: sever all ties with Jason Campbell, if you haven't done so already.
   
   
2. Michael Vick vs. Kevin Kolb.
   Those were some interesting post game comments from Michael "Who Let the Dogs Out" Vick. To paraphrase, Vick said something along the lines of "If I had been out there for all four quarters, we might not have lost." But Reid maintained that Kolb was the starter as long as he was healthy. But Vick looked like the Vick of old and if Kolb isn't playing next week because of his concussion, Vick could be a valuable fill in starter for fantasy.
   
   
3. Great Expectations Revisited.
   Looking back at my predictions in my Great Expecations post, I'm proud to say that I was pretty accurate. I nailed Jay Cutler and Chris Johnson to have great weeks, Kyle Orton ended up having good but not great numbers (just as I said he would), Cadillac Williams got 9 fantasy points (which was better than Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Michael Turner, Joseph Addai, and Jerome Harrison, to name a few), and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had almost identical yardage games with Brown grabbing the TD. I was also right on Tony Gonzalez being a bad play against Pittsburgh (2 catches for 35 yards) but he'll be fine this year.
   
   Alright, here's where I was kinda wrong. Johnny Knox was good but not great against Detroit but Cutler looked to him seven times so I still think his numbers will improve. Santana Moss was good but not great against Dallas (6 catches for 77 yards) but McNabb looked to him early and often. Expect a pretty good year from the veteran. Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow were each targeted six times and reeled in four catches for 47 and 32 yards respectively but each has a good quarterback throwing them the ball (I thought Josh Freeman particularly looked good in a win over Cleveland) and should still put up good numbers this year. No need to panic.
   
   And now, where I was really wrong. Michael Crabtree had two catches for 18 yards on a whopping 8 targets. This was on a day where the entire 49ers team looked out of sync against Seattle (Seattle?! Are you kidding me?). The running game could not get going, Alex Smith looked like his old terrible self, and even the defense looked bad. I'm not saying you need to be worried but, from someone who had San Francisco going 13-3 and making a deep playoff run, I'm worried. Derek Anderson also played a good game in St. Louis this year. Sure, it was against St. Louis but he threw for 297 yards with 1 TD and, most importantly, no turnovers. But I still wouldn't start him anytime soon.
   
   Last but not least is a call which, on paper, looks wrong but I still believe I got right: Rashard Mendenhall would not do well against Atlanta. Prior to his 50 yard game winning TD scamper in OT, Mendenhall had 21 carries for 70 yards. 3.4 ypc. Not spectacular. But that final run bumped him up to 5th best running back of the week and had me shaking my fist in annoyance that he would look to prove me wrong. But I still don't like him for where he was drafted.
   
   
4. Arian Foster is Legit.
   I admit that I was not one of those who was aboard the Arian Foster bandwagon at the beginning of the year. I thought he was a back that would put up solid numbers based on sheer bulk of carries and had him listed at 24th among RBs, just between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. But on a day where Matt Schaub threw for barely over 100 yards, Foster placed the Texans squarely on his back and ran for a team record 231 yards and added 3 TDs, a 41 point fantasy effort. In one of my leagues, I benched him in favor of Cedric Benson (9 fantasy points) and Knowshon Moreno (12 fantasy points). I won't make that mistake again. For those of you who are lucky enough to have him on your roster, congrats on that 7th round steal. You've got a top RB in your hands.
   
   
5. Paging San Francisco...
   Can somebody please tell the San Francisco 49ers that the season has started? Because I don't think they showed up for Week 1. They were dismantled by Seattle 31-6, a team that ditched their top WR and one of their best CBs during the preseason. SF looked terrible for pretty much the entire game and this is where I think it went awry.
   
   On SF's first drive, they have first and goal from the 8. Alex Smith completes a TD pass to Josh Morgan which is challenged and then overturned. They proceed to then run for 2 yards with Frank Gore and then throw him another 1 yard pass. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: From the Seattle 15, Smith throws incomplete to Crabtree, completes 9 yard pass to Gore, and Gore runs for no gain. Result: Failed 4th down conversion as Smith throws incomplete to Moran Norris.
   
   Seattle: 3 and Out. Next SF drive: 1st and goal from the 9. Smith completes to Delanie Walker for 6 yards, Gore runs for 1 yard, Norris runs for 1 yard. Result: Field Goal.
   
   Seattle then goes on to drive for a TD, intercept Alex Smith, score a TD on the ensuing drive, make SF go 3 and out before going in for halftime. At this point, 14-3 Seattle. After the half, Seattle gets a pick 6, forces a 3 and out, and scores a TD on the next ensuing drive. Now, it's 28-6. After SF's first two FGs, Frank Gore, hands down, the best player on the 49ers, gained only 19 total yards on 8 touches. Ummm...guys? Give him the ball? Maybe???
   
   
6. I Think Wes Welker is Fine.
   Who had an ACL injury? Welker only went caught 8 balls for 64 yards and 2 TDs in his first regular season game since tearing his ACL just before the playoffs last year. I managed to grab Welker late in a lot of my leagues (in one, with the last pick of the 7th round) as a borderline #2/#3 receiver. He's currently the 5th best WR. The time to buy low has passed. If you grabbed him, pat yourself on the back.
   
   
7. Hakeem Nicks is the Top Fantasy Receiver?
   If I went to a room filled with the nation's top fantasy football experts and said, "Raise your hand if you think Hakeem Nicks will be the top fantasy receiver in Week 1," I would have been looking at a bunch of filled pockets. But Nicks managed to rack up four catches for 75 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday. Can he keep up the pace? No, of course not. But if there was ever a time to sell high, it's now. I'm not saying trade Nicks, but if you can get a good deal for him, now's the time to pull the trigger.
   
   
8. Time for the Cowboys to Snag a New Right Tackle?
   I watched Sunday Night's Cowboys at Redskins game and a couple of things stood out at me.
   a) Donovan McNabb looked like the Donovan of old. If you're desperate for a fantasy QB, you could do a whole lot worse.
   b) Tony Romo looked hesitant, but smart. Romo finished with a stat line of 31/47 for 282 and 1 TD but didn't seem to make many bad throws (okay, there were two on that final drive but Washington's secondary have arms all the way down to their fingers) and made all the right decisions. Except on...
   c) Whoever on Dallas called that play at the end of the first half might be legally retarded. For those of you who didn't see it, here's the gist. Washington is up 3-0 with about 4 seconds left before halftime. Dallas is on their own 36 and it's 1st and 20. Romo drops back, steps up in the pocket and throws almost perfectly sideways to Tashard Choice, who is standing at the 37. With about 9 defenders between him and the endzone, the logical choice is to either go down or run out of bounds. Instead, he decides he's going to try and score and runs into 3 Redskins, including DeAngelo Hall, who strips the ball and runs untouched for a TD. It was pants-on-head retarded and is in the running for bonehead play of the year. That and, of course...
   c) Alex Barron, penalty king of the NFL. The Cowboys acquired him from St. Louis in the offseason for linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Now, Cowboys fans are wanting a trade back. Trailing by 6 in the closing minutes, Romo lead the Cowboys down the field and, with about four seconds left on the clock, stepped up in the pocket and fired to a wide open Roy Williams in the end zone. And, unbelievably, that sentence does not end with "and the ball is dropped by Williams!" Instead, it ended with a catch and the potential winning touchdown. Until...."Holding. Number 71 offense." And since the penalty occurred as time expired, the down could not be replayed. End. Of. Game. I'll be surprised if Barron is starting next time the Cowboys take the field. It's a shame, because that would have given Romo a more productive fantasy day and overshadowed a 10 catch, 146 yard, 1 TD effort from Miles Austin, who is proving that his new contract is money well spent.
   
   
9. Unfamiliar Names in the Week's Top 10 WRs.
   The current Top 10 WR feature some familiar faces (Chad Ochocinco, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith O.G.) but also has some newbies. Austin Collie actually outperformed Reggie Wayne (19 points to 15), just as ESPN's Matthew Berry predicted he would and would be a good pickup for teams in need of a WR. Remember, he caught 7 TDs last year. Sure, Berry said it would be Pierre Garcon but his theory that Reggie Wayne would not be the Colts' top receiver still is sound. Also up there is Tennessee's Nate Washington, who scored on a deep pass from Vince Young, and Arizona's Steve Breaston, who caught 7 passes for 132 yards. Larry Fitzgerald only caught 3. Now, some will see this as, "Hey, look who Derek Anderson's favorite target is! Steve Breaston!" But don't be fooled. Breaston was targeted 7 times, Fitzgerald 15. Expect Fitz's numbers to increase and Breaston's to drop.

Alright guys, that just about does it. Be sure to keep an eye open later in the week for Week 2's Great Expectations, Do Not Want!, and a game by game breakdown of players to start and who to bench. And also be on the lookout for Tim's first edition of Power Rankings and some more predictions.